Munster can win in Wales

RUGBY ANALYST: ‘GEE, THEY look pretty mad,” police officer Lou observes of the police attack dogs to chief Wiggum

RUGBY ANALYST:'GEE, THEY look pretty mad," police officer Lou observes of the police attack dogs to chief Wiggum. "Yeah, I've been starving them, teasing them, singing off key . . ." replies Springfield's finest before releasing the dogs. As expected they savage him.

Someone said that if it happened in Tom Clifford Park Jonathan Thomas would have been yellow-carded. Someone else said that it was because of Tom Clifford Park that Paul O’Connell was red-carded. Either way I can understand why he reacted as he did. Players of all codes will react in many ways to the annoying provocation that occurs every minute of every game.

As French referee Christophe Berdos was coming down hard on O’Connell I tracked Alan Quinlan as he persisted, most annoyingly, in holding Mike Phillips’ shorts, look for the referee, then letting go . . . and then holding them once again. What could be more annoying than Quinlan’s hand in your shorts? Being submerged by Donncha O’Callaghan I suppose. Phillips soaked it up, O’Connell unfortunately didn’t.

I remember some years back an Irish player, who’ll remain anonymous, reacting in Parc des Princes. Ireland had just conceded another try and as the French player sat on the ground readying for celebration along came the “Claw” and stood on his hand as the French player was getting up. Beautiful!

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Philip Matthews famously waited 12 months to deck his English opponent after some inappropriate behaviour. Roy Keane was prepared to wait a tad longer for his chance. O’Connell arrived back into Thomond Park, his natural home with his people expectant.

He spent far too long on the sideline as the East Stand built in anticipation before being launched. Clearly a player of his calibre was conscious of his value, his time out of the game, his need to play and that the score stood 13-13. The Ospreys must be dispatched. Meanwhile Quinlan and O’Callaghan were dragging out of Phillips.

The lazy conclusion is O’Connell reacted and Phillips didn’t. However, both reacted; one in swinging an arm; the second in changing his game plan. Both ultimately affected the outcome of the match and this lesson is key for Munster tomorrow. Munster defeated an initially resilient Ospreys, but far inferior side than themselves. In doing so, like their away bonus point in London Irish, not gaining the full five points was an opportunity lost.

Phillips continues to intrigue me with his physique and athleticism and this is his Achilles heel. He loves contact and the more Quinlan and co encourage him tomorrow the more he may keep his aggression in check but he will certainly up the contact. This has a huge negative affect on his key talisman in midfield James Hook. On Sunday’s performance Hook was almost ineffectual and those outside him less so. Hook has been a barometer for Welsh rugby. It was an extraordinary Ospreys performance in making Munster work but failing to inject any degree of pace, urgency and class into proceedings. With the exception of Marty Holah none impressed.

I was shocked to see Jerry Collins hauled ashore to cover the prop Paul James’ sin bin. Clearly All Black Collins is not valuable enough for 80 minutes. Opposite him was my man of the match, James Coughlan. We’ll all remember his 35th minute covering for the Tommy Bowe foot rush and certain try. That was obvious but his kick chases trailing for up to 50 metres at a time are less so. He is well worth a close look. He carries the ball very intelligently, knowing when to power through contact and when to offload. Contrast him to Collins’ work rate and influence.

The Ospreys look a shadow of their performance in the RDS when winning the Magners League. Hence, regardless of O’Connell’s devastating absence, Munster can win this match in Wales. I expect Ospreys to continue varying their play where last week nearly all their lineouts were short. This afforded Collins the freedom of the back line, which rarely amounted to much. He did manage an easy slip past Keith Earls. They did, however, stack in different pods which can be confusing.

Interestingly Hook swapped with his number 10, Dan Biggar, from short lineouts. This forced the Munster defence to sweat a while before heading out onto Collins. On most occasions Hook led the line with options inside and out and the Ospreys elected for where Munster were weakest. But without any pace, hard running and invention they are unlikely to trouble the Munster line. They may then elect to punch holes at the breakdown primarily through Phillips as they did successfully in Thomond Park, but lack the penetration out wide to maximise the yards gained.

In order to completely nullify the Ospreys backs, Munster must do a Chief Wiggum on Phillips, who will react by carrying the ball into contact which will be right up Munster’s alley.

Without doubt the tie of last weekend took place between Perpignan and Leicester. Perpignan’s fullback Jerome Porical was sensational and any player failing to grab the essentials of free-flowing counter-attack between backs and forwards should look back at his 50th-minute try. In particular the ever improving Damien Varley, who despite his progress continues to ignore his periphery.

He was excellent last week, especially around contact, but finds himself too often in open space with his only instinct to get back into contact. Munster have many ball carriers in the side and Varley must know where they are at all times. If he can add this to his game he will be a match for anyone.

Meanwhile, Leinster entertain Clermont Auvergne and this is trouble brewing. After a wonderful team performance of true grit they have been left without a team. There has been injury after injury in Leinster but precious mention of Seán O’Brien’s wobbling about the pitch after a ball carry. Will he start tomorrow and if so was this a thigh injury that had him wobbling or something worse?

It should be a cracking occasion in the Aviva Stadium tomorrow but Clermont can do damage. Bath to struggle against Ulster but Munster have a great chance to oust the Ospreys.

liamtoland@yahoo.com

Liam Toland

Liam Toland

Liam Toland, a contributor to The Irish Times, is a rugby analyst