The steady shift in numbers when the World Economic Forum publishes its Future of Work report each year is evidence of how difficult it is to be exact about the medium-term impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the employment landscape. How big all those figures are, though, leaves room for doubt regarding just how much it is going to change things.
This year’s report, published in the lead up to next week’s meeting in Davos, is no exception.
Surveying more 1,000 businesses employing some 14 million workers, the report talks about 170 million jobs being created and 92 million being displaced. More than a billion are expected to undergo significant change.
It cites an estimation by company leaders that, of every 100 staff, 59 will require upskilling in the next five years. Of these, it is anticipated 29 will get it and remain in their own roles, 19 will get it and be redeployed, and 11 will not and will end up leaving.
Those sort of numbers may not do much to address what Audrey O’Mahony, talent and organisation lead at Accenture UK and Ireland, describes as the “trust gap” around AI.
Chief executives, she maintains, “actually don’t want to get rid of their people, that’s what our research is telling us. They really want the workforce to go on this journey with them”. But, she adds, many are not sure their workforce is up for all of the challenges involved.
You can get going on building the skills you will need in the future now. You don’t actually have to wait for the technology because we already know what they are
“Employees, on the other hand,” she says, “don’t trust this technology, and they don’t necessarily trust intent,” but they are “screaming out for relevance”.
Uncertainty on that scale creates huge opportunity for consultants as senior managers seek guidance on how to navigate what will in many cases be substantial and critically important change.
Accenture has invested heavily in the area, more than €3 billion in various ways to date, it says, leaving it well placed, O’Mahony believes, to capitalise as businesses here ramp up engagement with the technology this year.
Marketing campaigns by rivals are a reminder that other AI consultants are available: O’Mahony, of course, suggests Accenture is ahead of the pack, in part due to a tool called Navigator which looks at existing workforces across 19 industries and models how they would look if AI in its latest form was widely applied.
“We looked at 900 specific professions across those 19 industries,” she says. “We went down to a micro level in terms of the work that gets done, and then we looked at 9,000 tasks that happened across those organisations.
“We basically put our arms around the universe of work and asked, ‘If you were to apply today’s technology to how that work gets done, what would that actually look like in terms of the scale of disruption?’ And you can just see the impact,” she says as a screen at the company’s Dock innovation facility on Hanover Quay displays a list of industries and hints at the scale of change they are facing.
Banking followed by insurance are at the top of the list followed by software and platforms then communications and media.
“Look at banking at the top of the chart,” says O’Mahony. “Look at insurance. Fifty per cent of the work that gets done in those industries today could actually be executed and completed by technology on its own.” This is right now she is talking about, not five years down the line, and with, she says “the worst version of this technology we are ever going to have”.
“That is an unbelievably sobering statistic for all of us to think about, the complexities that feed into a statement like that, but also the opportunities that they bring. But that’s what we think it would look like.”
This, O’Mahony is at pains to point out, does not mean half the jobs in the sector would be lost. Another chart involves a complex mix of coloured lines showing how some roles remain unchanged, more evolve and some are replaced with entirely new skills.
Chief executives actually don’t want to get rid of their people, that’s what our research is telling us. They really want the workforce to go on this journey with them
There may be fewer people involved in administration, crunching numbers or customer calls for example but there will be more, it is anticipated, overseeing the technology itself and developing relationships with clients. Accenture, she says, can tell clients what these new roles will be and what will be required of the people doing them.
At the end of the process, though, the model suggests a surplus of 11 per cent of whole time equivalent roles in banking. During a presentation to an Ibec conference in October talking about a similar exercise with regard to a sales team, O’Mahony mentioned a 15 per cent figure.
Companies will, she acknowledges, have the option of taking that as a saving and the WEF report suggests 41 per cent intend to do just that, at least to some extent. An Ibec report published last month on the manufacturing sector, however, found that while one in four companies did indeed see AI as a way of reducing headcount, 37 per cent identified its potential to generate growth, and 42 per cent believed it would help drive greater profitability.
These, says O’Mahony, are the areas employers would do well to focus on.
“Most shareholders, most boards, most CEOs don’t care about cost,” she says. “What they care about is sustainable growth. Cost is baked into that, sure, but what they’re really asking is: ‘Where’s my new market coming from? How do I get bigger customer penetration? How do I understand my customers better? How do I service them in a way that’s completely differentiated in the market?’
“Most organisations, are obsessed about growth and it’s been an interesting one for us, because when we talk to our clients about this, they’re actually saying: ‘You’re telling me, I can take those 11 people, and repurpose then into new growth roles?’ That’s really what we’re seeing as the trend,” she says.
“The organisations that think about it from a human centric approach, about ‘how can we get the most out of that 11 per cent in this example’, adds Tom Stanton, a data science manager with the firm. “They’re the ones that are going to see the biggest long-term gains into the future, rather than just an immediate saving. So it’s a bit of an investment play for companies,”
Ireland, O’Mahony suggests, has been a little slower to fully engage to date with all of this than its international rivals. The WEF report suggests a fractionally higher rate of exposure here than in Germany, but a slightly lower one than in India.
In the Irish banking sector, she feels this relative lack of momentum may be partly attributable to the relatively few players in the market. “We don’t have the same intense competition that you have, say, in Spain where you’ve got 50 different banks all competing,” she says.
More generally, she says, the depth and length of the recession here impacted on investment in the sort of cloud-based technology that O’Mahony contends is a vital stepping stone to large-scale generative AI integration.
“But we are maybe still not quite where we could be, given that we are so innovative, given that we have a heritage of an incredibly talented and tech-led workforce. In general, I think the adoption in Ireland is slower than what we’re seeing in the rest of the world and we need to be alive to that because our future isn’t guaranteed,” she says. “It’s sort of a moment for leaders here across education, government, industry, to come together and ask: ‘What are we doing around this?’”
Some sectors are clearly ahead of others, but the potential is being eyed up everywhere, not just in those more obvious elements of the private sector.
AI’s much-reported application in healthcare, particularly diagnostics, is just one of the myriad ways in which the Government will be involved in its adoption.
The process has already started, O’Mahony suggests, citing the rather simple example of a government department that Accenture works with. It recently used AI to complete a database of its customers, something officials said might previously have taken two or three years but which was ultimately completed in a fraction of that time.
Fifty per cent of the work that gets done in the banking and insurance industries today could actually be executed and completed by technology on its own, and with the worst version of this technology we are ever going to have
“So you can start quite small but to scale it, really scale it, you’ve got to start thinking about the scale of investment required,” O’Mahony says. “The big enabler for it is your digital core. You’ve got to talk about responsibility, and how do people feel about it? You’ve got to talk about value. And you’ve got to spend a lot of time talking about talent, how you bring the workforce with you.”
It’s key to communicate a sense that, for most staff, investment in this technology is an investment in their future, she says, citing the example of a credit manager in a bank.
By taking over much of the administrative and analytical workload, “Gen AI equips them to double down on a space in which only humans can make a difference. Gen AI can’t create that value for you. It can’t go out into the market and be empathetic, exercise really good judgment, build relationships with clients”.
She adds: “The potential we see in Ireland and globally for good, we’re really positive about. Really, really positive. But we’re not sitting there going: ‘There are no jobs that are going to be impacted.’ We’re not saying there aren’t actors who will choose to go about things in a certain way. That will be a reality.
“But when we talk to CEOs about Gen AI, what they tell us is that they’re worried about their data sets, they’re worried about their client infrastructure, they’re worried about responsible AI. Now they’re really legitimate things to be worried about, but what they’re not adequately worried about,” she says, pointing to that role transformation chart, “is how they going to get their people to this side over here.
“There is a whole range of new skills that are coming that need to be in your organisation, and you can’t get value from Gen AI on its own. You’ve got to get it when you’ve built those human sensibilities around it. So across organisations now, we want to be activating our workforce on these learning journeys.”
Workforces know, for the most part, that change is coming and while many individuals will have concerns, O’Mahony contends, there is a widespread desire to be equipped for it.
At the moment, she says, engagement is not what it needs to be. “I think 43 per cent of employees are experimenting with Gen AI, so half the workforce today are being totally left behind. And in three years’ time, graduates will be coming into the workforce only knowing how to do assignments using Gen AI.
“So we have digital natives today and in a couple of years’ time, we’re going to have AI natives, people in our workforce with huge expectation around using this.”
The rest, O’Mahony suggests, need to be thinking about that, equipping themselves and being equipped. “And you can get going on building the skills you will need in the future now. You don’t actually have to wait for the technology because we already know what they are.”
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