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Little doubt MetroLink would get the green light, but what will be the bottom line?

Cost of largest infrastructure project in the history of the State will certainly be very far north of €3.5bn estimate back in 2010

Computer generated images of Metrolink, the planned Dublin metro train running from Swords to Ranelagh
The north Dublin public will be the biggest users of MetroLink, with airport passengers accounting for fewer than one-fifth

After three years and two days in the planning system, and decades more in gestation, the MetroLink rail line, the largest infrastructure project in the history of the State, has been granted permission by An Coimisiún Pleanála.

There was never much doubt MetroLink would secure a positive decision. A rail line from north Dublin to the city, serving the airport, has been Government policy for a quarter of a century, and an aspiration for about 50 years.

Just how very positive that decision is might come as a surprise. The railway order published by the commission on Thursday diverges very little from the application made by State transport developer Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) back in September 2022.

The 18.8km line running from Swords to Dublin Airport, then on to Ballymun, Glasnevin, O’Connell Street and St Stephen’s Green before terminating at Charlemont, with 16 stations in all, has been approved in its entirety.

There are 31 conditions attached, but these largely relate to construction controls and traffic management issues, with some modifications to station design and changes to reflect agreements reached by TII with various parties during the course of the planning hearings held in February of last year.

In contrast, when the State last tried to develop a metro in 2010, An Bord Pleanála, the commission’s predecessor, lopped three stops and 2.3km from the line in its railway order. Metro North, as it was then called, was shelved the following year, the then €3.5 billion cost being too much for the recession-ravaged economy to bear.

While the approval of MetroLink was expected, it will still come as a relief to proponents of the scheme, not least Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien, in whose north Dublin constituency the line originates, and most particularly his constituents.

The travelling public of north Dublin will make up the largest proportion of users of MetroLink, with airport passengers accounting for fewer than one-fifth of customers.

Swords, the third-largest town in the State, with a population of more than 40,000, has no rail service, leaving public transport users entirely reliant on buses. Car commuters face peak time journeys of more than an hour to the city – on the metro, that journey should be cut to 25 minutes.

Depicting MetroLink as primarily an airport service is an example of Michael O’Leary’s myopic thinkingOpens in new window ]

Not everyone will be thrilled by the planning commission’s decision. More than 300 parties made submissions on the planning application and while many of these were supportive of the project, 120 sought to address the planning hearings held in February of last year, and most of these were resolutely not.

Objections ranged from people whose homes and businesses will be demolished, and those concerned about damage to their properties, to others with objections to particular station locations or designs, as well as those who felt the entire project was a misbegotten venture.

The commission, in its ruling, acknowledged there will be “significant adverse impacts” at a number of locations, but said such impacts “must be balanced against the very significant wider societal benefits and common good that will accrue from the provision of a high-quality underground rail system”.

Affected property owners will be entitled to financial compensation, and they, and others who made submissions, may now choose to accept the railway order. Those who don’t will have six weeks to lodge judicial review proceedings against the commission’s decision.

Possible legal action does not prevent TII – or more likely the new “statutory delivery body” which O’Brien announced on Thursday will take over responsibility for the construction of the project – from seeking indicative tenders to build MetroLink. These bids to build will form a final business case which will be presented to Government for approval.

It was at this point in 2011 the government pulled the plug.

If the current Government is happy with the indicative costs, which can safely be put at far north of €3.5 billion, but will only be known following the procurement process, a preferred bidder will be chosen, with the Government again asked to sign off on the final contract.

It is likely this will happen in 2027. Then construction can begin. The length of this phase will significantly depend on the consortium chosen, but it is expect to take no less than eight years, meaning the first trains could arrive in 2035.