Two years ago the evidence that Rough Quest would win the Martell Grand National practically screamed off the page. A Gold Cup runner-up carrying just 10st 7lb? If he jumped around he was a formbook certainty and so it proved. This time it may not be a full throated scream but it's possible to give a reasonably robust roar that Rough Quest can do it again.

Of course it's never quite that easy. Even when he won the world's most famous steeplechase there were niggling doubts that Rough Quest might have been feeling the effects of a hard race in the Gold Cup a fortnight earlier or that his well known muscle enzyme problem could cause him to tie up under pressure. Neither occured.

Now there are different niggles. History for one. Since the first National in 1839, only Manifesto in 1897 and 1899 and Red Rum in 1975 and 1977 have regained the Grand National title. Another statistic is that only 10 favourites have won this century and only four horses have won at the veteran age of 12 in the last 20 years.

Statistics can be changed though and Rough Quest looks to have so much going for him. One is the confidence of his Irish-born connections. Mick Fitzgerald connected with a totally new audience when claiming in 1996 that the 10 minutes of winning the Grand National was better than sex.

Reminded of it yesterday, the genial Wexford man grinned: "I'd better do some homework on finding something new!"

Fitzgerald is one of the great big race riders, however, and his belief in Rough Quest is infectious, despite the Terry Casey-trained gelding's fall at the 17th fence in the Gold Cup.

"Everything is right. The soft ground won't hinder him, he has a nice weight with Suny Bay staying in and he's in fantastic form. I've schooled him since Cheltenham, where he just lost concentration, and he was very cute. You wouldn't know he had fallen and I think at the least he'd have been placed in the Gold Cup," Fitzgerald added.

The mention of Suny Bay is significant as the presence of last year's runner-up has meant only eight of the 39 runners are in the handicap proper. It also emphasises the comparative lack of horses who appear to have the ideal Grand National combination of jumping ability, stamina but also that crucial touch of class for the finish.

Dun Belle, the highest rated of the Irish pair, is only 2lb out of the handicap compared to Gimme Five's long handicap mark of 9-3. Pat Fahy's mare looks the best chance of a first Irish win in 23 years, especially judged on her second to Dorans Pride in the Hennessy at Leopardstown, but victory may actually elude Dun Belle.

The forecast soft ground will mean that this will be a stamina sapping Grand National not guaranteed to suit everyone. Mudahim would have been many people's idea of a strong outsider but in his absence Jenny Pitman's Nahthen Lad, ninth last year, will be fancied to go well.

Then there are comparative rogues like Challenger Du Luc and Him Of Praise whose connections are relying on Aintree's unique atmosphere to inspire them. Suny Bay is the class horse but that's reflected in the strength-sapping 12st he has to carry.

Richard Dunwoody's marvellous record in winning twice from his 12 rides and being four times placed means that Samlee will have his supporters but of the outsiders, St Mellion Fairway looks attractive at odds of 66 to 1.

This will be the first time that the former top novice has had his vital soft ground all season and considering he was once quoted in the Gold Cup ante-post markets, he has a latent touch of class. The jockey of the moment Andrew Thornton is a late switch to his back and if taking to the unique fences, St Mellion Fairway should go well.

However, on this ground, off a reasonable handicap mark, and coming to a peak at the perfect time the previous Aintree experience of Rough Quest makes him hard to get away from. Hopefully come 4.00, Mick Fitzgerald will have unveiled his latest bon mot in celebration.