The Department of Finance has delayed the publication of its Spring economic statement as the fallout from US tariffs clouds the outlook.
The department had been scheduled to publish its annual performance report this week but this has now been deferred until the end of the month because of the uncertainty posed by US tariffs.
A spokesman confirmed the document would “be published in the coming weeks”.
The report, which replaces the Stability Programme Update, outlines the department’s economic projections for the year ahead.
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It is understood officials want more time to assess the likely impact of tariffs on growth and employment here. At the publication of the department’s latest exchequer returns data last week, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe warned that tariffs would hit families, businesses and job creation.
He said the measures combined with the expected EU response could cost the Republic between 55,000 and 80,000 jobs over the medium term.
As the global stock market sell-off in response to US tariffs continued on Monday, the Economic and Social Research Institute’s Kieran McQuinn said it was too early to recast the institute’s forecasts for the Irish economy.
“It’s still fairly early days and I think you would want to see what retaliatory decisions are taken by the EU followed by the US response,” he said.
“Also, we would want to see what measures, if any, are identified for the pharma sector,” he said. The Republic exported more than €50 billion of pharma products to the US last year and the sector here remains the most exposed to Washington’s protectionist pivot.
However, it was not included in Mr Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement last week.
Mr McQuinn said the effects of tariffs on the 2025 outlook for Ireland might only be marginal. “It’s 2026 when they start to really kick in”.
Employers’ group Ibec said it was in the process of “scenario planning rather than accurately forecasting anything”.
“Our next set of forecasts next month will be a downgrade, but timing is key to understanding by how much,” the group’s chief economist, Ger Brady, said.
“If there are quick negotiations, the hit will be smaller but still significant. If the Trump administration is still saying in a months’ time or two months’ time, that it will stick to this path, then the global economy will be in a very difficult place,” he said.
“It’s been close to 100 years since we’ve had anything like this in the global economy, even then it was not a globalised economy. So, we are in the realm of scenario planning rather than accurately forecasting anything,” Mr Brady said.
“It is likely the global implications of these changes are going to be more significant than the direct impact of the tariffs announced last week,” he said.
“We already know from companies that they have stopped or slowed investment due to the uncertainty. There now is a material chance of a recession globally, given the scale of disruption that’s going to happen, particularly between the US and Asia which together have provided nearly all global growth in the past decade,” he said.
