Main Points
We have a new pope! It is Robert Francis Prevost and he will be known as pope Leo XIV.
A senior cardinal earlier confirmed the election with the term ‘Habemus Papam’ Latin for “we have a pope”.
Crowds in St Peter’s Square started cheering as soon as white smoke emerged confirming the election of the successor to Pope Francis.
Best reads
- Robert Prevost profile: Who is the new pope?
- Breda O’Brien: Why the next pope’s name should be Leo
- In pictures: The election of Pope Leo XIV
- Patsy McGarry in Rome: ‘I dread the day I think that’s about to arrive when I’m going to be older than the pope’
- Conclave explained: A graphical guide to the election of a pope
- The Irish disapora and its role in electing the successor to Pope Francis this week
The first-ever US pope has some thoughts about the American president.
Pope Leo XIV has a history of criticising US president Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance’s policies, according to posts on the X account of Robert Prevost, his name before he ascended to be head of the Catholic Church.
In February, he reposted an article with the following headline: ‘JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others.’
In April, when Trump met with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele to discuss using a prison where alleged human rights abuses took place to jail suspected gang members flown from the United States, Cardinal Prevost reposted a comment that included: “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed?”
Reuters could not immediately verify who operated the account, which made its first post in 2011.
- Reuters
Eamon Martin, Archbishop of Armagh and Primate of All Ireland, said he welcomes the new pope “with great joy”.
“At the end of February I and the other Irish archbishops met him and he came across as a humble and respectful listener, wanting to learn as much as possible about the Church in Ireland,” Archbishop Martin said in a statment.
“He is a calm, affable and approachable person. He is a friend of Ireland and no doubt the Augustinian communities in Ireland will be delighted with the news.”
Professor Brandon Gallaher, a lecturer in Theology at the University of Exeter, said the new pope is “a continuity candidate to institutionalise Francis’ legacy in terms of linking it to the tradition of Catholic social teaching”.
“Leo XIV shares with Francis the desire to put the peripheries in the centre and care for migrants and those who are marginalised.
“He has been relatively quiet on hot button issues though there would seem to be some concern about the promotion of sexual diversity and alternative families departing from Catholic moral teaching and he critiqued the clericalisation of women at the recent Synod on the Synods so it is unlikely he will open the door on women’s ordination.
“He will be a Francis-like pontiff without the intense charisma of the late pope and with a better ability to unite the Catholic factions and greater attention to the canonical details of his decisions and likely greater discipline in terms of public statements.”
Prof Gallaher also said it’s notable that the new pontiff is American.
“The fact he is American – it used to be said that an American Pope was impossible as too much power was not to be put in one country’s hands – is not insignificant.
“At a time when the world is suffering from Trump’s American populism, Leo XIV shows the possibility of another different American vision that supports the marginalised and is critical of rampant capitalism.
“The choice of Pope Leo XIV shows that Pope Francis’ revolution in church life will now be institutionalised.”
- PA
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has also wished the new pope well.
“I hope that he will continue the courageous legacy of Pope Francis in being a true voice for compassion, peace, and justice,” she wrote in a post on X.
President Michael D Higgins has extended his “warmest congratulations to Cardinal Robert Prevost on his election as successor to Pope Francis”.
“This is an immensely significant moment for all those of faith and goodwill around the world who look to the Papacy for spiritual guidance, moral clarity, and global leadership at a time described by his predecessor Pope Francis as needing the vocation of diplomacy.”
President Higgins said Pope Leo XIV “assumes this important role at a time of great challenges for the world”.
“I send Pope Leo my very best wishes as he begins his Pontificate, and I welcome his statement that he is prepared to lead with compassion, wisdom, and an enduring commitment to the values of peace, justice, and human dignity.”
In his statement, President Higgins also noted that Ireland “enjoys a long-standing and deeply rooted connection with the Holy See” which “is founded on shared values of interdependence, and the responsibility that goes with it, as well as historical ties”.
“We in Ireland very much look forward to maintaining and deepening that relationship with Pope Leo, as we continue to share the project of fostering dialogue and understanding between peoples and nations.”
There are plenty of celebrations, and US flags, in St Peter’s Sqaure this evening.
What’s in a name? Here is some context as to why the new pope has chosen Leo as his moniker.
If you’re a papal Leo, you tend to be a reformer at the progressive end of Catholicism.
That the new pope has decided to become Leo XIV will make many Catholics think immediately of the last Leo – Leo XIII – and his 1891 encyclical or teaching document, Rerum Novarum, which outlined workers’ rights to a fair wage, safe working conditions and the rights of workers to belong to trade unions.
If Pope Francis was the People’s Pope, then Leo XIV is all set to be the Workers’ Pope.
The Catholic Church in the US is deeply divided. On the one hand, there are those who supported Donald Trump in the last election and adhere to JD Vance’s view that there is an order of love which puts family first, then your neighbourhood, and far after that, the rest of humanity.
Then there are those who agree with Pope Francis that this is a misreading of Christianity – Leo XIV is likely to agree with his predecessor.
- The Guardian
Trócaire CEO Caoimhe de Barra said she hopes that Pope Leo “continues the extraordinary work of Pope Francis in calling out the injustices perpetrated against the most vulnerable and in highlighting the need for the protection of the environment for the common good of all”.
“This work is more important now more than ever with conflict affecting so many regions and climate change driving millions of people further into poverty.
“We pray that Pope Leo has the same courage and determination to tackle injustice as Pope Francis and that he brings fresh energy and vision to achieving positive global change.”
Diarmuid Martin, former Catholic Archbishop of Dublin, said it’s “very clear that [Leo XIV] wants to follow in the line of Pope Francis, and I think that’s probably why he was elected”.
Speaking on Drivetime, Mr Martin said there are “many divisions in the Church” but the fact the new pontiff was elected so quickly is “a sign that he enjoys a great strength of unity among the cardinals”.
“People will unite around him, please God.”
Mr Martin said the fact the pope has chosen Leo as his name “is a clear indication that he is not a person who endorses right-wing politics”.
He said the name indicates the new pontiff wants to “place himself in a long tradition of the Church which is committed to the poor, but also to work and workers”.
“I think this is one of the areas where he clearly will be very different to much of the American political leadership,” Mr Martin said.
Cardinal Prevost is a member of the Order of St Augustine.
Fr Tony Egan, head of the Augustinian Order in Ireland, said he believes Leo XIV will follow in the footsteps of the late Pope Francis in terms of reaching out to “the poor, the marginalised, migrants”.
“He will be a pope for everyone, Catholics, non-Catholics, Christians, just the general, broad humanity. He has a good heart,” Fr Egan told Drivetime on RTÉ Radio 1.
Recalling a previous meeting with Cardinal Prevost, Fr Egan said the new pontiff is “a very quiet, humble man”.
“There’s no airs and graces, there never was any airs and graces about him.”
The new pope is an alumnus of Villanova University in Pennsylvania. It is the only Augustinian Catholic university in the US and its motto is “Ignite change”.... or at least that is what we have gleaned from its website. Until this afternoon its most famous alumni were probably Jill Biden and Bradley Cooper. They are both in the ha’penny place on that score now. It is also, we are reliably informed by a colleague who knows such things, where Sonia O’Sullivan went to school.
More reaction from world leaders to the elevation of Cardinal Robert Prevost to the papacy is coming in including a rhyming couplet from Viktor Orban.
FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON: “A historic moment for the Catholic Church and its millions of faithful. To Pope Leo XIV, to all Catholics in France and around the world, I send a fraternal message. On this May 8th, may this new pontificate bring peace and hope.”
ARGENTINE PRESIDENT JAVIER MILEI: The forces of Heaven have clearly given their verdict. No more words."
CHANCELLOR OF AUSTRIA CHRISTIAN STOCKER: “Habemus Papam! I congratulate Pope Leo XIV on taking this office that carries such great responsibilities and wish him much strength and wisdom for his pontificate.”
FRIEDRICH MERZ, GERMAN CHANCELLOR: I warmly congratulate you on your election as the head of the Catholic Church. Through your office, you offer hope and guidance to millions of believers worldwide in these times of great challenges. For many people, you are a beacon of justice and reconciliation. In Germany, people look to your pontificate with confidence and positive expectation. I wish you much strength, good health, and God’s blessing for the tasks that lie ahead of you.”
SPANISH PRIME MINISTER PEDRO SANCHEZ: Congratulations to the whole Catholic Church on the election of the new Pope Leo XIV as @Pontifex_en. May his pontificate contribute to strengthening dialogue and the defense of human rights in a world in need of hope and unity.”
VIKTOR ORBAN, PRIME MINISTER OF HUNGARY: We have a Pope! there is hope!”
The old adage which has it that “he who enters the conclave a pope exits a cardinal” has held true again. While Cardinal Prevost wasn’t exactly a complete outsider and he had been mentioned in some dispatches, the bookies weren’t buying it and as recently as yesterday morning you could have got odds of 66/1 on him becoming the next pope.
President Donald Trump has congratulated the first American Pope, but he must be doing so through gritted teeth, writes Ronan McGreevy.
Pope Leo XIV had only 14,000 followers before being elected and did not post on X very often, but his posts and reposts will be scrutinized intently.
In February he posted an article from a Jesuit magazine in the United States which was highly critical of the Trump Administration’s policy on immigration.
The article by Jesuit priest Fr Sam Sawyer took exception to an interview Vice-President JD Vance, a Catholic convert, gave in which he spoke about the ordo amoris (the order of love) suggesting that Christians had a duty to friends and family first.
“You love your family, and then you love your neighbor, and then you love your community, and then you love your fellow citizens in your own country. And then after that, you can focus and prioritize the rest of the world. The “far left” has inverted that,” Vance later explained on X.
Fr Sawyer cited the words of Pope Francis that the true “ordo amoris must be informed by meditation on the parable of the Good Samaritan and build a fraternity open to all, without exception.”
Fr Sawyer added: Certainly Mr. Vance’s take on the ordo amoris needs correction and theological context, but I will admit that I am more than a little surprised by the pope’s choice to intervene in near real-time. On reflection, I do not think he has done so just to address the vice president. Instead, I think his intervention reflects both a concern and a hope for how U.S. Catholics allow the Gospel to purify us and call us to conversion about our response to immigrants.”
The Archbishop of Dublin Dermot Farrell has said the election of Cardinal Robert Prevost as the new pope is “a wonderful choice on the part of the Cardinals”.
He welcome the fact that they “came to that decision so quickly” and said Leo XIV would bring “a wealth of experience to the position”.
The Archbishop said he met the new pope “a couple of months ago at a very long meeting which he chaired. He’s very gentle, he’s very soft spoken, a very discreet man I think he he will be following somewhat in the footsteps of Pope Francis. He certainly mentioned the whole notion of the missionary church when he spoke from the balcony so that was very much in the mindset of Pope Francis.
“Cardinal Provost now Pope Leo the 14th was a missionary Bishop in Peru where he served for many many years well that’s certainly I think going to be part of his philosophy.”
He said he would be in the mould of “the missionary church. There’s a space for everybody in that church so I think he will be welcoming people with open arms into the church, even people who have gone away from the church.”
Northern Ireland’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill has described the appointment of Pope Leo XIV as a “day of profound significance” urging the American Pope to stand with Gaza.
In a post on X, she wrote: “This is a day of profound significance for Catholics in Ireland and worldwide, as Pope Leo XIV assumes his role of spiritual leader.
“I hope he will use his influence to stand up for the marginalised and oppressed, champion peace, and lead with courage and compassion – just as his predecessor, Pope Francis, did.
“As the genocide in Gaza continues and a devastating famine looms, I encourage the Pope to stand unwaveringly for the rights of the Palestinian people to life, dignity, and freedom, and to urgently use his influence to help bring an end to this barbaric genocide.”
The new pope who will be known from here on as Leo XIV is a keen tennis player and by at least one account fond of a sing song. He is also considered a young pope and it would have to be expected that he will be the head of the Roman Catholic Church for many years to come.
The first American pope, Leo XIV has left the balcony overlooking St Peter’s Square.
The US President Donald Trump has said he will “look forward to meeting” Pope Leo XIV in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“Congratulations to Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who was just named Pope. It is such an honor to realise that he is the first American Pope,” Mr Trump said.
“What excitement, and what a Great Honour for our Country. I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV. It will be a very meaningful moment!”
The Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Harris has also extended his congratulations to the new pope.
“I warmly congratulate Cardinal Prevost on his election as the 267th Pope and next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
“This is a momentous occasion for Pope Leo XIV personally, and for the millions of Catholics across the world who now look to him for guidance, leadership, and inspiration. I send him my very best wishes as he prepares to undertake this responsibility.
“The election of a new Pope is always a significant moment, not only for the Catholic Church but for the broader global community. As Tánaiste and on behalf of the Government of Ireland, I extend our heartfelt congratulations and wish him every success for his Pontificate.
“I have no doubt he will continue to build on the extraordinary legacy left behind by his predecessor, the late Pope Francis, who taught us all the importance of kindness and humanity.
“Ireland shares a long and enduring relationship with the Holy See, rooted in deep historical, cultural, and spiritual ties.
“We in Ireland value this connection, and we look forward to continuing and strengthening our close engagement with the Holy See under Pope Leo XIV’s leadership.
“In a time marked by complex global challenges—from poverty and conflict to climate change—the role of moral and spiritual leadership is more vital than ever.
“We hope to work together with His Holiness in the pursuit of peace, justice, and solidarity amongst people.”
The Taoiseach Micheál Martin has welcomed the election of Cardinal Robert Prevost as the new pope.
“On behalf of the Government and the people of Ireland, I offer warm congratulations to Cardinal Robert Prevost on his election as Pope Leo XIV.
“The scenes of great joy and celebrations in St. Peter’s Square are a reflection of the hopes and goodwill felt by people of the Catholic faith from all around the world towards the new Pope.
“I hope that this groundswell of best wishes towards Pope Leo XIV will give him strength and support as he takes on the immense responsibility of his pontificate. I know that he has the best wishes of all Irish people, of all traditions.
“I also send my congratulations to the people of the United States, a country with which Ireland enjoys such a deep and strong relationship. To have a Pope from their country is a source of great pride and an honour for their nation.
“I wish Pope Leo XIV every strength, good health, and the required spiritual guidance as he begins his mission of leading the Catholic Church at a time of challenge, building on the pastoral direction and achievements of Pope Francis.
“I look forward to working with Pope Leo XIV as an important and influential partner in addressing the many and interlinked challenges facing our world, as we work for peace, justice and sustainable development for all.”The Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Harris has also extended his congratulations to the new pope.
“I warmly congratulate Cardinal Prevost on his election as the 267th Pope and next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
“This is a momentous occasion for Pope Leo XIV personally, and for the millions of Catholics across the world who now look to him for guidance, leadership, and inspiration. I send him my very best wishes as he prepares to undertake this responsibility.
“The election of a new Pope is always a significant moment, not only for the Catholic Church but for the broader global community. As Tánaiste and on behalf of the Government of Ireland, I extend our heartfelt congratulations and wish him every success for his Pontificate.
“I have no doubt he will continue to build on the extraordinary legacy left behind by his predecessor, the late Pope Francis, who taught us all the importance of kindness and humanity.
“Ireland shares a long and enduring relationship with the Holy See, rooted in deep historical, cultural, and spiritual ties.
“We in Ireland value this connection, and we look forward to continuing and strengthening our close engagement with the Holy See under Pope Leo XIV’s leadership.
“In a time marked by complex global challenges—from poverty and conflict to climate change—the role of moral and spiritual leadership is more vital than ever.
“We hope to work together with His Holiness in the pursuit of peace, justice, and solidarity amongst people.”
Robert Francis Prevost has been elected the first American pope in history and will be known as Pope Leo XIV.
There has never been a pope from the United States, and conventional wisdom suggested that any American would be a long shot.
Yet one American who some Vatican watchers said could scrape together enough votes was Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost (69) a Chicago-born polyglot who is viewed as a churchman who transcends borders.
He served for two decades in Peru, where he became a bishop and a naturalised citizen. He then rose to lead his international religious order. Until the death of Francis, he held one of the most influential Vatican posts, running the office that selects and manages bishops globally.
The cardinal, who is a member of the Order of St Augustine, resembles Francis in his commitment to the poor and migrants. Often described as reserved and discreet, Prevost will depart stylistically from Francis. His supporters say he will most likely continue the consultative process started by Francis to invite laypeople to meet with bishops.
It is unclear whether he will be as open to LGBTQ+ Catholics as Francis was. Although he has not said much recently, in a 2012 address to bishops, he lamented that Western news media and popular culture fostered “sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel”. He cited the “homosexual lifestyle” and “alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children.”
Rev Michele Falcone (46), a priest in the Order of St. Augustine previously led by Prevost, described his mentor and friend as the “dignified middle of the road” to the New York Times earlier this week.
“He does not have excesses,” Fr Falcone said of Prevost. “Blessing babies, yes. Taking them in his arms, no.”
“I know that Bob believes that everybody has a right and a duty to express themselves in the church,” said Rev Mark R Francis, a former classmate of Prevost who runs the American arm of the Clerics of St Viator, a religious order.
While praised in Peru for supporting Venezuelan immigrants and visiting far-flung communities, the cardinal has drawn criticism over his dealings with priests accused of sexual abuse.
One woman in Chiclayo, who said she and two other women were sexually abused by two priests as girls long before Prevost was bishop, accused him of mishandling an investigation and of not stopping one of the priests from celebrating Mass.
The diocese of Chiclayo said Prevost opened an investigation that the Vatican closed. After a new bishop arrived, the investigation was reopened. Supporters of Prevost say he is the target of a smear campaign by members of a Peruvian-based Catholic movement that Francis disbanded. –New York Times and Agencies
“Peace be with all you,” were Pope Leo XIV’s first words spoken from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. He has addressed the crowd first in Italian and then in Spanish. He has emphasised the need to continue the work of Pope France who embraced the poor and said the catholic church must be a missionary church.
The new pope is speaking now and while many, many thousands of words will be written about him in the days ahead what we can say now is he is a Chicago native and was until moments ago the head of the church’s Dicastery for Bishops.
He’s a dual citizen, holding nationality in both the US and Peru, where he served for many years.
He is seen as a centrist but on some key social issues he’s viewed as progressive. He has long embraced marginalised groups, a lot like Francis, who championed migrants and the poor.
He has, however, opposed ordaining women as deacons so in some respects is seen as conservative.
Pope Leo is on the balcony now waving at the tens of thousands of people who stand below him. He looks, as you might imagine, very nervous and almost overwhelmed by the occasion. Life changing moments don’t come much bigger than this.
The new pope is 69 and an Augustinian. He was only appointed a cardinal in December 2024.
The new pope has chosen the name Leo. It makes him Pope Leo XIV.
And there you have it, the new pope is Robert F. Prevost. The very first American pope. We are just waiting on confirmation of his papal name.
Chants of Viva Papa are echoing throughout a St Peter’s Square bathed in sunshine as the faithful - and no doubt some who are just curious and delighted to be part of a moment of history - wait for the pope to emerge.
Here we go. The doors of the balcony have opened.
The first thing the new pope will do is go into the pleasingly named Room of Tears to be dressed in the white vestments he will wear from here on out.
When Francis was elected pope there was a 66 minute gap between the appearance of the white smoke and the appearance the man in the white cassock so based on that timeline we should know who the new man at the head of the catholic church is by 6.07pm. Mind you there are more cardinals now than there were then so the bending of the knees might take a bit longer than it did last time out.
Many of the cardinals who did not take part in the conclave because they were over the age of 80 have gathered close to the top of St Peter’s Square and like the rest of the faithful - indeed the rest of the world - they are waiting to find out who the next pope will be.
The white smoke appeared shortly after 6pm Italian time and the bells of St Peter’s started tolling. The sound of the bells might have been just a bit confusing for some of the faithful as they came just seconds after the bells of the Angelus stopped ringing. The sound of the bells had a cascading effect across Rome and once the other churches heard the bells of St Peters they too started pealing.
The balcony where the new pope will make his first appearance is ready and waiting.
The Swiss Guard in all their finery are marching into St Peter’s Square now to a soundtrack provided by a brass band and taking their position ahead of what is sure to be a moment for the history books. Those lads did very well to get ready so quickly so they did! We should get this band to march in next year’s St Patrick’s Day parade, they’re very jolly so they are.
The crowds in St Peter’s Square are still going wild as church bells all over the eternal city ring out. As we said earlier, it is a tradition amongst the Romans to make their way post haste to the Vatican as soon as the white smoke appears so there is likely to be tens of thousands of people outside the basilica by 6pm when the world is likely to get its first glimpse of the new pope.
So, what is happening now is the new pope is being fitted with his new papal vestments.
The pope’s tailors keep large, medium and small sizes ready - and then he sits on a throne in the Sistine Chapel to receive the other cardinals who file up to pay homage and swear obedience.
The senior cardinal deacon then steps out on to the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square and announces in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. Habemus Papam” (I announce to you a great joy. We have a pope) and reveals the cardinal’s name and the name he has chosen.
The new pope then appears on the balcony to deliver his first public pontifical greeting and bless the crowds in St Peter’s Square.
As you might imagine, St Peter’s Square is bedlam right now. The white smoke started billowing out in the blue skies over Rome shortly after 5pm. What that tells us is that the new pope was elected after just four ballots. But who is it going to be?
As the recent film proved, conclaves are cinematic affairs but of all the moments that have been captured on film in recent days, there is nothing to come close to this moment for sheer drama and beauty. If you’ve not seen it, it’s worth a look.
We have white smoke. We have a pope. We don’t know who it is yet and we won’t know for a while yet but very, very soon the immortal words Habemas Papam will ring out over the Eternal City.
All we can do is wait until the new pope appears on the balcony overlooking St Peter’s Square where tens of thousands of people have gathered to greet the new leader of a church that numbers 1.4 billion members.
More and more people are pouring into St Peter’s Square in advance of the conclusion of the second day of the conclave – official estimates right now put the crowd size at around 15,000. Seasoned Pope watchers are telling us that what tends to happen is that there will be tens of thousands in the square for the rest of the afternoon but if white smoke appears people all over Rome will literally drop whatever they are doing and run to the square to be there for a moment of history.
And by way of an update on what is happening in the Sistine Chapel – as far as anyone not there can tell – the fourth ballot should be beginning in around 15 minutes. If there is to be a pope this afternoon we would expect to see white smoke over the Vatican by around 5:15pm. If there is nothing by 5:30pm it means a fifth ballot is under way.
Incidentally, there have been people very close to this live story (well, one and they might well share a name with the person the cardinals are electing) wondering why it takes so long to cast ballots and count the votes – after all there are only 133 pieces of paper to count.
An Irish tallyman would have it done and dusted in less than a minute.
But here’s the thing.
The cardinal electors vote one by one and have to walk – in a fairly solemn fashion we would imagine – from their seat to the silver urn at the top of the Sistine Chapel where the papers are cast and then back to their seats.
If every cardinal takes just 45 seconds to cast their vote, it will take more than one hour and 40 minutes for the voting to be concluded and if we allow 10 or 15 minutes to count- and recount – the votes we are at the two hour mark.
And speaking of Joseph (a very dodgy link there, we’ll be the first to admit) and in some non-Pope related news, Joe Duffy has just announced he is leaving RTÉ after 27 years presenting Liveline.
One of the first acts of any new pope will be to choose a name.
Pope Francis – a Jesuit you may recall – picked Francis – associating himself with Francis Xavier – the founder of the Jesuits – and Francis of Assisi, the Italian saint who’s life’s work focused on peace, poverty and simplicity.
John has been the most popular name, with Pope John the 23rd the most recent of these. Others such as Gregory and Benedict have been chosen multiple times too.
Only two have double-barrelled their chosen names – John Paul I and John Paul II.
There is a name that has never been chosen and is unlikely ever to be picked – Peter.
St Peter was the Church’s first Pope, and all those after him are seen as chosen successors. Another unlikely name would be Joseph – the name of Jesus’s earthly father.
Many of those who had gathered in St Peter’s Square left as soon as the black smoke appeared shortly before 11am knowing that it would be several hours before there was any further movement in the skies about the Sistine Chapel.
The carefully planned lunch for the cardinal-electors will be wrapping up soon after which they will be ferried back to the Sistine Chapel where a fresh round of ballots is set to begin – at 3:30pm Irish time.
If that sees one of the 133 finish with a two-thirds majority, then we will see white smoke – probably at around 5pm.
If we’ve seen nothing by that point it most likely will mean that the final ballot of the day is under way. If that yields a pope we might see the white smoke by around 6:30pm but if the conclave remains deadlocked, it will most likely be around 8pm before the plumes of black smoke pour out of the most famous little chimney in the world.
Cardinal Battista Re, the dean of the college of cardinals who led the pre-conclave Mass and the funeral of Pope Francis, has said he hoped a new pope would be elected later today.
Speaking to reporters in Pompeii, the 91-year-old who is excluded from the conclave because he is over 80 said: “I hope we’ll see white smoke when I get back to Rome this evening.”
He said a priority for the next pontiff would be to “strengthen faith in God” in a world that seemed to have “forgotten about God a bit”. “We need an awakening,” he added.
If a new pope is elected today it will be the quickest papal election in a century, beating the conclave of 2005, when Joseph Ratzinger claimed the title in less than 36 hours.
The first black smoke of the day came shortly before 11am as tens of thousands looked to the heavens from St Peter’s Square.
It is, Patsy McGarry tells us, a warm and cloudy day in Rome with thunderstorms forecast. Would the timing be perfect if lightning came just as the Habemus Papam announcement was made.
“Being in St Peter’s Square today is like being back in the moving statues Ireland of 1985,” says Patsy. “Everyone staring at a stationary object, expecting movement.”
He also tells us that the queue for the women’s toilets is stretching back over 500m while there isn’t a sinner at the men’s block.
Incidentally, the reason we said two or three ballots down is that we have been told that the cardinals can hold no more than two ballots in the morning sessions but they can also hold just one if they are so inclined and because of the nature of the vote, no one in the outside world knows what is actually happening in the Sistine Chapel.
We do know some things however. If the cardinal-electors start voting again at 3.30pm, the earliest we can expect to see white smoke will be around 5pm. If they have two ballots, then it is likely to be after 6pm before the day’s voting concludes although based on last night’s endeavours, it may be closer to 8pm before the day is done.
We’ll be standing by anyway.
Right, that is either two or three ballots done and dusted and that means the 133 cardinal electors will return to their lodgings in Santa Marta for lunch before heading back to the Sistine Chapel for the next round, starting at 3.30pm Irish time.
BLACK SMOKE. No Pope. Time for lunch.
Based on the timelines that we have been working off, it would seem likely that a second ballot has happened without a pope being elected. We can say that because if someone had achieved the required two thirds of the votes in the first ballot, the white smoke would have appeared by now. Certainly, that is what the Vatican News network thinks and they have taken a break from chimney watching to play some suitably soothing music.
For what it’s worth, the bookies have updated their odds on who will be the next pope.
This is what Boyle Sports are currently saying.
- 5/8 Pietro Parolin
- 7/2 Luis Antonio Tagle
- 4/1 Pierrebattista Pizzaballa
- 8/1 Matteo Zuppi
- 9/1 Peter Turkson
- 11/1 Peter Erdo
- 20/1 Mario Grech
- 25/1 Kevin Farrell
- 25/1 Robert Sarah
- 28/1 Jean Marc Aveline
- 28/1 Jose Tolentino
With a view to tempering your expectations of white smoke this morning, it is worth noting that it took five ballots over two days to elect Francis in 2013. The white smoke appeared at the end of the second day.
Pope Benedict XVI was elected in 2005 following four ballots.
Back in 1978, it took eight ballots to elect John Paul II while his predecessor Pope John Paul I was elected after four ballots weeks earlier.
There were – fittingly – six ballots for Pope Paul VI while 11 ballots over four days were required before John XXIII became pope in 1958.
The moment the black smoke appeared last night, allowing the 133 cardinals go back to their lodgings for dinner.
It is worth noting that while there may be four ballots today we will most likely not see the smoke after each one of them.
There are two votes this morning with the results expected at around 9.30am/10am Irish time and then again at around 12.30pm. There is a long break then and we would expect more results at around 5pm and 7pm.
Italian media are reporting that what we see will depend on the results of the votes inside the Sistine Chapel.
If the cardinals do elect a new pope, we should know straight away, with white smoke.
But if they don’t, we will only see black smoke at the end of each voting session – morning or afternoon – and not after every vote.
That means it will be non-stop chimney watching all day.
Might be a time for a recap on how the elections are run, right?
The 133 cardinal-electors are housed in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, a Vatican guesthouse where phones and outside communication are strictly prohibited.
Voting takes place inside the Sistine Chapel, under the solemn weight of tradition and secrecy, following a sworn oath.
Wednesday saw a single round of voting. Today there can be up to four ballots: two in the morning, two in the afternoon.
A candidate must obtain a two-thirds majority to be elected. If after 33 ballots, no one reaches this threshold, the cardinals may proceed to a runoff between the two leading candidates, though even in this final phase, a two-thirds majority is still required.
Until we see the white smoke and hear the words Habemus Papam (“we have a pope”) there will be speculation about who the next pope will be.
As you might imagine, the gossip machine was fully cranked up last night, and entirely and completely unconfirmed reports from the walls of the Sistine Chapel suggest that Pietro Paralin from Italy (the outgoing secretary of state), the Filipino cardinal Luis Tagle and the Hungarian Péter Erdő are the ones to watch.
That means – and again we must stress this is gossip rather than hard fact – it is a race between a moderate (Paralin), a progressive (Tagle) and a traditionalist (Erdő).
And yes, it IS starting to read like the plot of Robert Harris’s Conclave.
And speaking of our man in Rome, Patsy McGarry was out and about in St Peter’s `Square yesterday talking to the faithful. One expressed concern that they are likely to be older than the next pope. “That won’t be happening to this Pope,” I thought to myself smugly. “At least not this time.”
Then I read about Mykola Bychok. He is a Ukrainian-born bishop based in Melbourne who Pope Francis made a cardinal last October.
He’s only 45 and while it is a very long shot, he could be the next pope.
The Pauline Chapel where the cardinal-electors are attending the pre-vote Mass was restored in 2009, to the tune of €9 million, reports our man in Rome Patsy McGarry.
“It was funded by wealthy – at the time – Irish businessmen Sean Fitzpatrick, Johnny Ronan, Denis O’Brien, Michael Fingleton, Sean Mulryan, Derek Quinlan and some well-off Irish-Americans. They are remembered on a plaque in the Pauline Chapel, which I saw on a 2013 pre-conclave tour of relevant buildings organised for media by the Vatican Press Office.”
While the cardinal-electors might have had an early start, the Pope watchers in Rome have been slower to make their way to St Peter’s Square. Just looking at live pics of the Vatican right now and there is hardly anyone there. It will be a different story in a couple of hours.
According to the Vatican’s news agency there were as many as 40,000 people staring up at the chimney in the Sistine Chapel when the black smoke appeared at 8pm last night. And as today continues and the tension mounts, interest is likely to be off the scale.
The 133 cardinal-electors who will choose the next pope had an early start today and were up and about before 7am (Irish time). They headed to the Pauline Chapel adjacent to the Sistine Chapel for morning Mass and after that there was a period of reflection before the second round of voting.
There is time allowed for two ballots this morning with the schedule suggesting they will break for lunch before midday.
They will eat in the Casa Santa Marta and – presuming we have had no white smoke by then – will return to the Sistine Chapel shortly before 4pm with the two more ballots scheduled.
If there is to be a pope this morning, the white smoke is likely to appear at around 9.30am Irish time with the black smoke expected a little bit after that.
And if there is to be a pope in the evening, the white smoke will most likely come before 7pm.
