The next week sees two elections taking place that are both of huge significance for Ireland. On Sunday French voters go the polls for the first of two rounds of voting in the parliamentary elections; on Thursday British voters will elect a new government; and on Sunday July 7th the French second round takes place. By the time the votes are counted the politics of our nearest neighbour and our nearest EU neighbour (in the memorable description of French ambassador Vincent Guérend) will be transformed. Ireland cannot but be affected.
So what’s the outlook? Well, there’s good news and bad news, as they say. First, the good news: the British general election will see the rejection of the Conservative Party which has since 2015 formed a succession of the worst ever British governments. Those administrations, led by David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak have set new standards in ill-judgment, ineptitude, venality, dishonesty and cant.
Don’t take my word for it. Trust the evidence of your own eyes and ears. Or take the judgment of the UK’s most distinguished and respected academics, political analysts and commentators: in a forthcoming book about the last 14 years of Conservative government, The Conservative Effect, to be published shortly by the Cambridge University Press, editors Anthony Seldon and Tom Egerton summarise the period thus: “By 2024, Britain’s standing in the world was lower, the union was less strong, the country in some respects less equal, the population less well protected, growth more sluggish with the outlook poor, public services underperforming and largely unreformed, while respect for the institutions of the British state, including the civil service, judiciary and the police, was lower, as it was for other bodies, including the universities and the BBC, repeatedly attacked not least by government, ministers and right-wing commentators ...
“Overall, it is hard to find a comparable period in history of a Conservative, or other, government which achieved so little or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state,” the book concludes.
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So there you go: the worst government ever.
To pick up the pieces the UK will turn to Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who will win a thumping majority. Since the farce of Truss’s brief premiership – she, you may recall, was outlasted by a lettuce, tanked the currency, ratcheted up mortgage repayments and handed beyond doubt the next election to Labour –, Starmer has had one maxim: don’t screw it up. Observers have dubbed it the “Ming vase strategy”: be as careful as if you are carrying a priceless and delicate artefact. Whatever you do, don’t trip up. Take no risks. Play it safe. And, fair play, up he has not screwed it. He will become prime minister next Friday, the first Labour leader to win a majority since Tony Blair in 1997.
What does it mean for Ireland? Blair’s Labour government engaged in the most intense, productive and consequential period of co-operation between London and Dublin since independence. Of course, the conflict is over now (partly as a result of that close relationship) but the future of Northern Ireland – the sustainability of its self-governing institutions, the course of its broader politics, its constitutional trajectory – remains unclear. What is very clear, though, is that the North works better when the two governments are closely engaged on a common agenda and working towards shared goals. That did not happen with recent Conservative governments. It is likely to become possible again.
Labour has pledged to repeal the controversial Northern Ireland legacy bill, which has been challenged in the European Court of Human Rights by the Irish Government. Despite the fevered hopes of some united Irelanders, Starmer – an avowed supporter of the union – will not call a Border poll. But he might, eventually, say what the specific conditions are for one. Irish and British officials would settle for a renewal of the close relations and productive co-operation of the past.
[ Stephen Collins: Rishi Sunak gets a bad rap but he was good for IrelandOpens in new window ]
Now the bad news.
French president Emmanuel Macron’s hasty gamble in calling elections for the country’s parliament looks set to backfire, with his centrist party likely to be crunched between the far-right and far-left. Polls suggest that the far-right Rassemblement National (RN or National Rally) – previously the National Front – will be the largest party, with Macron then pressured to ask Jordan Bardella, charismatic young second-in-command (to Marine Le Pen) of the RN, to become prime minister.
[ Jordan Bardella: the far-right TikTok king gunning for France’s premiershipOpens in new window ]
A far-right government in France would be an earthquake for the EU. Though the RN no longer promises to leave the bloc (thanks to the Brexit disaster), it would mean a government that is Eurosceptic, nationalist, pro-Russian, anti-immigrant and committed to negotiating opt-outs for France from many EU rules. France’s place, with Germany, at the heart of the EU would be at an end. The push for a more integrated EU, with greater defence co-operation and Macron’s dream of “strategic autonomy” – ie the ability to act on its own – as a response to the Russian threat would peter out. The character of the EU would change, its place in the world inevitably weakened.
A showdown between the European Commission and Paris over France’s deficit spending and constant flouting of EU budget rules would probably be inevitable. The cost of French borrowing is already edging up in anticipation. If you think that none of this affects Ireland, cast your mind back to the last time there was a Eurozone debt wobble.
An anti-EU government in Paris would make Brexit look like a walk in the park. Brexit Britain was an inflamed appendix, not pleasant to remove, but not life-threatening; a Eurosceptic France would a malignant cancer in the heart of the EU. Whatever way you look at it, that is very bad for Ireland.
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