US Election

Donald Trump’s re-election likely to embolden Israel

The president-elect is expected to support Binyamin Netanyahu’s interests, but relations with other Middle Eastern leaders are less assured

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu clasps hands with Donald Trump in the White House in Washington after the unveiling of the US’s controversial Middle East peace plan in 2020. Photograph: Michael Reynolds/EPA
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu clasps hands with Donald Trump in the White House in Washington after the unveiling of the US’s controversial Middle East peace plan in 2020. Photograph: Michael Reynolds/EPA
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Michael Jansen
Thu Nov 07 2024 - 19:27

Israeli politicians have celebrated Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, while Middle Eastern leaders have formally congratulated him despite reservations over his fresh involvement in this volatile region.

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu described the election result as “a huge victory”, undoubtedly as he expects Mr Trump to back his Gaza/Lebanon war, settlement expansion and rejection of the two-state solution. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas urged Mr Trump to support “the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people” for an independent state. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmael Baghaei said: “Elections are an opportunity to review wrong approaches of the past.”

On the internationally backed plan for ending the Arab-Israel conflict, Mr Trump told Time magazine in April, “There was a time when I thought two states could work. Now I think two states is going to be very, very tough.” On the Gaza war, he has repeatedly told Israel to “finish the job” without saying how. He is likely to accept Israel’s ban on the operations of UN Palestinian relief agency Unrwa, which serves 25 million people in Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and back an Israeli attack Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities.

Mr Trump could try to revive his 2020 Abraham accords by pressuring Saudi Arabia and Gulf states to join the Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan by normalising relations with Israel. However, Riyadh’s support for such an expansion is crucial and Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has conditioned normalisation on the creation of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

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Senior Emirati commentator Abdul Khaleq Abdullah told Washington’s Al Monitor that in recent years, the Gulf states have become self-reliant and forged ties with China, Russia and others in the Global South. “We value our independence; we have our own national interests. Whether it is Trump or any other president, [they have] to fully understand that the Gulf states are no longer clients of Washington.”

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During his first term in office, Mr Trump upended traditional US policy by recognising occupied Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, declaring Israeli settlements legal and defunding Unrwa. He recognised Israel’s annexation of Syria’s Golan and withdrew the US from the agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions.

At that time, Mr Trump was advised by Washington’s then ambassador to Israel David Freidman and son-in-law Jared Kushner who have called for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and annexation of the West Bank. Their return to his inner circle could influence his actions once he is back in the White House.