Six Nations: Italy v Ireland,
Stadio Olimpico, Rome,
Saturday, 2.15pm (Live on RTÉ)
Rainy weather on arrival for the advancing Green Army sightseers, the potential disruptions caused by an admittedly well-meaning, pro-European/pro-Ukraine demonstration on match day and threats of strike action by unions representing aviation workers on Sunday.
Oh yes, and no Grand Slam on the line and, most likely, no history-making title either. Although it’s forecast to be a warm afternoon in Rome come kick-off, this is not exactly how the Irish squad and the estimated 25,000 or so Irish travelling supporters had envisaged their St Patrick’s weekend panning out.
But thanks to last week’s 42-27 beating by France at home, Ireland have left themselves sitting ducks for England and Les Bleus in today’s tilt for the title. Up first, Ireland would need to beat Italy with a bonus point, then hope they make up eight points or more on England as they at least fall short of a bonus point win in Cardiff, and finally that France fail to beat Scotland with the title theirs for the taking, in reality, pending any kind of win.
Admittedly, several favourites have toppled in a week of surprises at Cheltenham. Still, Ireland are now 20-1 to win the title, with England at 17-2 and France 1-10 favourites. ‘Nuff said.
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In truth, the title is gone, and third place beckons, behind an English team that Ireland had convincingly beaten on the opening weekend.
No matter how the final table eventually reads, of course, the sheer scale of last week’s defeat can never be erased from the record books, nor the scars. But, crucially, this game will either compound those wounds or at least begin to ease them. Now, arguably, the performance matters more than it would have done with a slam beckoning, when the result would have been paramount. For this display will make a statement of some sort, as well as mark a final outing together as a group.
Having said goodbye to Cian Healy last week, here the team bids arrivederci to Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray, and no more fitting place to send off two centurions than Rome, provided there is no repeat of the sole loss here on the final day in 2013.
O’Mahony and Murray are the sole playing survivors from that day, when the carnage wreaked upon that Irish team meant O’Mahony played most of the game as an emergency winger. The defeat also marked the end of Declan Kidney’s time as head coach, just four seasons after guiding Ireland to a Grand Slam.
But in saying goodbye to a couple of Munster warriors, this game perhaps also marks something of a new beginning for this squad, and so has assumed a different importance, which is altogether more relevant for the team than the travelling hordes.
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“We weren’t good enough in lots of areas last week,” admitted Simon Easterby. “And I think the squad have a real internal motivation to perform and to play at their best when they play in an Irish jersey.
“We didn’t match those expectations and the standards that would have been set across a good period of time. We didn’t get to those standards last week.
“So, our challenge and the challenge for the players is to put in their best performance yet. That’s all we’ve talked about. And you’re right, it’s a different dynamic. We can’t change what went on last Saturday, but we can certainly have an impact on the performance and the right result this weekend.
“And then who knows? There’s a chance and we just need to make sure we’ve prepared in the right way this week against a really good Italian team who will want to put it up to us. The type of performance they’ve put in in the last few weeks is probably disappointing as well.
“It’s an intriguing matchup. We know what we need to do to get the best out of ourselves and we need to make sure we’ve a full focus on that.”
Easterby has made six changes to his starting XV in recalling Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, James Lowe, Jack Crowley, James Ryan and Jack Conan.
Ringrose and the returning wingers ought to give a better balance to a defence which has had some curious set-ups and malfunctions, and has been beaten on the edges too often for comfort in this championship. Conan’s elevation should generate more go-forward ball. For his part, the recalled Crowley is under pressure to reignite an attack which looked blunt last week, not least by bringing those wingers into the game.
Gonzalo Quesada has been even more drastic in overhauling the Italian XV beaten by England last Sunday. The most notable change is Manuel Zuliani replacing captain Michele Lamaro, with Juan Ignacio Brex taking over the captaincy. Lorenzo Cannone also returns in the backrow, while Dino Lamb and Federico Ruzza form a new secondrow, with tight-head Simone Ferrari and hooker Gianmarco Lucchesi also recalled.
Martin Page-Relo replaces Stephen Varney at scrumhalf, and Tommaso Allan returns at fullback, meaning the danger man Ange Capuozzo reverts to the right wing. On the bench, Italy have opted for a 6-2 split.
Italy have been a curious case this season. Their defence has wilted badly in the second halves against France and England, yet they also have fired plenty of shots, scoring six tries in those defeats.
The Azzurri have an excellent return from their clever and varied kicking game and have perhaps the championship’s best midfield partnership in Tommaso Menoncello and Brex, as well as a real menace in the slippery Capuozzo.
“They are really dangerous, really tricky,” said Easterby. “I think their axis of 10-12-13 are really strong and important, especially in attack. Garbisi, if it’s him, if it’s Tommaso Allan, they have that kicking game which can hurt teams. But also Brex and Menoncello are class players. They’ve got real strong elements to their game and they are involved in the attacking game a lot.
“They give them a lot of go-forward. So yeah, it’s a really good challenge for us and one that the players are really looking forward to.”
It’s generally to the benefit of a game when Luke Pearce is in charge, as he’s a very good referee who likes to let a game flow and he doesn’t seem to dislike Irish teams as some English officials do.
This team needs a professional, accurate and clinical display to tick plenty of boxes to banish at least some of their French demons.
Italy: Tommaso Allan (USAP, France); Ange Capuozzo (Stade Toulousain), Juan Ignacio Brex (Benetton Rugby, capt), Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton Rugby), Monty Ioane (LOU, France); Paolo Garbisi (RC Toulon), Martin Page-Relo (LOU, France); Danilo Fischetti (Zebre Parma), Gianmarco Lucchesi (RC Toulon), Simone Ferrari (Benetton Rugby), Dino Lamb (Harlequins), Federico Ruzza (Benetton Rugby), Sebastian Negri (Benetton Rugby), Manuel Zuliani (Benetton Rugby), Lorenzo Cannone (Benetton Rugby). Replacements: Giacomo Nicotera (Stade Francais), Mirco Spagnolo (Benetton Rugby), Giosuè Zilocchi (Benetton Rugby), Niccolò Cannone (Benetton Rugby), Michele Lamaro (Benetton Rugby), Ross Vintcent (Exeter Chiefs), Stephen Varney (RC Vannes, France), Leonardo Marin (Benetton Rugby).
Ireland: Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster); Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht); Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster); James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster), Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Corinthians/Connacht), James Ryan (UCD/Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster), Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster), Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster), Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster, capt). Replacements: Gus McCarthy (UCD/Leinster), Jack Boyle (UCD/Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster), Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster); Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster), Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster), Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster), Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht).
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)
Overall head-to-head: Played 37, Italy 4 wins, 0 draws, Ireland 33 wins.
Last five meetings: (2024) Ireland 36 Italy 0. (2023) Ireland 33 Italy 17. (2023): Italy 20 Ireland 34-20; (2022) Ireland 57 Italy 6. (2021) Italy 10 Ireland 48.
Betting (Paddy Power): 9-1 Italy, 50-1 Draw, 1-16. Handicap odds (Italy + 21pts), Evens Italy, 16/1 Draw, Ireland Evens.
Forecast: Ireland to win by 15 to 20 points.
