Golf

Five biggest threats to Rory McIlroy winning the US PGA Championship

World number one Scottie Scheffler is always a threat, as is in-form Justin Thomas

Joaquin Niemann of LIV Golf. Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty
Joaquin Niemann of LIV Golf. Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty
Philip Reid
Sun May 11 2025 - 06:00

Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler after winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 in Texas on May 4th. Photograph: Sam Hodde/Getty Images
Scottie Scheffler after winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 in Texas on May 4th. Photograph: Sam Hodde/Getty Images

He’s back, if he ever truly went away. Scheffler’s wait for a first win of the season came in rather spectacular style at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson where he had 12 shots to spare over Erik Van Rooyen in shooting a 31-under-par total of 253, which equalled the low 72-holes total on the PGA Tour. Scheffler had a slow start to the year after suffering a hand injury over the Christmas period but the world number one has fully recovered and will be McIlroy’s main challenger. Odds: 9/2

Joaquin Niemann

The Chilean has been the standout player on the LIV Golf circuit this season with three wins (in Adelaide, Singapore and Mexico). Niemann’s two career wins on the PGA Tour (the Greenbrier in 2019 and the Genesis in 2022) came before his move to LIV. His form in the majors – no top-10s in 23 appearances (with a best finish of tied-16th in the 2023 Masters) – is at odds with his undoubted talent. His form suggests he is ready to finally contend. Odds: 28/1

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Justin Rose

Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy shake hands after the first playoff hole during the final round of the 2025 Masters in Augusta, Georgia on April 13th. Photograph: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images
Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy shake hands after the first playoff hole during the final round of the 2025 Masters in Augusta, Georgia on April 13th. Photograph: Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

Ageing like a fine wine, the Englishman – with one career Major title, the US Open back in 2013 – has contended strongly in each of the last two Majors: he was runner-up to Xander Schauffele in last year’s Open at Troon and lost out to Rory McIlroy in a playoff at the Masters. Started the year ranked 55th in the world and has moved up to 14th on the back of good form. Odds: 55/1

Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa. Photograph: Emilee Chinn/Getty
Collin Morikawa. Photograph: Emilee Chinn/Getty

The two-time Major champion – US PGA in 2020 and The Open in 2021 – hasn’t won since the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour since the Zozo Championship at the tailend of 2023 but has posted two runner-up finishes so far this season. He has recently changed caddie to tour veteran Joe Greiner. Odds: 20/1

Justin Thomas

Two-time PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas. Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA Wire
Two-time PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas. Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA Wire

Back to the scene of his great win in the 2017 US PGA Championship, Thomas has hit a rich vein of form. He hasn’t missed a cut all year and his impressive win in the RBC Heritage gave him his fifth top-10 finish in 10 tournaments this season. Odds: 20/1

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Philip Reid

Philip Reid

Philip Reid is Golf Correspondent of The Irish Times