Six Nations: Ireland v France,
Aviva Stadium,
Saturday, 2.15pm — Live RTÉ 2 and ITV
It’s always tempting to overhype the next big game, but how do you play down this one? Okay, in the greater scheme of things, it’s not bigger than Ireland’s Test series decider in Dunedin last July. Yet it’s hard to think of Ireland having a more significant Six Nations game since clinching the Grand Slam in Twickenham five years ago.
Ireland have won 18 of their last 20 Tests and victory on Saturday would establish an all-time record of 13 successive home wins. Fabien Galthié's side have won a French record of 14 Tests in a row. In this potentially momentous meeting of the world’s top two sides something, as they say, has to give.
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Last year’s round two meeting on a raucous evening in the Stade de France smelt and felt like a Grand Slam decider and duly panned out that way. Certainly, whoever emerges triumphant today will be odds-on favourites to lift the Six Nations title and, for Ireland, potentially a tilt at a Grand Slam too on St Patrick’s weekend against England at the Aviva in Johnny Sexton’s last Six Nations game. None of Ireland’s three previous Grand Slams have been sealed in Dublin, and the last time Ireland clinched the title at home was in 1982.
Les Bleus are attempting back-to-back Grand Slams for the first time since the French vintage of 1997 and 1998. So, the immediate prize could be huge in its own right, but then there’s the longer-term impact.
In their evolution under Galthié, Les Bleus arguably needed a first title, and a first Grand Chelem since 2010, more last year. In Ireland’s development under Andy Farrell, having beaten the southern hemisphere big four along with the home unions and Italy, beating France is the one box that needs ticking after three defeats.
Should the two sides meet in the quarter-finals (or, whisper it very quietly, the final) of the World Cup later this year, either Les Bleus will have won all four meetings in this cycle or Ireland will have won the most recent clash, and would have more belief heading to the World Cup in France.
Alternatively, defeat would interrupt momentum and could sew a seed of doubt.
France are missing a few established front liners, but that has been countered by the rash of soft tissue injuries which have ruled out Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong and Jamison Gibson-Park.
Had Conor Murray not been available at the end of a distressing week for him and his family, then Ireland might have been a little too weakened. But the continuation of his partnership with Sexton for a 67th Test start together is reassuring. Murray is also one of five Munster players who extended a Toulouse side featuring seven of today’s French squad.
Last Sunday in Rome, not untypically, France established what seemed like a commanding lead through their defence and a couple of sweetly executed cross-kicks by Romain Ntamack before falling behind prompted their best strike move off a strong maul and Matthieu Jailbert’s neat finish from Romain Taofifuena’s offload.
In truth, this French team don’t play too much from their own half. They kicked out of hand the most of any team in last season’s championship. Their defensive line speed, jackalling and counter-rucking nullified much of Ireland’s attack last year, and their tries often emanate from that defensive weapon and the individualism of players such as Antoine Dupont, Ntamack, the brilliant Damian Penaud and, if needed, the game-breaking Jalibert,
Ireland have their X-factor too, not least in James Lowe’s carrying and offloading, but rely on more sustained, and often relentless, attacking waves off lightning quick ball. This Irish team passed the most, and led the way in most attacking metrics, in last season’s championship and, by contrast, rediscovered their attacking fluency and their penchant for fast starts last week.
With the ball-carrying and footwork of Caelan Doris and company up front, and their elusive backs, Ireland looked more cohesive, and fresher, with more individuals in form, than France a week ago. But, akin to last year, the French coaching staff placed a huge emphasis on physical conditioning in their two weeks before playing Italy, whereas they had a light week in Rome.
Shaun Edwards will have dissected the 18 penalties in the Stadio Olimpico, as will Ireland after conceding an unusually high tally of 13 in Cardiff.
Ireland will also be mindful of Angus Gardner’s 10-7 penalty count against them in Paris last year, when scoring three tries to two was undone by Melvyn Jaminet kicking six penalties out of six.
Last weekend’s opening round was blissfully free of red cards, and hopefully this game will maintain that trend, but Wayne Barnes will invariably be a key figure, not least at scrum time. John Fogarty highlighted the need for space between the French bind, presumably with the 6ft 5½in Uini Atonio in mind, and that they are not loading on Andrew Porter.
The Irish scrum coach also said Farrell has pointed out that 11 of last weekend’s 18 tries emanated from penalties.
And then there’s the possibility of a quick start, ie Dupont’s second-minute try last year, or Ireland scoring the opening try inside the first six minutes in all three Tests in New Zealand and again last week. Whatever happened to sides “feeling each other out”?
Most likely though, much of the post-match statistics will point to an even, if fluctuating contest — between the 22s at any rate — and will be swayed by key moments. The key may be the speed of Ireland’s recycling, and they’ll have to work ferociously to generate that quick ball on which they thrive.
Ireland won nearly all the key moments last week. They will not win all of them against France, but with the home crowd a potential factor, they might just win enough of them.
IRELAND (v France): Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Johnny Sexton (Leinster, capt), Conor Murray (Munster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Rob Herring (Ulster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); Tadhg Beirne (Munster), James Ryan (Leinster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), David Kilcoyne (Munster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster), Ross Byrne (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).
FRANCE: Thomas Ramos (Toulouse); Damian Penaud (Clermont), Gaël Fickou (Racing 92), Yoram Moefana (Bordeaux-Bègles), Ethan Dumortier (Lyon); Romain Ntamack (Toulouse), Antoine Dupont (Toulouse); Cyril Baille (Toulouse), Julien Marchand (Toulouse), Uini Atonio (La Rochelle); Thibaud Flament (Toulouse), Paul Willemse (Montpellier); Anthony Jelonch (Toulouse), Charles Ollivon (Toulon), Grégory Alldritt (La Rochelle).
Replacements: Gaëtan Barlot (Castres), Reda Wardi (La Rochelle), Sipili Falatea (Bordeaux-Bègles), Romain Taofifuena (Lyon), François Cros (Toulouse), Sekou Macalou (Stade Francais), Baptiste Couilloud (Lyon), Matthieu Jalibert (Bordeaux-Bègles).
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Jordan Way (Australia), Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand).
Overall head-to-head: Played 101, Ireland 35 wins, France 59 wins, 7 draws.
Last five meetings: (2018 6N) France 13, Ireland 15. (2019 6N) Ireland 26, France 14. (2020 6N) France 35, Ireland 27. (2021 6N) Ireland 13, France 15. (2022 6N) France 30, Ireland 24.
Five-game formguide: Ireland W 32-22 v New Zealand (a); W 19-16 v South Africa (h); 35-17 v Fiji (h); W 13-10 v Australia (h); W 34-10 v Wales (a).
Betting (Paddy Power): 4-9 Ireland, 25-1 Draw, 15-8 France. Handicap betting (France +4 pts) 10-11 Ireland, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 France.
