The Arabs are in a strong position to challenge US president Donald Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza, expel more than two million Palestinians, and settle them in Egypt and Jordan.
The Arabs’ key political leverage would be for Egypt and Jordan to suspend their peace treaties with Israel and for the Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan to suspend normalisation with Israel. These moves would be highly popular. An opinion poll conducted in 2023 and 2024 by the Washington-based Arab Center showed that 89 per cent of people in 16 Arab countries oppose relations with Israel.
Following Saudi Arabia’s 2023 reconciliation with Iran, seen by the US as its regional adversary, the Arabs could boost political and economic ties with Tehran, undermining the US policy of “maximum pressure” meant to deter Iran from making nuclear weapons. This could exert pressure on the US to resume negotiations on limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018.
The Arabs could also speed up and intensify their pivot towards Asia with the aim of diversifying relations and countering waning US hegemony. In January 2024, the Emirates and Egypt joined the Brics bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It is considered a competitor to the Western G7 bloc of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US. Saudi Arabia hesitated but could join along with other Arab countries.
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China has been the main beneficiary of the shift. China is Saudi Arabia’s chief crude oil customer and the kingdom’s largest trading partner. During the past two decades Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia has reached $106 billion (€102 billion), in Kuwait $97 billion and in the Emirates $46 billion, according to Janes IntelTrak data.
The Arabs can also use the leverage of non-co-operation. Jordan and Egypt have said they cannot and will not resettle Gazans on the ground that their expulsion would destabilise these two countries and the region. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Gulf states, Lebanon and Syria would also reject exiled Gazans. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait could replace US financial leverage by providing economic aid to Jordan and Egypt.
Limitations have already been imposed on US military facilities and overflight rights in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the Emirates, Iraq, Syria and Oman. Europe-based Politico reported, “Some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly restricting the US from using military facilities on their soil to launch retaliatory air strikes on Iranian proxies.”
These restrictions include retaliation for attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria and Red Sea shipping. To avoid risks to its position as an air travel and financial hub, the Emirates asked the US to transfer operations to the vast Qatari al-Udeid airbase.
The Arab world also could restrict consumption of US goods, which totalled $65.3 billion in 2023, according to the US census bureau. More than 50 per cent of imports went to the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Morocco, which accounted for 80 per cent of the total.
US oil imports from Arab producers have fallen to eight per cent in recent years but Europe accounted for 18 per cent of crude and 12 per cent of gas imports, providing the Arabs with oil leverage on Washington’s western allies.
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