If the postmatch statistical narrative following Ireland’s World Cup win over South Africa was that Andy Farrell’s side got away with one, the complete opposite was true on Saturday night vs Scotland.
Every data point that Ireland would have wanted to improve over the two headline games of the pool now makes for better reading. Ireland’s average ruck speed dropped from 4.83 seconds per breakdown vs the ‘Boks to 3.17 against Scotland. A perfect lineout return of 100 per cent also reads much better than the 67 per cent figure from a fortnight ago.
With the pillars of their attacking game returned, Ireland flourished with ball in hand, making 448 total metres, compared to 226 vs South Africa. Interestingly, Ireland only made one more clean break (five vs four) on Saturday while they beat fewer defenders (15 vs 19) than against South Africa.
All of which is to say, if the South Africa match was defined by quantity of ball, by more possession and territory, the Scotland win saw an attacking efficiency unmatched even during the drubbings of Romania and Tonga.
Of Ireland’s attacks, 83 per cent ended with a positive outcome, defined as a possession that doesn’t end with an error or turnover. Their average figure before this game was 67 per cent, while the eight turnovers conceded is the fewest of any of Ireland’s games, and significantly lower than their average of just under 15 per game.
Ireland also had fewer entries into Scotland’s 22 but scored four points per entry, three whole points more per visit than against South Africa.
The above all occurred in a game where Ireland saw less of the ball (48 per cent possession compared to 50 per cent vs South Africa) and kicked more than previously in the competition (65 per cent vs a previous average of 48 per cent).
Ireland opted for a more pragmatic game plan that led to a more efficient performance, a potential blueprint for the knock-out clashes to come.
Unsustainable Argentina
Are Argentina sneaking up on everybody? Watching their joyous fans during their thrilling 39-27 win over Japan on Sunday, a result that saw them qualify to meet Wales in the quarter-finals, it’s hard not to get swept up in it all. Football watchers will no doubt draw comparisons to the wave of fan positivity that dragged Argentina on to World Cup glory in Qatar less than 12 months ago.
Back in rugby, since their poor defeat to England to start the competition, Argentina have won their last three Tests, the longest run since they won four-in-a-row in the 2015 World Cup, including a quarter-final victory over Ireland.
Are Argentina on the crest of the wave or just doing enough against substandard opposition? It’s difficult to take much from a narrow win over Samoa and a thumping of Chile. Against Japan, Argentina looked second best throughout yet came out on top thanks to number of magic scores.
Per Opta, Michael Cheika’s side vastly outperformed their expected points (XP), ending up with 39 when their XP was only 22.6. Opta’s modelling had Japan as the marginally better side with 24.9 XP. Elsewhere on the numbers board, Argentina made a mammoth 350 post contact metres and scored an equally high six points per entry into Japan’s 22.
Added up, this suggests that Argentina lacked control but had enough individual brilliance in a frantic game that broke open late. Argentina are thrilling to watch, but look likely to come unstuck against a more compact, better organised side.
AIL round-up: Railway roll on
Rhiann Heery’s hat-trick was the highlight of the weekend in the women’s AIL as her Railway outfit continued their perfect start to the season with a bonus-point win away to Galwegians. Heery was joined by Ailsa Hughes (two) in crossing the whitewash on more than one occasion as the Sandymount outfit ran out 63-5 winners, leaving them with 15 points after three matches.
Joining Railway on 15 points, but second on points difference, are UL Bohs who secured a third consecutive bonus-point win of their own away to Suttonians. Abbie Salter-Townshend led the way with two tries for the Limerick side in their 38-3 win up in Dublin.
In the other two ties of round three, Blackrock secured a bonus-point win of their own over Wicklow, Beth Creggan adding to the lengthy list of players who notched multiple tries. Blackrock have 10 points from their two outings so far with a game in hand on the top two.
Ballincollig completed the quarter of bonus-point victories with a 24-12 win away over Cooke.
Meanwhile the women’s international side will not see their upcoming WXV matches televised in Ireland. Next Friday, Ireland start their campaign against Kazakhstan in Dubai but Irish fans will have to stream the matches on RugbyPass with no Irish organisation included on World Rugby’s list of broadcasters.
Ireland are in the lowest tier of the competition, WXV3, alongside Spain, Fiji, Kenya, Colombia and Kazakhstan.
Quote
“Maybe the referees need more time with our guys. Do referees have an unconscious bias?” – Samoa head coach Seilala Mapusua after his side fell agonisingly short of a famous victory over England. In the 18-17 defeat, Samoa conceded 14 penalties to England’s nine. The loss was also the eight consecutive World Cup game a Samoan player has been brandished a yellow card.
Number: 1
A fortnight of firsts for Stuart McCloskey. Last week, he flew home from France for the birth of his first child, Kasper. Ten days later, he made his Rugby World Cup debut in the win over Scotland. Kasper was on hand to celebrate post-match with his father after taking in his first rugby match.
