Coach: Gregor Townsend
Co-captains: Rory Darge, Finn Russell.
Overview
Sione Tuipulotu’s injury is a devastating blow across a number of fronts as player, captain and totem. The 27-year-old centre, who suffered a pectoral injury in training that required surgery that will see him miss the entire Six Nations Championship, had been in outstanding form for both his club and country.
His rugby relationship with his Glasgow Warriors team-mate Huw Jones ensured the pair provided Scotland with a lethal midfield combination, Tuipulotu’s bristling power and aggression in contact on both sides of the ball, and Jones elegant footwork, angles of running, and blistering pace.
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Tuipulotu, who had been a front-runner to travel with the Lions to Australia in the summer, leaves a sizeable hole in Scotland’s attacking matrix. It’s not just how adept the Australian-born centre was at punching holes but his capacity to take slow ball and make it beyond the gain-line. Any time Finn Russell was in trouble he had the option to call on his captain.
So, who replaces Tuipulotu? The most obvious candidate is the 6ft 4in Stafford McDowall, strong in the carry, a good passer and tackler, a left-footed kicking option and a player who Ireland might recall had a fine game against them last year.
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Northampton Saints in-form centre Rory Hutchinson is another option. Injuries to Kyle Steyn, likely to miss the Ireland match, Cameron Redpath and Adam Hastings have given head coach Gregor Townsend less wriggle room to shuffle personnel.
Secondrow Scott Cummings (arm), and backrow Josh Bayliss (groin) also sustained injuries which prompted Townsend to call up a further five players Euan Ferrie, Cameron Henderson, Ewan Johnson, Alexander Masibaka and Ollie Smith to the squad in advance of their opening game against Italy.
Masibaka is an interesting choice. The Australian-born 23-year-old, who can play right across the back row, has impressed this season in France’s Pro D2 playing with Soyaux-Angoulême scoring 12 tries in 30 matches. He is on loan from French top 14 side, Montpellier.
He previously played for Western Force in Australia and qualifies for Scotland through his Paisley-born mother. Glasgow’s Jack Mann would be a stronger contender, one of two uncapped players alongside New Zealand-born outhalf Fergus Burke.
The fact that he wasn’t an original inclusion in Townsend’s squad suggests that he would have to be quite remarkable in training to parachute his way into the match day 23 for the weekend. Secondrow Max Williamson showed in the Autumn Nations series that he has both the aptitude and the physical capacity for Test rugby, but he too is injured, while Jonny Gray, likely to start, is short of game time.
The Scots have an excellent front row including a potential Lions tighthead in Zander Fagerson. Pierre Schoeman does a lot more than just scrum while Ewan Ashman has gone from a super underage player to a fine senior Test match hooker. The second row injury profile is worrying but Scotland have an abundance of excellent backrow forwards spearheaded by Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge and Jack Dempsey.
In the recent past the Scots got a bit of grief for shouting the odds about their title-winning credentials without backing it up. The injuries will dial down that expectation a tad, but it doesn’t diminish the fact that on their day, the Scots are a good team with some outstanding individuals.
The key to their ambition is how the pack performs in the set piece and at the breakdown because they have the backs to damage any team. They are perhaps a little light in a couple of positions but if they can avoid any further injury issues and bring their best iteration to match days, they will be a handful for anyone.
Player to watch: Blair Kinghorn’s move to Toulouse has seen him take a significant developmental leap particularly as an attacking player. While Finn Russell remains the primary alchemist in playmaking terms, Kinghorn alongside wings Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham have the speed and power to form a lethal back three. Scotland need Kinghorn to unpack his Toulouse form consistently over the next seven weeks.
Title odds: 8/1
Last three finishes: fourth, third, fourth.
Fixtures (all times Irish): Saturday, February 1st: Scotland v Italy, Murrayfield (2.15). Sunday, February 9th: Scotland v Ireland, Murrayfield (3.0). Saturday, February 22nd: England v Scotland, Twickenham (4.45). Saturday, March 8th: Scotland v Wales, Murrayfield (4.45). England v Italy, Twickenham (3.0). Saturday, March 15th: France v Scotland, Stade de France (8.0)
Prospects: There is a sense that match weekend two, when Scotland host Ireland at Murrayfield on the Sunday afternoon is a pivotal fixture for Gregor Townsend and his charges. Win that one and the confidence and momentum it would engender would anoint the Scots as genuine title contenders. Three of their first four games are at home with a trip to Twickenham thrown in, Scotland have shown a liking for Paris in times past; the fixtures have fallen nicely if the Scots perform.
