It seems fairly safe to presume that never before have Ireland gone into a Six Nations game against England, least of all at Twickenham, as such red-hot favourites.
After runs of 11 successive Six Nations wins and four in a row against England, Ireland are 1/5 favourites to win and -12 points on the handicap.
When the well-oiled machine of 2018 under Joe Schmidt came to a Baltic Twickenham on St Patrick’s Day in 2018 they could be backed at evens to win until just before kick-off. This time, the weight of favouritism is actually unnerving, especially for those who have a better idea of what it’s like to lose in the home of English rugby than to win.
But, thankfully, one of the keys to this Irish team’s unprecedented run of 20 wins in their last 21 Tests is that you don’t give two hoots to any of these outside noises or distractions, and hence avoid any tendency towards complacency or not treating opponents with respect.
“It’s not something that we really buy into,” said Peter O’Mahony with what seemed like a slightly weary sigh when asked about the strangeness of all this favouritism talk.
“I know you’re probably sick of hearing it from me but it’s a Test match tomorrow, Ireland versus England. It’s about who plays better tomorrow. It’s not about anything else. It’s not about previous form or where you stand, it’s about who plays better tomorrow and that’s something that we’ve always been focused on, our performance.
“We know if we play well tomorrow we’ll be in with a shout. But if we don’t fire this English team has incredible quality and can beat anyone on their day. It’s not long ago they were competing in the last two games of the World Cup. We know we’re in for a huge test tomorrow here at Twickenham as always.”
O’Mahony was speaking after his first Captain’s Run at Twickenham. He has good reason to treat England with respect, for he has a personal 7-8 win-loss record against them and has been on the winning side twice, and losing side six times, in eight visits to the cathedral of English rugby union.
“Look, I think playing away, winning away at any stadium in this competition is incredibly tough. Look at the stats across the however many Six Nations. It’s tough to win away from home, regardless of where you are and nowhere more so than Twickenham. It’s obviously a fortress of rugby for England.
“Certainly we’ve picked up some wins here. But you look at them and we’ve had to play unbelievably well to get the wins. Some unbelievable rugby that we played, and that’s what tomorrow is going to take, a special performance from the group. You’re going to get sick of me saying it, but it’s about the performance tomorrow. It’s an incredibly difficult place to come and play and even more difficult to win.”
Specifically, he spoke of England’s famed set-pieces when asked about the opponents’ qualities.
“I think tenacity in their set-piece, their ability to disrupt the set-piece is through the roof. I think their ability with regard to disrupting the breakdown, the quality of poachers they have, counter-ruckers. Their power game is really, really strong. Their forwards tuck around the corner and their backs have a balance of knowing when to play when it is on. Again, it is a massive defensive job for us tomorrow, the way they attack.”
Still, this is an exceptional Irish team. There is no getting away from it. The stats back it up, although there is no overriding ingredient or factor.
“The problem is you can’t pick one thing, there are so many moving parts, there is so much to work on, in opposition, in us. It’s about who can put the whole package together. We’ve done that to a certain extent in the last few games, but you know every time we come back on a Sunday or Monday and are back in camp, we’ve loads of stuff to do or work on, you know every team chases the perfect performance but every team would acknowledge it’s not going to happen.
“And you know, the hunger I think and the desire from the group to consistently get better is probably what stand out to me. But again, it’s hard to put your finger on one thing, you’ve got to put them all together.”
Even so, the Irish captain found it difficult to say whether this was the best Irish team he has played in, even though this most assuredly has to be the case.
“Erm . . . look, I’ve been lucky to play with lots of good players and teams. If I had to nail the colours to the mast I’d have to say `yes’.
“It’s hard to compare because rugby has moved on and the game is different but in a short answer I think it is. I think the quality of player, it’s a really, really healthy, good, thought-provoking, enjoyable environment but obviously the quality of performance and results speaks for itself.
“Hard to compare but yeah, it’s certainly up there anyway.”
