If it was decided on merit, the AIB League trophy's first trip outside Munster would automatically go to St Mary's. They've been the one other ever-present club in the top flight, the one club to have consistently knocked on the door only to be turned away, and they topped the table this season. Alas, it's not that simple.
While St Mary's may feel they deserve the title more, and may want it more, the question is whether they'll want it too much. That may or may not have been the underlying flaw in their mental make-up a year ago when they threw away a 17-3 interval lead against 14 men at Garryowen. They hate being reminded of that day, and with good reason. To a large degree, the landmark 20-6 win at Dooradoyle this season ought to have exorcised those demons. Besides that was then, and this is now.
They've also been saddled with that Irish pet hate, favouritism, though Brent Pope has been refreshingly honest by admitting that. "We've spoken about that and at this stage you've got to handle the mantle of favouritism. I remember at Waikato when we played Auckland, they wore the favourites' tag well and were quite arrogant about it. We're playing well and we had to be favourites seeing as we're at home and we topped the league. The training's been good, the spirit's good, and the team performances have been good. If we play the way we've been playing and our big players perform, then we can win it."
Therein lies the rub, for Mary's will need big games from Victor Costello, Trevor Brennan and Malcolm O'Kelly to have the edge in scrums and line-outs, to make the hard yards, keep the home side going forward and tie up the Ballymena pack.
Though Mark McHugh has nailed down the out-half slot in prolific style, if Ballymena can hold their own up front, they could have a significant advantage from nine to 13, where Mary's can get a little bottled up. Mark Edwards has a decent service, the naturalised Kiwi Simon Broughton brings his Maori sevens running skills to bear, and there's few better midfield combinations than Rhys Botha and Shane Stewart. Further out though, Mary's have more pace and potency.
Transfromed this season, Ballymena, on a roll, are as dangerous as anyone and have a real winning chance. Ultimately, though, Mary's should now be stronger in a crisis and, significantly, in recent meetings the win has always gone to the home side.
ST MARY'S COLLEGE: P McKenna; J McWeeney, G Gannon, R McIlreavy, D Hickie; M McHugh, P Lynch; P Coyle, P Smyth, D Clare, I Bloomer, M O'Kelly, T Brennan, V Costello, R Doyle.
BALLYMENA: S Mason; J Topping, S Stewart, R Botha, S McDowell; S Broughton, M Edwards; N McKernan, A Stewart, C Millar, M Blair, G Longwell, A Graham, D O'Cuinneagain, D Topping.
REFEREE: Dave McHugh (Munster).
LAST TWO YEARS: ('98-99) Ballymena 23 St Mary's 13; ('99-00) St Mary's 42 Ballymena 5.
LAST FIVE GAMES: St Mary's - W W L W W. Ballymena - W W W L W.
LEADING TRY SCORERS: St Mary's - John McWeeney 9, Denis Hickie 4. Ballymena - Simon Broughton 6, Dion O'Cuinneagain 5.
LEADING POINTS SCORERS: St Mary's - Mark McHugh 130. Ballymena - Simon Mason - 124.
BOOKIES ODDS (Paddy Powers): 4/9 St Mary's, 18/1 Draw, 7/4 Ballymena. Handicap odds = Ballymena +7pts: 10/11 St Mary's, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Ballymena.
FORECAST: St Mary's to win.
