There is growing pressure on Hungary in advance of a crunch European Union meeting at which leaders will try to overcome prime minister Viktor Orbán’s veto and release a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine.
Mr Orbán blocked the agreement of the financial lifeline in December in a blow to Ukraine, already facing the prospect of reduced military support from the US nearly two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion.
In advance of a planned gathering of EU leaders on Thursday, there is speculation about whether the EU should move to invoke article 7 of the EU treaties. This step, which allows for the suspension of an EU state’s voting rights, was called for by the European Parliament in a vote earlier this month but is considered the “nuclear option”.
Previously, Hungary was protected from the use of the article by ally Poland, as it requires the agreement of 26 of the 27 member states.
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However, Hungary has been politically isolated by the recent election in Poland, which brought to power a new pro-EU government and ended the rule of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which had also been under pressure from the EU over backsliding on the rule of law.
In the past, “there was never enough votes” to use Article 7, European Commission vice-president Vera Jourova told reporters on Monday.
“It’s fully in the hands of the leaders of the member states,” she said. “We shall see whether the leaders will have enough patience to negotiate with Victor Orbán, or whether they will undertake this new way of using article 7.”
Over the weekend the Financial Times reported that a document had been drawn up within the European Council that assessed how vulnerable Hungary’s economy would be if it lost EU support.
A senior EU official said the document was a “background note” describing the “current status of the Hungarian economy” and that it did not “outline any plan relating to Hungary”.
In response to the report, the Hungarian government said it would not give in to “blackmail”.
[ Ukraine hails ‘productive’ talks with Hungary and continues graft crackdownOpens in new window ]
“The document, drafted by Brussels bureaucrats, only confirms what the Hungarian government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is used for political blackmailing,” Hungary’s European affairs minister János Bóka wrote on social media.
Adding to the discontent with Hungary is that Budapest has repeatedly delayed ratifying Sweden’s accession to join the Nato military alliance, becoming the last holdout country after Turkey approved the membership last week.
“Hungary said it wouldn’t be the last country. Now we are here, we are waiting for Hungary’s ratification,” Finnish European affairs minister Anders Adlercreutz told reporters, calling on all Nato members to recognise their “responsibility”.
If Hungary again blocks Ukraine’s funding on Thursday, the remaining EU countries may decide to go ahead regardless as a group of 26.
Luxembourg’s deputy prime minister Xavier Bettel said that it was possible for the EU to be “creative”, but that a rejection of aid would be a bitter blow to an already struggling country. “I hope Hungarians will understand, it’s to choose on what side of history they want to be,” he said.
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