Tell The Nipper looks best in open contest

Today's £125,000 Jameson Irish Grand National provides its usual Easter Monday brain-teaser, perhaps even more so than usual…

Today's £125,000 Jameson Irish Grand National provides its usual Easter Monday brain-teaser, perhaps even more so than usual.

Compared to Flashing Steel (1995) or Desert Orchid (1990), this year's contest provides no outstanding horse, and while a similar field could have been attracted with just a fraction of the prize money, it does mean an extremely open handicap with any number in with a chance.

The Midlands Grand National winner, Miss Orchestra, will perhaps start favourite. The Jessica Harrington-trained mare is really only a novice, but in a year which has provided outstanding novice form, both she and the SunAlliance Chase fifth Eton Gale are sure to attract a lot of support.

The record books also provide encouragement for those who will side with the youngsters. The likes of Rhyme N'Reason and Maid Of Money were novice winners of this race in 1980s and both became top class chasers later in their careers. The problem with that theory is that while Miss Orchestra and Eton Gale are clearly talented, it's difficult to envisage them ultimately progressing to be Grade one conditions performers like their predecessors.

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The trend of the last five years has also gone against novices, with the Irish National winners emerging as hardened, tough horses, and in today's sticky conditions, it looks worth wagering that a similarly doughty performer is the one to be on. The problem is that there are plenty of such candidates.

The top of the handicap is full of them. Papillon, Wylde Hide, Call It A Day and Time For A Run could all run big races, especially the latter, whose cruising speed should allow him travel easily throughout most of the three miles and five furlongs.

Call It A Day could be best of the four British horses, bidding to win this race for the visitors for the fourth time, but the Irish National is a strength-sapping event and usually it's only horses from the very highest class that can carry extreme weights in it successfully. It looks best to concentrate on those below the 11st mark.

Of those, Dessie Hughes's Roundwood could run a big race at a big price but ultimately Tell The Nipper, on 10-12 and with big-race specialist Graham Bradley on his back, appeals as the hardy, staying, decently-weighted horse to be on.

Tell The Nipper was the one who took advantage of Miss Orchestra's last fence fall in February's National Trial over the course. Miss Orchestra would probably have won had she stood up, but Tell The Nipper would not have been disgraced and is now 6lb better off. Of course, Miss Orchestra has progressed since then but the four on Tell The Nipper's form card since then doesn't tell all the story.

The Michael Hourigan-trained seven-year-old ran in the William National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham behind Unguided Missile but ruined his chance by persistently jumping to the right. Tell The Nipper gave away a lot of distance but was still bang there at the second last before weakening.

On that evidence, the gelding is going the right way around today and is better than the bare Cheltenham from might suggest. Tell The Nipper also stays well, acts on the ground, and despite being only seven, has enough experience for the hurly-burly of the big race.

Graham Bradley won this race 13 years ago on Rhyme N'Reason, and in Tell The Nipper looks to have the material to banish the memory of that gallant but ultimately fruitless Aintree National effort on Suny Bay nine days ago.

1. Tell The Nipper

2. Miss Orchestra

3. Roundwood

The Jameson Gold Cup Hurdle is the main supporting race on the Fairyhouse card, and despite having to give weight away, it's difficult to get away from Native Estates as the likely winner.

The Noel Meade-trained gelding has been in the top flight of the Irish novices this season and was well fancied to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, only to enjoy no luck at all in the race.

Native Estates was baulked twice at critical stages and looks a lot better than the eventual seventh to French Ballerina might suggest. He has to give up 7lb away in today's £20,000 race but at his best should do so successfully.

Meade, who runs both Eton Gale and Heist in the Grand National, could also take the preceding handicap hurdle through Fishin Joella. This mare hasn't enjoyed the best of luck this season, injurying herself before the Ladbroke, for which she was fancied, and then finishing lame at Naaslast time. The trip should not be too much of a problem for her and Derrymoyle's acceptance gives her an attractive looking weight.

In the opener, Darapour looks the obvious one, but it will be interesting to see how much a hard race in the Triumph has taken out of him.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column