The third round sure felt a little like its near equivalent in golf, aka moving day.
Granted, there’s longer to go in the Champions Cup, not least with the knock-out stages, but the weekend just gone appeared to underline that despite the obvious resurgence by some English clubs, Leinster remain the main obstacle to the French heavyweights, which have now been swelled by a third force.
For sure there were handsome bonus-point wins for some of the dark horses, such as the Bulls, Northampton and Munster.
But between them, Leinster, Toulouse, La Rochelle and Bordeaux-Begles scored 30 tries and ran up almost 200 points.
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True, every season the pool stages seem to witness an opposition club sending a weakened side to face Leo Cullen’s team and, as was the case with Stade Français last Saturday, the more emphatic the Leinster win, the more it seems to be devalued. Next Saturday in Welford Road will tell us much more.
But there’s no doubting the pedigree and class of the beaten finalists for the last two seasons.
While the void left by Johnny Sexton has been compounded by Ross Byrne’s injury, the emergence of Joe McCarthy and the ongoing post-World Cup form and wellbeing of messrs Porter, Sheehan, Doris, Gibson-Park, Ringrose, Keenan et al also ensures Leinster will be bulk suppliers when Ireland seek to retain their Six Nations crown.
But there’s also no doubting France will be a fearsome proposition on Six Nations opening night in the Stade Velodrome on Friday fortnight, February 2nd, when one considers Les Bleus will be largely drawn from Toulouse, La Rochelle and Bordeaux-Begles, whose performances in Europe suggest they are finding a cure for the French World Cup hangover.
Granted, the star man, Antoine Dupont (who was ridiculously good even by his standards in the Kingspan on Sunday night) won’t be around for the Six Nations.
But he seems to have been rejuvenated by training with the French Olympic Sevens squad and, knowing his 15-a-side obligations will be confined to his club, is playing with even more freedom. And with Thomas Ramos as effective at outhalf as at fullback until the March return of Romain Ntamack, Toulouse can only benefit accordingly as they chase a sixth star.
Considering how Ulster performed against Toulouse in the Round of 16 two seasons ago when losing 50-49 on aggregate, especially when winning the away first leg in Le Stadium, the sudden chasm between the sides on Saturday night was palpably deflating.
Ulster did not scale those heights but it was as much a case of Toulouse moving on to another level. With their return to ‘Europe’, they have rediscovered their mojo.
Watching La Rochelle, with their unrivalled battery of physical bruisers, pummel Leicester into submission on a big screen in Marseille on late Sunday afternoon made one appreciate even more the scale of Leinster’s win in the Stade Deflandre in the first round.
Admittedly, Ronan O’Gara’s back-to-back champions still face a shoot-out away to Sale next Sunday lunchtime, but they are a different proposition with the rested Gregory Alldritt back and firing. Likely to captain France in the absence of Dupont and the injured Charles Ollivon, Alldritt’s duel with Doris alone in the Velodrome will be worth the watch.
In truth, Begles-Bordeaux have been the third force in the Top 14 for the last two seasons, twice reaching the French Championship semi-finals.
The arrival of Damian Penaud was a statement signing, and in tandem with the emergence of French Under-20 World Cup-winning centre Nicolas Depoortère and winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey has given them a sharper cutting edge to add to their blend of set-piece and carrying power up front.
With Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert at half-back as well as both wingers, they could supply four of the French backline against Ireland.
Once their head coach Yannick Bru, a two-time Champions Cup winner with Toulouse, unveiled his selection for their opening game in the Sportsground, it was clear that ala La Rochelle under O’Gara, les Girondins had suddenly taken a more pro-European view of this competition.
The 55 points and nine tries scored by Bordeaux-Begles last Sunday were both tournament highs for the club, and they picked Saracens of all teams to achieve the landmarks.
Watching them eviscerate the three-time champions at a packed Stade Chaban-Delmas on Sunday evening at least put Connacht’s woes on opening night into perspective. They were 25/1 before opening night in the outright betting. They are 6/1 joint third favourites alongside La Rochelle and behind Leinster and Toulouse now.
That said, Connacht’s selection policy last Saturday in Lyon – not starting Bundee Aki, removing Jack Carty etc – was puzzling, and they now must beat Bristol and the returning Pat Lam and AJ MacGinty with a bonus point on Friday night to keep their season alive on two fronts.
It will be interesting to see if the weekend’s action will affect the composition of the Irish squad when it is announced circa 2pm on Wednesday. Andy Farrell opted for a 37-man squad for last season’s Grand Slam campaign and if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
Save for the return of Ciaran Frawley from injury, the ensuing 33-man squad for the World Cup was drawn entirely from the Six Nations squad. Barring injuries and retirements, this one is liable to be quite similar in composition too.
For example, in the absence of Rob Herring, Tom Stewart (who was part of the World Cup training squad and made his debut in the warm-up game against Samoa) will probably be called up. The fit-again Cian Healy will most likely return for the injured David Kilcoyne. In addition to the five backrowers at the World Cup, Cian Prendergast will likely return, and Gavin Coombes deserves to, while the form of Tom Ahern and John Hodnett merits call-ups.
The biggest change will be among the outside backs given the retirement of Keith Earls and injuries to Mack Hansen and Jimmy O’Brien, as well as Jamie Osborne. Calvin Nash, Jacob Stockdale and Jordan Larmour should thus all make the cut, with Tommy O’Brien and Shane Daly also in the mix.
Intriguingly, on both form, and pedigree, one of the two best fullbacks in the country currently is Simon Zebo. Hmmm.
Regarding the captaincy, Garry Ringrose, Caelan Doris and James Ryan all have their merits, but Peter O’Mahony might be seen as a safer pair of hands.
Possible Irish Six Nations squad:
Hookers: Kelleher, Sheehan, Stewart. Props: Healy, Loughman, Porter, Bealham, Furlong, O’Toole. Locks _ Beirne, Henderson, McCarthy, Ryan. Backrowers: Ahern, Baird, Conan, Coombes, Doris, O’Mahony, Prendergast, Van der Flier.
Scrumhalves: Casey, Gibson-Park, Murray.
Outhalves: Crowley, Frawley, Ross or Harry Byrne.
Centres: Aki, Henshaw, McCloskey, Ringrose.
Outside backs: Keenan, Larmour, Lowe, Nash, Stockdale, T O’Brien.
