The absence of Shane Horgan from Leinster's afternoon training session on the back pitch at Lansdowne Road is not irrefutable proof that he'll miss the Heineken European Cup quarter-final against Biarritz but it reinforces the suggestion that he will do so.
Coach Matt Williams won't condemn him to 'civvies' just yet but there wouldn't be a bookmaker in the country that'd lay odds on him trotting out for Saturday's match. The torn quadricep is proving a stubborn adversary and one that seems set to win that personal duel. In his absence David Quinlan assumed the inside centre responsibilities.
Williams also hasn't ruled out the possibility of captain Reggie Corrigan making the starting line-up but his name on the team-sheet would constitute an even greater shock than that of Horgan's.
The Leinster prop has made excellent progress since having the cast removed from his broken forearm, the movement completely restored but the muscle wastage in his six-week enforced absence should prove too great a risk to perpetuate. Emmet Byrne at loosehead with Peter Coyle on the other side of the scrum is the accepted wisdom.
Williams suggested: "He's improving that much we'll give him every opportunity. It'll end up that it will be with the doctors but we'll leave that until Friday. We're training without him and if he comes through it'd be a huge bonus." Denis Hickie received a knock on the calf in Ireland's final Six Nations game against England and didn't take any part but his absence was purely precautionary, while Keith Gleeson was more of an occasional participant.
A Leinster team may not be announced until a couple of hours before kick-off although a squad could be released tomorrow. One area that has inspired a little debate outside the camp is who will be handed the starting role at outhalf, although the coach isn't a subscriber to that strain of conversation.
Nathan Spooner was Leinster's first choice outhalf but injury has decimated his season and while he has been on the sidelines, Christian Warner has proved an able deputy. Williams enthused: "Christian Warner is hugely underrated by everyone but us. I think he has done a superb job this year. Christian has done everything that's been asked of him. Nathan only played a few games. He's had one game against Wasps in which he's finished the match.
"We're very lucky to have someone of his calibre available and he (Spooner) went very well in training today." The perception that Leinster are the hottest of favourites and should comfortably eclipse the challenge of Biarritz is something against which Williams rails. "I've heard all this talk that we're red hot favourites and all that.
"You have to live with that but I don't . . . if someone can explain it logically on a piece of paper why we're going to beat this team by a big score then I'd be delighted. I can't see it. They won the French league last year and are leading it again this year."
It's a stance echoed by Irish captain and Leinster centre Brian O'Driscoll. "We know exactly how tough it's going to be," before recalling the Irish province's European Cup defeat away to Biarritz a couple of seasons ago. "We were very much bullied off the park in France that day. "They kept the ball tight and didn't let us play; granted the conditions weren't ideal for running rugby. It should be a touch different on Saturday."
