Hugo Keenan is set to return to the Irish team at fullback for their fourth round 2024 Guinness Six Nations match against England at Twickenham. This may possibly be the only change to the starting line-up compared to the 31-7 win over Wales almost a fortnight ago when the matchday 23 is announced on Thursday prior to the squad’s departure for London.
All the indications are that Andy Farrell will retain the 6-2 split on the bench which was preferred for the statement 38-17 victory over France on the opening night in Marseille and then restored against Wales.
Although Garry Ringrose has resumed full training since the latter game, he hasn’t played in six weeks and, perhaps partly as a consequence of the 6-2 configuration as well, he may miss out on the squad at Twickenham given Ciarán Frawley’s greater versatility. And as well as offering cover at outhalf, centre and fullback, Frawley also offers back-up as goalkicker.
Despite also recovering from a dislocated toe, Iain Henderson could well miss out again too, even with an additional back five forward among the replacements now being de rigeur. This is simply testament to the form of Joe McCarthy and Tadhg Beirne in the starting line-up, and also James Ryan and Ryan Baird off the bench.
Indeed, McCarthy and Baird, along with Crowley, have been the main climbers in the fall-out from the World Cup. McCarthy has simply forced his way into the starting secondrow to such an extent that, as well as having a galvanising effect on Beirne, his inclusion is no longer even subject to debate.
Crowley has impressively grasped the baton which was passed on by Johnny Sexton, while Baird has responded to a personally disappointing World Cup - when restricted to replacement cameos amounting to 45 minutes in the pool wins over Tonga and South Africa - by producing the best rugby of his career.
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Helped by having a regular run of games with both Leinster and Ireland, and now seen as more of a specialist six than a hybrid lock/blindside, Baird’s form is such that he is probably the single biggest reason for the shift to a 6-2 bench.
Choosing a forward-loaded bench was a significant factor in the win over France and arguably an even bigger one against Wales, when the arrival of Rónan Kelleher especially, as well as Baird, Ryan and Jack Conan, contributed to a much more direct approach.
Ireland produced some of their best rugby in the final quarter when scoring two fine tries and having another dubiously disallowed despite no clear evidence of a forward tip-on by Robbie Henshaw before the deftest of transfers by Baird - which went largely unnoticed.
This improvement was in large part due to more direct running and earning the right to go wide, rather than the sometimes lateral and elaborate approach in the first period which, apparently, left Farrell less than best pleased.
Oli Jager also returned to full training this week after sitting out last week’s two-day get-together and the open training session in the Aviva Stadium with the Irish Under-20s. The 28-year-old won his first cap against Wales off the bench, which constituted a heartwarming story after his circuitous route from Blackrock College via the Crusaders and recently Munster.
However, a hunch says Finlay Bealham may be recalled as back-up to Tadhg Furlong. The Connacht prop has established himself as the latter’s understudy in the last three seasons, putting in important shifts in wins over the Springboks and the All Blacks in recent years. Bealham also filled in so ably in the opening three rounds of last season’s Grand Slam success.
But despite Frawley’s impressive, try-scoring full Test debut against Wales, it is the anticipated return of Keenan which, if it comes to pass, would be particularly reassuring for the Irish supporters in Twickenham next Saturday.
No Irish player has accumulated more minutes (2,916) under Farrell than Keenan. Prior to the Welsh game last Saturday week, the normally indestructible Keenan had started 32 of Ireland’s last 36 Test matches since February 2021 at fullback, therefore making him the first name on the team sheet in more ways than one.
The England team will also be announced on Thursday and whether Steve Borthwick opts to retain George Ford, as expected, or recall the fit-again Marcus Smith, an aerial bombardment seems likely as they look to derail Ireland’s bid for back-to-back Grand Slams.
Ireland vs England (possible): H Keenan; C Nash, R Henshaw, B Aki, J Lowe; J Crowley, J Gibson-Park; A Porter, D Sheehan, T Furlong; J McCarthy, T Beirne, P O’Mahony (capt), J van der Flier, C Doris.
Replacements: R Kelleher, C Healy, F Bealham or O Jager, J Ryan, R Baird, J Conan, C Murray, C Frawley.
