Protestants in Northern Ireland want special arrangements to guarantee a share of power if there is a united Ireland but this is opposed by voters in the Republic.
This is according to the latest findings from a major research project on attitudes to a possible unification and related issues.
A majority of respondents in Northern Ireland (56 per cent), including an overwhelming majority of voters from a Protestant background (73 per cent), want to see specific rules in a possible future united Ireland that would require the Government to include a party from a British unionist background.
But voters in the south are against this by a margin of almost two to one.
More than seven in 10 voters from a Protestant background in the North (71 per cent) agree that at least two of the 15 Cabinet ministers should be allocated to a unionist party in a future all-Ireland government, with more than half (53 per cent) of all Northern voters supporting the idea.
But the South says no: just 29 per cent agree, with 45 per cent disagreeing (16 per cent neither agree nor disagree).
[ Strong desire for continued British-Irish links after unity, survey showsOpens in new window ]
Protestant voters in Northern Ireland also want unionists in the Government of a united Ireland to have the power to veto proposed legislation which they believe would “harm a fundamental interest or right of people in the island who identify as British or unionist”.
But less than one-in-five voters in the Republic (18 per cent) support this idea, with 52 per cent opposed.
Participants in the surveys were presented with a number of options for how governments might be constructed, if referendums on unity in both parts of the island were to be passed in the future.
They included: an extension of the current southern model; an extension of the current northern model; an “inclusive coalition” model (where all parties that passed a minimum threshold of seats have a right to be part of the Government); the “quota” model, where two Cabinet seats would be reserved for unionists; and the “territorial” model, which would guarantee parties from Northern Ireland would have representation in Government.
No option is universally popular. However, the “inclusive coalition” – which could mean a Government comprised of several southern and northern parties, nationalist and unionist – was the least unpopular.
That finding was reinforced by the deliberative forums – managed discussions among a group – conducted to examine the issue.
[ So the North still says no. But for how much longer?Opens in new window ]
The findings are part of the North and South research project for which two simultaneous opinion polls were conducted each year for the past three years. Each poll was conducted by Ipsos – Ipsos Northern Ireland in the North and Ipsos B&A in the South – and surveyed more than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions.
In addition, two deliberative forums were held this year, one in each jurisdiction, to allow selected participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. The surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.
The North and South project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and the ARINS Project. ARINS – Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South – is a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The ARINS/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.
