Sunday’s air strike on Beirut’s Dahiya quarter, which killed Hizbullah’s top military commander Haytham Tabtabai, marked the first time Israel has targeted the Lebanese capital since June, and is likely to be the precursor of a much wider military operation.
There is growing talk among Israeli political and military leaders on the need for a limited ground incursion into south Lebanon to thwart what is says are efforts by the Iranian-backed group to reassert its military capabilities, although such a manoeuvre is unlikely before the end of the visit by Pope Leo XIV to Lebanon at the end of this week.
In a statement after the attack, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said: “Under my leadership, Israel will not allow Hizbullah to rebuild its power, and we will not allow it to once again pose a threat to the state of Israel.” He added that he expected the Lebanese government “to fulfil its commitment to disarm Hizbullah”.
Hizbullah launched its first rockets into Israel during the Gaza war a day after the October 7th, 2023, Hamas-led invasion of southern Israel, sparking more than a year of intense cross-border exchanges of fire which ended after Israel imposed a significant military defeat on the powerful Shia militia.
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A year has passed since a ceasefire was reached in the north, but the Israel says the provision requiring the Beirut government to disarm Hizbullah has only been partially implemented. Most of the more than 60,000 Israeli residents who fled their homes along the northern border to escape the rocket fire have now returned and Israel maintains a “zero tolerance” policy, saying it will act aggressively to prevent Hizbullah reasserting a presence in southern Lebanon if the Lebanese army is unable or unwilling to act.
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Lebanon’s health ministry said five people were killed and 28 wounded by the air strike. Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun said Israel’s attack serves as “further proof that Israel ignores repeated calls to stop its aggression”, urging international intervention to prevent more Israeli strikes.
However, Washington, which brokered last year’s ceasefire, backs Israel’s demand for Hizbullah to disarm under the terms of the agreement.
Israel claims it has killed more than 330 Hizbullah operatives since the ceasefire went into effect. It has carried out almost daily attacks, mainly targeting what is says are Hizbullah sites south of the Litani river. Lebanon’s health ministry says more than 270 people have been killed and about 850 wounded by Israeli actions. The UN human rights office says at least 107 of those killed by October 9th were civilians or non-combatants.
Hizbullah has not attacked Israel since the ceasefire began. In December, it fired several rockets that landed on open territory near an Israeli military base and called it a “warning”. Israel estimates that the group still retains tens of thousands of rockets and mortars from its pre-war 150,000-rocket arsenal.
An unnamed Israeli security source told the Saudi-based Al-Hadath outlet that after a few days of warfare, Hizbullah could be significantly weakened for many years.
Foreign intelligence services estimate that Hizbullah has managed to partially restore its supply chain and is receiving weapons from Iran through Iraq and Syria and its rearmament is outstripping Lebanese army’s efforts to disarm it. The Lebanese government has denied claims that Hizbullah is trying to rebuild its military capabilities.
