As Israel waits to see if the United States will join its war against Iran, there has been no let-up in the military campaign, now in its second week.
Control of the skies over Tehran and western Iran has enabled Israeli aircraft to operate with impunity. This includes drones and surveillance aircraft around the clock.
Israel’s next aim is to extend air superiority over southern Iran, an area densely packed with strategic sites, including the concealed enrichment facility of Fordow.
Parts of southeastern Iran are considered among the most heavily protected in the Islamic republic, defended by a dense network of the country’s most advanced domestically produced anti-aircraft systems.
The area also has many missile launchers, which are a top priority for Israel. Iran continues to fire projectiles every day across Israel – some landed in Israel’s second and third cities, Haifa and Beer Sheva, on Friday.
The Israeli military estimates that about a third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers have been destroyed, with another third damaged.
While regime change is not a declared war aim, Israel has stepped up its strikes on symbols of the Islamic republic, particularly following Thursday’s hit on Beer Sheva’s Seroka hospital, which prompted defence minister Israel Katz to declare that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “can no longer be allowed to exist”.
He confirmed on Friday that he had instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to increase attacks to “undermine the regime”.
Israel “must strike all government targets and the mechanisms of oppression, such as the Basij” – a volunteer militia – “and the regime’s power base, like the Revolutionary Guard Corps”, Katz said.
He also said Israel must also “bring about a widespread evacuation of the population from Tehran, in order to undermine the regime”.
Israel’s air strikes are also focused on hitting the Iranians’ ability to swiftly recover after the war. Missile- and weapons-production systems have increasingly been struck and Israel’s justification for hitting the nuclear reactor in Arak, which is not in use, is that it could be reactivated.
According to some military commentators, the extra time granted by Trump’s procrastination appears to be advantageous for Israeli military planners.
Despite the achievements of the Israeli military, the entry of the US would expedite the war’s end. The US is likely to have the capacity to destroy the underground facility in Fordow, and the Israeli administration believes its involvement would endanger the regime and force Iran’s leaders to agree to a nuclear deal in the interests of their own survival.
