A year of paralysis at the heart of French politics has probably become one of the most preferable outcomes of Sunday’s election, compared with the alternative where the far right takes control of the levers of government.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally is widely expected to become the biggest party in France when the country votes in the second round of crucial parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Based on rough projections from the first round of voting, which teed up run-offs in most constituencies to decide who wins the seat, the National Rally could secure a majority, but will more likely fall short of it. The New Popular Front, a temporary coalition of several left-wing parties, is set to be the second-biggest group, with French president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp coming third.
Whatever the result, another parliamentary election cannot be called for 12 months, leaving France bound by the instability that will come after July 7th. So what would the possible outcomes mean for France, and by extension Europe?
If the National Rally and its allies win the 289 seats needed for a majority in the National Assembly, it would likely lead to a period of serious instability, as the government and presidency tussle for control of the country.
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old protege of Le Pen, would become prime minister. The anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic party has questioned France’s funding of the EU budget, support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, and the country’s role in the Nato military alliance. Most worryingly for France’s population of immigrants is their idea for “national preference”, to strip back the rights of foreign nationals to welfare benefits such as social housing. There is a tradition of the president having responsibility for foreign policy, though to what extent that would be respected by a National Rally government is uncertain.
[ The demise of Macron as a political force will be felt across EuropeOpens in new window ]
The most likely result is the far right comes close to a majority but falls short, creating a hung parliament. Jean-Philippe Derosier, a professor of law in Lille University who specialises in the constitution, says this in itself would not be exceptional in France. Macron’s outgoing government did not command a full majority, which led to trouble passing legislation, he says.
A hung parliament dominated by the far right would deadlock French politics. Le Pen’s party might not have the numbers to implement much of their own agenda, but would be a big enough force to block anything else being done.
This week has been dominated by a scramble to try to keep the far right from power. The left-wing Popular Front and Macron’s coalition withdrew from large numbers of run-off races in constituencies where they finished third in the first round, to give the other candidate a better chance of beating the far right in the second vote on Sunday.
Some have suggested that effort could continue after the votes are counted, with parties coming together to form a grand coalition of pretty much everyone except the National Rally. However, a hypothetical coalition stretching from France Unbowed, the radical left-wing party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, all the way across the spectrum to the Republicans on the right, would find it impossible to agree on anything.
One nuclear option would be for Macron to nominate a technocratic government of officials, like Italy has done in the past. The ability of that administration to govern would be severely constrained, under constant threat of collapse from a vote of no confidence. It would also be a gift to Le Pen, neatly fitting her narrative that only the National Rally can take France back from the out-of-touch elites.
Interestingly, and somewhat overlooked, was a rare bloody nose the other EU leaders gave France and Germany during a summit in Brussels last week
Unless he decides to step down, Macron, who called the snap election, remains president until 2027. That means he will continue to sit around the table of national leaders during EU summits, but likely with his ability to steer European policy badly damaged.
Interestingly, and somewhat overlooked, was a rare bloody nose the other EU leaders gave France and Germany during a summit in Brussels last week. The two big countries had proposed a series of changes to a strategic plan leaders were due to sign off on to commit to things such as making the bloc more competitive economically.
The Franco-German effort to rewrite the plan at the last minute drew near unanimous opposition from the rest of the room. Other leaders spoke one by one to shoot down the vast majority of the amendments, according to sources with knowledge of the discussion. The two founding member states have always been the engine of the union, but now both face pressure from a surging far-right opposition at home. While the issue being debated last week was not consequential, their retreat in the face of pushback might foreshadow a decline in clout the pair can command together within the EU.
If Macron has to limp on leading a France that has an ungovernable parliament, or one controlled by the far right, it is hard to see how the president’s influence on the international and European stage will not slip away dramatically, and quickly.