The Irish advertising market will grow 3.2 per cent next year to €1.32 billion after a rise of 3.1 per cent in 2023, but both print and television revenue will decline again in 2024, according to forecasts by media agency owner GroupM Ireland.
Print advertising will drop off by a further 5 per cent in 2024 after a 9 per cent plunge this year, it said. Within this, newspaper advertising will decline 4.6 per cent to €87.3 million, while magazine advertising will plummet 11.1 per cent to €8.5 million.
“Print continues to face significant challenges, despite the increased focus on digital offerings, as demand declines and production costs increase,” said GroupM, which is the media investment arm of global advertising giant WPP and led in Ireland by chief executive Bill Kinlay.
Having commanded a 20.7 per cent share of the Irish advertising market as recently as 2015, newspapers’ share will fall to just 6.6 per cent in 2024, the forecasts suggest.
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The woes of the television market will be less severe, with GroupM expecting a 1.3 per cent decline next year to €209.9 million. Traditional – or linear – television ad revenues will fall 3 per cent to €184.7 million next year, while broadcaster video-on-demand and connected TV revenue will surge 12.8 per cent to €25.2 million.
This follows a difficult 2023, which saw total television advertising spending fall more than 6 per cent amid “macroeconomic uncertainty and micro-inflationary pressures”. These conditions have “knocked advertisers’ confidence in what is arguably their most considered media investment”, GroupM said, with the decline in linear television viewing time exacerbating the situation.
Nevertheless, it expects linear television revenue to edge up again after 2024 as a degree of stability returns to viewing levels after the volatility of the post-pandemic years, while there is a “far more positive” outlook for advertising on both broadcasters’ players and international streaming services such as Netflix and Disney Plus, which are expected to enter the Irish advertising market soon.
After growth of 7.1 per cent this year, digital advertising will expand 5.1 per cent to €779.3 million next year, taking a 59 per cent share of the market, according to GroupM. This refers to “pure-play” digital revenues only, meaning it includes retail media, social media and sites such as Google’s YouTube but excludes digital extensions of traditional media.
Retail media – advertising that targets consumers at or near the point of sale within retailer apps and sites – is “one of the fastest growing channels”, it notes, and will reach €43 million by 2028.
Out-of-home advertising will continue its recovery from its pandemic plummet, with revenue increasing 7.5 per cent to €74.4 million next year.
Radio and audio advertising will also see growth next year, with GroupM forecasting a 3.9 per cent increase to €157 million next year after an estimated rise of 2.7 per cent in 2023. It predicts that radio’s revitalised fortunes will continue, with the market reaching €178.3 million in 2028.
Cinema advertising, meanwhile, will grow 3.2 per cent to €7.6 million next year, building on a 9.7 per cent advance in 2023.
“Cinema has enjoyed a boom year thanks to the Barbenheimer summer. Whether studios can maintain this momentum into next year will depend on their ability to uphold the strength of their release slates despite the lengthy union strikes in 2023,” said GroupM, which plans marketing campaigns through agencies including EssenceMediacom, Mindshare and Wavemaker.
Overall, 2023 has proven “a tough year to navigate”, its report concludes.
“Relative to 2022, expansion has markedly slowed this year as volatile pricing and unpredictable business conditions have curtailed the marketing spend of broadcast-led advertisers – those that favour TV, radio and their extensions – that had spent heavily on those media as part of their post-pandemic recovery.”
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