In a functioning democracy it would be vanishingly hard to imagine an incumbent winning an election with a record like that of Nicolás Maduro.
Since becoming president of Venezuela in 2013, Maduro has overseen the Americas’ worst ever peacetime economic collapse. This in turn has sparked the region’s biggest refugee crisis as 7.7 million Venezuelans – one in four of the population – have fled abroad. As well as grinding poverty many of those left behind have had to face a wave of state terror. The United Nations has accused the Maduro regime of crimes against humanity as death squads under its control have committed thousands of extrajudicial killings in a systematic campaign to repress dissent.
So it is no surprise that apart from those in state media, opinion polls show opposition candidate Edmundo González heading for a decisive victory in Sunday’s presidential election. But Venezuela ceased to be a functioning democracy years ago after the socialist Bolivarian Revolution launched by Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez a quarter of a century ago morphed into an authoritarian dictatorship. This means many observers around the region remain sceptical even now that Maduro will allow an opposition victory or accept one should the electoral court still under his control declare González the winner.
The last reliable nationwide test of public opinion was the reasonably free – if not fair – election in 2015 for the national assembly in which the opposition won a crushing victory. Maduro quickly moved to strip the assembly of its powers and since then he has refused to risk legitimate elections, rigging them instead. His win in 2018′s presidential poll was widely condemned as fraudulent and he has faced down all subsequent efforts at home and abroad to force him from office.
But in an attempt to alleviate the economic crisis in October of last year Maduro signed the so-called Barbados Accord with the opposition. With this he committed to a “free and fair” presidential election in return for the partial lifting of sanctions the US imposed in response to the regime’s increasingly authoritarian turn. The easing of sanctions did provide some economic relief but, as in the past, Maduro sought to pocket the concessions he had won while backtracking on commitments he made to get them.
Maduro had the charismatic conservative opposition leader María Corina Machado barred from running against him, and then did the same to her initial replacement, forcing the opposition to go with its third choice, González. This attempt, just one of many, to tilt the field in the regime’s favour led the Biden administration to reimpose most of the sanctions after just six months. But despite the inauspicious run-up the elections are still set to go ahead on Sunday and the removal of the popular Machado for a little-known diplomat has not dampened popular enthusiasm for the opposition ticket.
In the face of this first serious challenge to Maduro’s authority in years it is unclear how legitimate the vote will be. The regime has resisted international efforts to observe it, even by regional leftist politicians, raising fears it could again resort to fraud as in the past. As to the likelihood of Maduro accepting defeat, he has warned that if González does win the country would fall “into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war”. There are also fears he could manufacture a regional crisis as a gambit for staying in power by escalating the border dispute with neighbouring Guyana over the oil-rich region of Essequibo.
[ Venezuelans vow to leave the country if Nicolás Maduro wins electionOpens in new window ]
Maduro and his circle have multiple reasons for trying to hang on. As well as the possibility of prosecution for human rights abuses, there is also the risk that, out of office, they could be held to account for the epic looting of state coffers during the 25 years chavismo has been in power. The involvement of military commanders in the widespread criminality, including drug-trafficking by the Cartel of the Suns network of military officers, means that as in the past Maduro would be confident of relying on the army should he decide to face down demands he quit. And while pressure to do so will be intense from the US and EU, Caracas knows it can count on support from key regime allies Cuba, Iran and Russia if it decides to dig in.
A more benign scenario floated by some in Caracas sees chavismo acknowledge defeat but use its control of state institutions to bully the opposition during the long transition until Sunday’s winner is eventually sworn in on January 10th - in order to secure guarantees that regime insiders will not face retribution for their actions while in power. Many in the opposition would baulk at such concessions. But after 25 years that have ruined the country, this might represent the best chance Venezuelans have of ejecting Maduro from the presidential palace and starting the long process of rebuilding their devastated nation. But before then Venezuelans must first get through an election day that looks set to be marked by extraordinary levels of uncertainty, despite the polls.
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