Venezuela is preparing to face a possible US attack with a military that has suffered a quarter-century of decay under its repressive revolutionary socialist government, experts say.
As a flotilla of US warships sinks alleged drug boats and president Donald Trump threatens land strikes, authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro has wielded a bow and arrow and paraded troops through Caracas.
But after a wave of desertions and decades focused on internal dissent rather than national defence, his military is far from ready for serious conflict, according to analysts, opposition figures and former US officials.
“The entire Venezuelan intelligence system is focused on internal threats,” said Julio Borges, a veteran opposition figure in exile in Spain. He estimates total operational readiness at “30 to 40 per cent at most”.
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Although officially part of a counter-narcotics operation, the flotilla’s size — including amphibious landing craft and three destroyers — has led many to suspect its true mission is to oust Maduro. Trump amplified those fears last week by saying “the land is going to be next”, though he did not specify what countries the strikes would target.
The US has sunk at least 14 alleged drug-trafficking vessels since early September, killing at least 57 people and raising concerns over legality. Last week, the USS Gerald R Ford, Washington’s largest aircraft carrier, was sent to join the flotilla.
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Washington has designated Cuban-trained Maduro as leader of the Cartel of the Suns, allegedly run by members of Venezuela’s elite. Maduro claimed a re-election victory last year in a vote that the US and opposition said was fraudulent.
Most analysts agree that if Washington’s military were to take action on Venezuelan soil, it would be under one of three possible scenarios.
The first is a limited missile or drone attack on military targets suspected of involvement in the drug trade. The second is a snatch-and-grab mission to capture Maduro or other officials. The third, viewed as unlikely, is a full-scale invasion akin to the 1989 operation in Panama that successfully removed dictator Manuel Noriega.
The first scenario would require degrading Venezuela’s air defences, which include Soviet-era Pechora, Buk, and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. Maduro appeared attuned to that possibility during a televised speech on Wednesday, saying 5,000 missiles that can be fired by shoulder-mounted Russian Igla launchers had been distributed.
The Igla launchers would be “practically irrelevant” in stopping targeted US strikes, said Evan Ellis, a former state department official from Trump’s first term.
They are “very short-range weapons which would really only present threats to targets such as low-flying helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles”, said Ellis, who said he “highly” doubted that Maduro had 5,000 functional missiles to deploy.
A Venezuelan government spokesperson said that it is “false” that the armed forces have deteriorated in recent years.
A snatch-and-grab operation would probably need infiltrating the large Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas where Maduro and top officials are believed to spend most of their time.
It would probably use the MV Ocean Trader, which is part of the flotilla and can transport special forces. The ship can deploy “Night Bird” helicopters that have inserted troops behind enemy lines in Somalia and Pakistan, including to kill Osama bin Laden. Trump has also authorised the CIA to carry out covert operations.
To succeed, the mission would have to neutralise central-command units in Caracas, said Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of Buenos Aires-based think-tank Cries.
They would face a “high concentration of forces, munitions and command structures”, he said. “Outside Caracas, the armed forces’ ability to project power is limited in terms of deployment, manning and logistical support.”
Further complicating any attempt on Maduro is his phalanx of Cuban body guards, many of whom have recently been replaced to ensure loyalty, according to businesspeople connected to his regime.
A full-scale invasion would put Venezuela’s entire armed forces to the test.
While the combined forces on paper amount to 120,000 people, analysts say recent desertions by poorly paid troops have brought the number to about 70,000. Many soldiers earn around $30 a month, and morale is believed to be low.
Members of the military and police describe an atmosphere of paranoia. “They are watching us online and in the hallways,” one police officer said. An active army general said top officials regularly move locations “according to protocol”.
Rights group Foro Penal reports that, of 866 political prisoners in Venezuela, 171 are military personnel.
Last month, Maduro showed off his hardware by dispatching 12 naval ships, 22 aircraft — including Russian-built Sukhoi Su-30 and US-built F-16 fighters — and 2,500 troops to La Orchila island for exercises.
Yet, the pilots trained to fly the F-16s are in their 50s and 60s, according to Carlos Paparoni, a US-based opposition figure. “There’s also the problem of maintenance, with radar systems inoperative,” he said.
The DGCIM military counter-intelligence agency, which functions like a praetorian guard, is key to defence.
“Central to any prolonged resistance is the DGCIM, the regime’s true enforcer, with access to rifles, launchers, grenades, M2 machine guns, and light armoured vehicles,” said José Garcia, a Venezuelan military analyst. “They could merge with militias for urban guerrilla warfare, sustaining Maduro’s hold through intimidation and counter-intelligence.”
While Maduro has said 4.5 million militiamen would be available for call up, turnout at recruitment drives has been patchy with some enlistees saying they wouldn’t fight for Maduro.
Opposition figures including Borges and Paparoni estimate the militias can count on about 40,000 trained and armed fighters.
Ellis, now a Latin American Studies professor at the US Army War College, speculated that many soldiers may choose to abandon their posts or sell their equipment.
He asked: “If you’re a Venezuelan sergeant assigned an Igla launcher, probably living marginally or with family abroad, and suddenly a group of US helicopters appear . . . do you take the shot, knowing there’s a 99 per cent chance that you will die a painful death in the next 12 seconds for a regime you don’t believe in?” - Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
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