It is far from an unreasonable view that Donald Trump’s well-flagged sanctions against the International Criminal Court are an attempt to bring the institution to its knees if not to shut it down altogether. The US president himself has indicated as much.
Announcing economic and travel sanctions on individuals and their families who work for the court or assist in its global mission, Trump described the court – once hailed by the United States as the zenith of the international rules-based order – as “illegitimate”.
The sanctions are Trump’s response to the court’s decision last November to issue arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes in the conduct of the Gaza war.
The ICC also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, a Hamas military commander behind the October 7th horror in Israel, since killed.
A White House memo accompanying the executive order authorising the sanctions was scathing.
It accused the ICC of adopting a position of “shameful moral equivalence” between Hamas and Israel by issuing the warrants simultaneously.
“This malign conduct in turn threatens to infringe upon the sovereignty of the United States and underlines the critical national security and foreign policy work of the US government and our allies, including Israel,” it said.
And yet, although the sanctions are operationally very painful, they are not as devastating as they could have been.
They appear to be designed more as a warning shot across the court’s bows than to shut it down altogether.
There had been worst-case fears that the anticipated sanctions might by targeted at the court as an institution – rather than at individuals, such as the prosecutor or its judges.
Targeting the institution could, for example, freeze the court’s banking or payments systems, making it impossible to pay staff or suppliers.
There were also fears that they might hit its IT systems, especially given that the court recently formed a working partnership with Microsoft to update its networks – and that all of its huge quantities of forensic evidence are now stored in the cloud.
Given that last December the court’s president, Judge Tomoko Akame, warned that new sanctions could “jeopardise the court’s very existence”, precautions had already been taken.
Some staff have been paid three months in advance and many have closed US bank accounts. An in-house review of suppliers has started in an effort to reduce exposure, with the possibility of rerouting some goods and services.
A supportive group of nine countries – known as the Hague Group – has been formed and its diplomats briefed.
Such supporters within the international community face one existential question: will they allow an independent ICC to be brought to its knees?
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