India’s air strikes on alleged Islamist terrorist hideouts in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir on Wednesday risk widening the conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours over the disputed Himalayan region.
The hostile relationship has its roots in independence 78 years ago, when Britain’s former colony was divided between Muslim-majority Pakistan and India, which has a Hindu majority.
The relationship has been characterised by wars, periodic conflicts and cross-border terrorism, rooted primarily in the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, which remains divided between them, but is claimed in its entirety by both.
Senior security officials in New Delhi said Pakistani military retaliation was certain following the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) strikes. They were carried out as retribution for terrorists shooting dead 26 tourists last month in Indian-administered Kashmir.
India accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (Isid) of backing the killings as part of its strategy of “sponsoring” terrorism in Kashmir since 1989, to disrupt it and seize it completely for itself. But it produced no formal evidence of Isid’s involvement. Pakistan denied any connection to the killings and demanded an independent investigation into them, which India rejected.
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, emboldened by widespread political and countrywide demands for reprisals – not only for the tourist murders, but many other terrorist attacks across Kashmir – tasked India’s military to effect “unimaginable punishment” upon Pakistan.
This came on Wednesday, and India’s armed forces are now on high alert for a Pakistani riposte, albeit unsure of its form and scale.
A cross-section of security officials in Delhi said Pakistan would imminently strive to inflict severe military damage on India. They anticipated that this could include long-range missile strikes by the Pakistan Air Force, from within its own territory, on IAF bases close to the border.
Meanwhile, defence analysts have warned that an escalation triggered by terror strikes renders the entire region highly volatile, considering the Indian and Pakistani nuclear arsenals.
[ Pakistan PM authorises ‘corresponding action’ after India strikes kill 26Opens in new window ]
The proximity of the two countries, their shared history of conflict, lack of robust crisis communication mechanisms and frequent exchanges of artillery and small arms fire along their ad hoc Kashmir border, has had the potential for conventional military face-offs or skirmishes to escalate to the nuclear level.
Under strained circumstances, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine calls for “first use” of strategic weapons if faced with a large-scale conventional attack which poses an “existential threat”. This proactive doctrine is aimed at countering India’s larger conventional military.
India, on the other hand, has a reactive “no first use” policy, under which it would resort to employing nuclear weapons only if similarly attacked first. But analysts say the reliability of this policy in a crisis is debatable.
The lack of transparency and limited communication between Islamabad and Delhi, especially during times of heightened tension, contributes to the region’s designation as a “nuclear flashpoint”.
Analysts also warn that miscalculations or misunderstandings during a crisis could have catastrophic consequences. While some confidence-building measures exist, they are embryonic, fragile and liable to swift abandonment during periods of mounting hostility.
[ India-Pakistan crisis: Varadkar and Yousaf urge leaders to ‘exercise restraint’Opens in new window ]
According to the Federation of American Scientists and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 165-170 warheads and is believed to include short-range, low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, primarily for use against Indian conventional forces.
The two think tanks also claim that despite financial problems, Pakistan continues to expand its cache of weapons of mass destruction by aiming for more than 200 warheads “shortly”, which would make it the world’s fifth-largest nuclear power in warhead terms. This increase would put it ahead of India – which has about 150-155 warheads – Israel and North Korea, but behind the larger strategic weapon stockpiles of the US, Russia, China and France, according to Sipri.
