With the second round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran due to take place on Saturday, Israel is looking on with a degree of concern.
While welcoming the talks, officials in Jerusalem have privately acknowledged that a potential agreement under the current US administration would be viewed as deeply problematic.
Washington aims to halt Tehran’s sensitive uranium enrichment work – regarded by the US, Israel and European powers as a path to nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is solely for civilian energy production.
At his White House meeting with US president Donald Trump earlier this month, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said the only acceptable deal with Iran would be along the lines of the “Libyan model”, with the Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed. He stressed the need for military action if necessary.
But Israeli sources fear that the US position in the talks with Iran may fall short of the deal reached with Libya in 2003, under which Tripoli agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons.
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Israeli officials say that a deal now could leave the Islamic Republic dangerously close to being able to produce nuclear bombs after the departure of Donald Trump’s administration.
Despite the war in Gaza and the conflict against Hizbullah, Israel’s top priority remains preventing Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb. And time is pressing.
On October 18th, UN Security Council resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and the big powers’ prerogative to restore UN sanctions, expires.
Meanwhile, Israeli decision-makers say they remain confident of the military’s ability to carry out a highly effective attack on Iran, although an Israeli strike would require permission from Washington.
Iran’s air-defence systems were severely degraded by the Israel air force attacks in April and October last year. Successful Israeli air force strikes have been carried out against targets in Yemen, which is farther away than the nuclear facilities in Iran.
The Israel Defense Forces believes that destroying the Iranian nuclear facilities and delivering a knockout blow to its stockpiles of enriched uranium is feasible and the military continues to make intensive operational preparations for a strike on Iran.
Israeli defence officials have always dismissed Teheran’s assertion that it does not plan to build a nuclear bomb and Israel believes that Tehran will not agree to an effective agreement unless it first suffers a very powerful blow.
Washington has beefed up its military forces in the region in recent weeks and sent Israel additional missile defence batteries.
Iran realises that if the negotiations fail then a military option becomes a distinct possibility. – Additional reporting: Reuters
