It’s almost as if there’s a secret Fifa committee that sets about creating the most convoluted World Cup qualifying process imaginable, just for the craic. And hats off to them, the route they’ve produced to Brazil 2027 looks positively labyrinthine – unless you make it painlessly direct for yourself by winning your qualifying group.
It could, then, end up being a lengthy enough journey to qualification, but the Republic of Ireland will know the size of the initial phase of the challenge some time after noon on Tuesday when the draw for the World Cup qualifiers, which will be streamed live on Uefa.com, is made.
Carla Ward’s crew are in League A which is made up of 16 nations spread across four groups. The four group winners will automatically qualify for Brazil, but it gets a bit more complicated for the rest.
You have questions about how it all works? So do we, to be honest, but we’ll have a go at answering them.
RM Block
How does that Nations League playoff win over Belgium impact Ireland’s World Cup qualifying hopes?
It meant that Ireland were promoted to League A of the World Cup qualifying process – so even if they were to finish bottom of their group, they will still be guaranteed a two-leg playoff against a nation that finishes second or third in their League B group. If Ireland were to finish second or third in their group, they would face a nation from League C in the play-offs.
So, win that playoff and you qualify for the World Cup?
God no, this is Fifa we’re talking about here. That initial playoff would effectively be a semi-final – win it and it puts you through to a play-off “final”.
So, win that and you qualify for the World Cup?
Well ... possibly.
Ah here ...
I know, I know. Seven of the eight playoff winners will qualify, but the eighth – based on their overall ranking in the league phase of the qualifiers – will go in to an inter-confederation playoff in February of 2027. There, they will play a nation from Asia, Africa, Oceania or South America.
Cripes – what are the chances of Ireland winning their group and bypassing this convolution?
To be honest, very, very slim. That’s because they’re in with the elite in League A, and are certain to be drawn with at least two nations ranked well above them. Here are the pots for Tuesday’s draw (with world rankings in brackets):
Pot 1: Spain (1), Sweden (3), Germany (5), France (6)
Pot 2: England (4), Netherlands (11), Italy (12), Norway (13)
Pot 3: Denmark (14), Iceland (17), Austria (19), Poland (26)
Pot 4: Republic of Ireland (27), Ukraine (34), Serbia (35), Slovenia (38)
The home and away games will be played between March and June of next year.
Worst case scenario?
Probably Ireland getting drawn with the world and European champions, Spain and England, respectively. Ideally, they’ll get France, Italy/Norway and Poland (which would be no shoo-in either). Which means they’ll probably draw Spain and England.
Any other complications?
Of course: “winter venue restrictions”. Uefa, who have obviously never visited Ireland in March, have picked out Iceland, Norway and Sweden as the three nations with “high or medium risk of severe winter conditions”, so in order to minimise the risk of “matches being negatively affected”, only two of those nations can be drawn together in a group.
So, if they all come out of the hat for the same group, watch as Uefa officials scramble for the rule book.
Will the actual World Cup be over by the time this qualifying process is done?
Hopefully not.
