You might reasonably argue that, after a humiliating 2025 edition, this annual exercise in soothsaying should take itself into quiet retirement.
Over the past decade or so we have managed, mostly sight unseen, to guess about half the best-picture nominations from a year’s remove. Yet last year we got just a single title right, and that was something of a special case. Dune: Part Two was the only one of the final 10 to have screened at time of writing, so we already knew it was as well received as its nominated predecessor. Even in early 2020, when half of the films ended up not opening (you will recall why), we still managed to get three right.
What went wrong? We foolishly gambled on another two sequels to previously nominated films. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga landed softly. Joker: Folie à Deux was a disaster. Madness? Maybe. But we are still going with two follow-ups for 2026. Can you honestly say we’re wrong?
Steve McQueen’s Blitz and Pablo Larraín’s Maria were perfectly reasonable bets, but the former was loved by nobody and the latter was loved by nobody but me. Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch and Andrea Arnold’s Bird were not insane picks from that distance. John Crowley’s ultimately drippy We Live in Time has less logic behind it.
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After two hugely successful outings at the Oscars, Yorgos Lanthimos seemed worth a place, but Kinds of Kindness was a little too taxingly odd. We are – spoiler alert – risking humiliation by leaving off Lanthimos’s upcoming Bugonia from the current list. The source material, Jang Joon-hwan’s Korean film Save the Green Planet!, feels just a bit too wacky for the academy. Our 10th pick last year, A Real Pain, was a likely nominee right until the last moment. So for that we shan’t apologise.
A few more notes on the list. Most years a likely inclusion has already premiered at Sundance – in 2024 it was A Real Pain – but we can’t quite get behind Train Dreams or If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. So no Sundance. In recent times, not least thanks to the increasing appearance of Cannes- and Venice-premiered films, non-English-language titles have figured strongly, but such breakouts are almost impossible to predict. Who saw Anatomy of a Fall coming back in 2023? We therefore go with 10 English-language titles, aware that at least two in other tongues will surprise us.
In no particular order ...
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
Has to be here. Three of Anderson’s films have been nominated for best picture. That said, Inherent Vice, one of his least garlanded films, was, like (we’re told) One Battle After Another, much in thrall to the hard-to-adapt Thomas Pynchon. The rumour that the new film is a loose adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland could, of course, prove to be unfounded. Leonardo DiCaprio and Regina Hall star. Currently down for August release. Cannes premiere therefore a possibility.
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
Directed by James Cameron
Don’t yell at me. I’m just the messenger. Both previous episodes were nominated, and the opening film was favourite to win until eventually passed out by The Hurt Locker. They are the first and third highest-grossing films of all time. You can blab all you want about “no cultural footprint”. Both the general public and the academy voters love these blue epics. It will need to be much worse than The Way of Water, from 2022, to fail. With us at Christmas.
MARTY SURPREME
Directed by Josh Safdie
Here’s an entertaining dilemma from the Safdie brothers. Josh Safdie’s ping-pong film starring Timothée Chalamet or Benny Safdie’s wrestling film starring Dwayne Johnson? One has to get in. But surely both can’t. We’re going for Josh’s Marty Supreme over Benny’s The Smashing Machine. Of course, the Safdies may be a little too funky for the academy – their adored Uncut Gems scored not a single nomination – but Timmy in a true-life period sports drama sounds doable.
HAMNET
Directed by Chloé Zhao
Ah, the smell of Oscar bait in the morning. Chloé Zhao, Oscar-winning maker of Nomadland, directs the Irish nominees Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal in an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s much-admired novel about William Shakespeare’s grief for his late son. Joe Alwyn and Emily Watson are also about the place. There is every chance it could be first-rate – and, if so, there is no limit to how many nominations could come its way.
FRANKENSTEIN
Directed by Guillermo del Toro
Another amusing quandary. Del Toro’s take on Mary Shelley’s indestructible novel or Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride!, a variation on Bride of Frankenstein with (her again) Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale? Both really could get in, but they love del Toro – winner of best picture for The Shape of Water – so much they even nominated his indifferently received Nightmare Alley. The Bride! may be a bit too gamy. Intriguingly, release dates suggest the two films could land together at Venice.
WICKED FOR GOOD
Directed by Jon M Chu
What do you want from me? It feels as if his first Wicked film got into the final 10 comfortably. Those who turned out for that romp will surely all be back in line for the conclusion. And yet. There are questions. Critics argue that the best songs are in the first half. Might the less enthusiastic response to this property outside the United States drag it down? All reasonable arguments. But there is huge momentum behind this Christmas release.
AFTER THE HUNT
Directed by Luca Guadagnino
True, Guadagnino has a fitful record with the academy. Neither Queer nor Challengers, his 2024 releases, landed a single nomination. But this sounds like the sort of weighty, star-studded material that could win back the favour he found with Call Me by Your Name. Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri and Andrew Garfield star in the tale of a university professor in hot water. Due in October. So Venice, where Queer premiered, beckons again.
MATERIALISTS
Directed by Celine Song
Advance Oscar prognosticators have been a bit soft on Celine Song’s follow-up to Past Lives, her best-picture nominee. Why? Dakota Johnson and Chris Evans star. The Oscar-friendly A24 distributes in the United States. The problem, one supposes, is that it sounds a little too “light” for the academy: Johnson plays a contemporary matchmaker in New York. That never stopped Woody Allen at the height of his career. If it works, it’s surely in with a chance.
THE WAY OF THE WIND
Directed by Terrence Malick
This counts as a punt. The academy has nominated only two Malick titles for best picture – The Thin Red Line and The Tree of Life – but, if he returned to form, they would surely love to honour a legend of the industry. His study of Jesus Christ began shooting a full six years ago, but insiders believe it will finally be ready for Cannes in May. Géza Röhrig, from Son of Saul, plays Jesus. Mark Rylance is Satan.
JAY KELLY
Directed by Noah Baumbach
Baumbach’s last film, White Noise, landed with an awful splat, but Marriage Story, his previous release, secured six nominations, including a win in best supporting actress for Laura Dern. So why bet against this coming-of-age tale, with its incredible cast? George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Eve Hewson, Greta Gerwig, Riley Keough, Patrick Wilson and Jim Broadbent join a returning Dern. It’s a Netflix release, so no chance of Cannes. Another likely Venice contender.
Ten more strong possibilities
- If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Bugonia
- The Smashing Machine
- Die, My Love
- Highest 2 Lowest
- The Bride!
- The Phoenician Scheme
- The Life of Chuck
- Deliver Me from Nowhere
- Sentimental Value
