ATHLETICS: Nothing is ever certain when it comes to marathon running, especially when trying to cover the 26.2 miles as fast as the human body will allow. But it is practically certain that an Irish athlete won't be first to cross the finish line of the Dublin marathon this morning.

When the late Noel Carroll had the foresight to bring the grand marathon tradition to Dublin it was always a vision of mass participation, rather than an elite competitive event.

Yet the days of Irish interest at the very front of the race appear to be over. Of the 23 winners of the men's race, 11 have been Irish - but the last of those was John Treacy back in 1993.

With today's race doubling as the national championship, the relatively poor state of Irish marathon running will be even more noticeable - especially in the context of the days when Irish athletes dominated the race.

Two-time winner Jerry Kiernan still has the honour of holding the course record of two hours, 13 minutes 45 seconds set in 1982 - the year that also produced what is still the record entry of 11,076. Even the best African entries of recent years have failed to improve on that time.

"There's no question that Irish marathon running is at an all-time low at the moment," says Kiernan. "In my day you had the likes of myself, Dick Hooper, Neil Cusack, and just before that Danny McDaid. Then of course you had John Treacy and the likes of Andy Ronan.

"All of us felt that we could compete with the best, and that if we didn't break 2:14 we'd had a very bad day. Right now Mark Carroll is the only exception to that way of thinking. I would still hold out some hope that Martin McCarthy can run a lot better than the 2:18:45 he ran recently in Berlin, and I think Cathal Lombard can make a good transition further down the road.

"But we had some real quality there 20 years ago. I suppose there was a golden period there for a while, especially for a country of this size, like you can have in any sport. These things can be cyclical, but to be honest I can't see an Irish winner of the Dublin marathon anytime in the immediate future."

Donegal's Gary Crossan goes into the race as defending national champion and top Irish finisher from last year - he clocked 2:20:16 in 10th place.

His commitment to running is total but with a best of 2:19:35 from the Paris marathon last May, he will be mainly concerned with the race-within-a-race for the national title.

In recent years the Dublin organisers have brought in several leading Africans, mostly Kenyans, in their efforts to produce a truly world-class performance - and rightly so.

Seven Kenyan athletes are due to start today and chances are one of them will win. If not, then South Africa's Zacharia Mpolokeng, the winner in 2001, could again collect the €15,000 top prize.

Irish women have fared a little better than the men, with Sonia O'Sullivan the surprise winner three years ago, and Belfast's Teresa Duffy the victor two years before.

Kiernan is not totally surprised by the gradual decline in Irish standards.

"I think the appeal of the marathon has changed. When I dipped my toes into road running it wasn't really because I wanted to, but I found it was good at it and stayed with it. And we did train hard, very hard. But it wasn't just about the training.

"We were all able to run fast over the shorter distances, running well under 30 minutes for 10 kilometres, but that's not the case with the Irish guys running the marathon at the moment.

"Then take a younger athlete today like Robert Connolly, who I coach. He has the European cross-country coming up to think about, and then the world cross-country in March, and then it's into the track season. He's always got something to aim for, so there's no reason to even consider a marathon."

It's hard even to see where the three Irish medals will end up today. Kerry's John Griffin, another two-time winner in the late 1980s, is still a contender for the top Irish finish despite being well past the age of 40. Annette Kealy is making her debut and yet should claim the women's national title.

What is certain then is that if Kiernan's course record does fall, it will be to a foreign runner.

The fastest man in the race, incidentally, will be Steve Jones of Wales, the former world record holder (2:07:13, run in 1985) who is currently on holiday in Ireland and has decided to run - purely for fun.

Kiernan, however, would have no problem seeing his record go overseas: "You can't blame the organisers for bringing in a dozen Kenyans. If they weren't there the race would be bereft of any quality. So I don't see how they could try and go with an all-Irish elite field.

"But my record was run on a completely different course, and if I was to be honest it was probably more difficult. The first half went all the way up to Finglas, and I remember passing halfway in 64:09, thinking I could repeat down to the finish and break 2:10.

"But my legs completely went over the last three miles. And I'd say my last mile took around eight minutes - I was practically crawling. But I suppose I still got there."