THE turning point in the often muddled Jack Charlton succession stakes appeared to come as they entered the final straight: Thursday's second round of interviews. Joe Kinnear, the proven form horse, if never the favourite, withdrew, leaving Mick McCarthy ahead of Kevin Moran and Dave Bassett as they neared the finishing tape. Any day now, he should break the tape.

The only possible banana skin is McCarthy not approving of the FAI's nominations for a full-time, Irish-based manager of the under-16 and 18 sides, and a full-time, English-based manager of the under-21s. In the latter category, the likes of Steve Heighway, Chris Hughton and Dave O'Leary have been mooted. The notion of O'Leary teaming up with McCarthy is an amusing variation of the "dream ticket". McCarthy would get to choose his own part- time assistant.

Presuming McCarthy has or will give his imprimatur to the above, then it is expected that the selection sub-committee will agree to nominate the Millwall manager for the vacancy at their next scheduled meeting on Monday morning. Meetings of both the FAI executive council and the full FAI council will then be called to ratify their recommendation.

Finally, an undisputed favourite has emerged where it matters within the FAI's six-man sub-committee, charged with the task of recommending Charlton's successor. Heretofore, favouritism has ebbed and flowed, often depending on media guess-work.

As it was, the appointment of six people to sub-committee was too much - even though two didn't attend the first interviews and one didn't attend either. It probably contributed to the muddled perception of the selection process.

That the information lines have frequently criss-crossed happened in part because the race was never the fait accompli that was suggested. To begin with, the six-man sub-committee (Louis Kilcoyne, Joe Delaney, Des Casey, Mick Hyland, Pat Quigley and Finbarr Flood) have never been able to look around the table and know each other's preferred choice. Only in the wake of Kinnear's withdrawal has it become clear.

At various stages, gambles on the likes of Kenny Dalglish (curiously, still being touted by one apparently informed commentator as late as yesterday) and Alex Ferguson appear to have failed. Likewise, gambles on long shot Johan Cruyff, and dark horses, Bassett and Moran.

The latter pair did emerge as genuine dark horses. Bassett made a big impression during the first round of interviews at the Marriott Hotel, in London, a week and a half ago. The unseemly free-for-all there, and presence of TV cameras, prompted some of the candidates to seek a mite more discretion for the second round of interviews.

Moran managed to skip that first round, and he was still a strong contender when he followed Bassett into the interview room on Thursday ahead of McCarthy. The numbers went against him when Kinnear pulled out.

At least one of the more senior powerbrokers had been seeking to string the process out in the desperate hope of procuring Kenny Dalglish. Enthusiasm for the final short-list never seems to have been undiluted, yet all the while Kinnear was never really appreciated for the outstanding candidate that he was.

Kinnear's formguide was probably the best. He looked the pick of the field and, as the only bona fide candidate proving himself in the Premiership, he probably had the best credentials. But he was always at a disadvantage in that the majority of the FAI powerbrokers and the media didn't know him. With the exception of Louis Kilcoyne, and perhaps Joe Delaney, he'd never even met the remainder of his interlocutors before these last two weeks.

All they had to go on were memories of Kinnear as Eamon Dunphy's roommate (preposterously, it was even suggested to this reporter that Dunphy's espousal of Kinnear would have worked against him). There was also an impression of him as an anti-establishment prankster, who left eggs on plane seats for unamused administrators and journalists to sit on. As regards his independence, you would have thought it was a virtue, but never mind.

There were vague notions of Kinnear maintaining a crudely abrasive, long-ball game at Wimbledon, and more genuine worries about his disciplinary record with referees.

His achievements in taking Wimbledon from 21st in the Premiership to 12th in his first half-season at the club, to sixth two seasons ago, and then to ninth, were somewhat overlooked. The achievement, against all financial odds, two seasons ago earned him the managers' Manager of the Year award. He received the award from Alex Ferguson, who had guided Manchester United to the double that same season. Pound for pound, the achievement was about on a par.

Kinnear did this while cultivating a more rounded, footballing style at Wimbledon. He also regularly took on the Premiership's best managers with some notable tactical successes. Blackburn were overcome 4-1 with an orthodox 4-4-2 formation one week, two home games later champions-elect United were beaten 1-0 when Kinnear played five across the middle. In between, Swindon were devoured 5-2 when Kinnear countered their sweeper system by playing three up front and two wide players pushing on to stop them building from the back.

Despite an horrendous run of injuries and 13 games without a win this season, Kinnear countered Newcastle's three-man, central defence with three out-and-out strikers to such unsettling effect that the runaway Premiership leaders were grateful to escape with a 3-3 draw. They have since turned their season around.

Yet, the theory that "Wimbledon had gone backwards this season" was put forth to discredit his candidature. The decline of Millwall and the fact that the remainder of the field weren't currently in management, let alone in a Premiership job, was ignored.

Although Kinnear declared his desire for the job when it became vacant, it wasn't until about three weeks ago that he was contacted. There's little doubt that Dalglish and Ferguson had been sounded out in the interim.

Had Kinnear's candidature been greeted with more enthusiasm from an early stage, it's possible that he might not have taken Thursday's course of action. Though he might still have won the race, he is streetwise enough to have sensed the lukewarm mood toward him. He may even have been tipped off.

Kinnear's credentials as one of the foremost coaches in the Premiership were always appreciated more across the channel than in his native country. It is possible that he will be offered one of the big clubs before the start of next season, the likeliest scenario being that Gerry Francis will eventually be persuaded to take the English job, and Alan Sugar will then turn to the former Tottenham man.

Despite making his views known shortly after Thursday's interview began at 4.0, Kinnear and the delegation talked until 6.30. "I told them more or less the first time, and they rang me a few times asking me to come along to the meeting," Kinnear said yesterday.

"I told them I wanted the job, don't get me wrong. I said I'm the right man for the job, but this was the wrong time." Joe has never been lacking in self-belief. "Give me four years. I said, and please accept my apologies. There's no job that I ultimately want more. I would have picked the phone up, but I wanted to come and speak to them personally."

He still sounded a little heavy-hearted about it all. "There's nothing more in my life that I want to do than be manager of my country. But I really want to give myself another four years in the Premiership. I want to have a go at European titles, this that and the other, and who knows where we're going to end up at Wimbledon.

"There's loads of ambitions and dreams left that I want to fulfil first and I might be a better manager for it," he said. "To be honest, in four years time I'll be that much more experienced and I'll certainly consider it then. I just said please leave the door ajar for me.

By all accounts, it was, with Kinnear agreeing to oversee coaching seminars and lend assistance at international level if required. The notion that Kinnear is carefully avoiding the poisoned chalice of following Charlton, in preference for a more favourable appointment in the future, can be dispelled.

"It's a tough one, but it's something that I've never been in fear of. It may sound arrogant, but I said that at the meeting. It's not a case of me being worried about following Jack. We all have our different ideas and our own ideas of how the game should be played.

Unfortunately, it might be one I live to regret, to be frank with you. Nothing is sure in life, and it's something I'm already finding hard to live with, to be honest. It's something that I passionately want. I've willed myself that I can get it one day. Now, when other things are happening around me, it's turned up, and I don't want to walk out on the opportunities of other things. Whenever the post comes up again, then I'll turn my head towards Ireland as the only dream left in my life, the only ambition that I want."