Within weeks, planning applications for the last two of six offshore wind projects will be submitted to An Bord Pleanála. The planning authority is expected to give its verdict on the first, the North Irish Sea Array, being built by Norwegian company Statkraft and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners off north Dublin, in February.
This is a significant hurdle being cleared, involving €10 billion total investment if given the green light, delivering 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of power by decade end or soon after. Yet among key players in offshore wind, the view is less upbeat.
They seek greater clarity on a roadmap beyond that. As they see it, the right signals must be sent out internationally – to developers, investors and supply-chain operators. What would help is orderly scale-up without undue delays in these phase one projects (four have State contracts) with fixed-bottom turbines nearshore and shifting then to floating technologies out to sea in the 2030s.
Failure to do what’s promised – including 5GW offshore – and on halving carbon emissions by 2030 will come with a hefty compliance bill, when billions of euro in buying credits could be better spent on Ireland’s clean energy revolution, with a 37GW output by 2040 – (current demand is about 5GW).
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“The next five years present an opportunity to make unprecedented progress in transitioning to locally produced renewable energy and unlocking the next phase of Ireland’s economic development,” says Wind Energy Ireland (WEI) chief executive Noel Cunniffe.
[ Ireland’s failure to investigate floating wind farms is shamefulOpens in new window ]
Getting phase one done will build confidence in Ireland as a place in which to invest, he adds. “By 2029 we can deliver more cleaner and affordable power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses across Ireland and lay the foundations for Irish energy independence.”
Essential to that is to “create and resource a planning system that can build a zero-carbon society”, Cunniffe says; implementing the Planning and Development Act to make the process clearer and speed up decision making, while all planning authorities carry out their functions “consistent with Ireland’s climate obligations”.
Lots of nuts and bolts measures are required to support this: finalise long-awaited onshore wind energy development guidelines; align county development plans with national policy for onshore wind to ensure national and European energy objectives are met and approve the National Planning Framework to set targets for renewable energy at a regional and county level.
A combination of “State and policy” must reinforce the grid, with EirGrid instructed to start planning now for grid reinforcement projects to be delivered in the 2030s.
To bolster this, Cunniffe says, construction of key grid infrastructure projects, notably the North-South Interconnector, needs to be accelerated. The new government must “put in place investment frameworks for long-duration electricity storage”.
“There is no investment signal today for this and large infrastructure projects require certainty to secure financing,” he says.
Offshore may be where the abundance is but accelerating onshore wind is a big element of the transition, reinforced by a clear timetable for annual onshore renewables auctions to 2030 and cutting electricity prices by extending the duration of these contracts to 20 years.
[ ‘County colours’ platform compares wind energy contributions across RepublicOpens in new window ]
This can be further boosted by policy to streamline repowering and life extension of existing projects including “a presumption in favour of granting planning permission”, he says. Similarly, the lifetime of permissions for any new onshore wind farm should be extended to match the operational lifetime of the grid connection of up to 50 years.
When the wind is blowing, Ireland can lead Europe – yes, lead – in clean energy
— Val Cummins
The Department of the Taoiseach should actively engage and support the Accelerating Renewable Electricity Taskforce by ensuring full participation of relevant government departments and State agencies, Cunniffe says.
Those phase one projects are vitally important and the low-hanging fruit, says Val Cummins, chief impact officer with Simply Blue Group renewables company. They need to be followed by the new phase two offshore auction in 2025 and the second site must be developed within the south coast designated maritime area plan (D-map).
The second site is to generate 2GW of non-grid electricity using “private wires” to power green energy hubs, data centres or provide balancing services to the grid – typically from corporate power purchase agreements. This could be landed at a strategic location such as Whitegate in Cork harbour where supporting infrastructure exists. The 2GW step has yet to be enabled and resourced by the Government.
At this point, Cummins says the offshore renewables sector has no visibility beyond 2030, yet there is huge opportunity to take ownership by providing “a plan to unlock our energy abundance. It’s about us as a nation, that we are confident about building up [wind] resources, ultimately, to export”.
This needs to be complemented by port development; an enhanced grid, ultimately connecting to a European supergrid, developing floating technology, building supply and demand and “serving vital data centres”.
“This is about coupling our energy and digital future, and the last element we need is for the new minister to understand – as Bill Clinton said, this is about the economy stupid – it should be driven by the economic imperative,” says Cummins.
Critically, Cummins says there is now a template for doing D-maps – designating sites for development – anywhere off the Irish coast. “We have been told it could take two years for the next D-map. That is not acceptable,” she adds, when all D-maps should be finalised by end of 2026, including for floating wind.
In the west coast conditions of Ireland, where you have 18-metre wave height and a limited number of days where you can sail out to service and to deploy, they don’t have the turbines yet that can manage that
— Eamon Ryan
At present, it seems like two steps forward, three steps back, whereas all that should be doable and “top the list for the new minister for energy”.
“It’s time to unleash the mighty winds of the Atlantic for domestic decarbonisation, energy export, and to power those vitally important data centres. We’re sitting on a gold mine of renewable energy. When the wind is blowing, Ireland can lead Europe – yes, lead – in clean energy,” she adds.
Marine consultant Mark White echoes the need for accelerated action reinforced by clearer management lines across government departments; all collaborating closely on a common goal. This requires moving beyond the taskforce to a function/authority which can deliver. “There are at least 11 departments that have important and relevant roles,” with little or no co-ordination, he adds.
On planning approvals, White says discussions on biodiversity loss and visual impact from projects need to be reframed to prioritise “common good” decision making. Real data from existing offshore wind farms needs to be taken on board “which is showing very limited negative impacts on biodiversity and real positive impacts on fisheries – and should be highlighted to the public”.
In contrast, there are “real negative impacts” on biodiversity likely in “do nothing” or “do too little” scenarios such as changing population distributions as evidenced by herring and mackerel already going further north and new invasive species succeeding in new higher temperature habitats – that could be followed by much colder seawater regimes and more extreme impacts if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current collapses.
Outgoing Minister for Climate and Energy Eamon Ryan rejects the view trotted out in recent elections on the Green Party: “‘Oh, they’re not green at all. They don’t believe in floating offshore wind.’ I absolutely believe in floating offshore wind. But you’ve got to be honest with people; it’s not commercial now. It will take 10, 15 years and if it comes sooner, I’d be the happiest person alive.”
He has talked to chief executives of turbine manufacturers. “They say to me, in the west coast conditions of Ireland, where you have 18-metre wave height, and you’ve a limited number of days where you can sail out to service and to deploy, they don’t have the turbines yet that can manage that.”
While there is a push to build larger and larger turbines, “they all realise development of offshore wind now requires the Model T Ford moment, where you scale back to ... a 15-megawatt turbine, all ships designed to take that same turbine, so that you standardise and you reduce costs, and you’re not forever chasing your tail trying to get a bigger ship and learn how you put in a larger turbine”.
A robust long-term plan for the delivery of offshore wind in Ireland through the ORE Future Framework will ensure the ongoing progression of fixed-bottom offshore wind, while kick-starting floating offshore wind deployment, Cunniffe says.
Supported by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, WEI, which represents the Irish floating offshore sector, is working on four research projects to accelerate deployment and to improve floating technology.
“Floating wind needs to be embraced in a problem solving and innovative way – rather than in the current – ‘it’s difficult approach, and if we get enough bottom-mounted wind, we’re off the climate target hook’ – a strategy which is doomed to dismal failure,” White adds.
The essential element from a consumer point of view, he believes, “is to drive Ireland to having a really competitive/affordable energy market which self sustainable renewables can deliver” – and bring multiple benefits.
“Ireland can, and will, be energy independent,” Cunniffe says. “The next government will determine when this happens. Working together, we can build a future with cleaner air and thousands of green jobs in revitalised rural and coastal communities. We can build an Ireland where we have evolved beyond fossil fuels to our clean energy future.”
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