It is remembered as the day of Dublin’s startled earwigs but Kerry caught all of the remaining contenders by surprise with their performance in the 2009 All-Ireland quarter-final.
Kerry arrived to the last eight of the competition that August with more questions hanging over them than you’d expect to find on a TV quizshow. They had stumbled to the quarter-finals after narrow, uninspiring, wins over Longford, Sligo and Antrim.
I had been called up to the Dublin squad a few weeks earlier and though I didn’t get any game time during that championship, I was on the bench for that quarter-final against Kerry.
We entered the game as favourites, but Kerry had other ideas. They arrived to Croke Park like a team possessed and they humiliated us. At the final whistle we were left to pick through the wreckage of a 1-24 to 1-7 defeat. Kerry went on to win the All-Ireland.
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I was reminded of that game again during the week when considering Sunday’s quarter-final between Kerry and Armagh, because once again there are doubts hanging over the Kingdom’s footballers at this stage of the All-Ireland senior football championship.
There is of course a possibility Kerry will arrive to Croke Park this weekend and take their frustration out on Armagh just as they did on us 16 years ago.
However, the big difference between then and now is the calibre of players n the Kerry squad. This current group is being judged against Kerry teams of old.
There is a belief in Kerry that they should be challenging for All-Irelands every year and because of that the players are rated by tradition more than quality.
The core problem for Kerry is that they don’t have enough players operating at the very highest level.
In David Clifford they boast one of the greatest players to ever grace the game but the reality is that since 2015 Kerry have won just a single All-Ireland senior title. That’s one Sam Maguire triumph going on 11 years now.
Given the wave of underage success between 2014-2018 when the county won five consecutive All-Ireland minor titles, it has clearly been a barren decade at senior level.
The return from that golden generation of minors has been hugely disappointing. Kerry fans would have hoped that underage success was going to be the platform for a period of dominance at senior level. But it hasn’t played out that way.
How many of the current Kerry players would get on the great Kerry teams of the recent past – those sides with Paul Galvin, Colm Cooper, Declan O’Sullivan, Kieran Donaghy? To be honest, I don’t know if many would.
So, the quality of players at their disposal is a real issue.
But all is not lost.
The intriguing thing about this year’s All-Ireland championship is that there is no outstanding team. It’s very much a level playing field, every outfit has problems.
It’s funny how quickly perspectives can change. Just 12 months ago Kerry entered the All-Ireland semi-final against Armagh as favourites but it would almost be seen as something of a surprise this weekend if the Munster champions pulled off a victory and dumped Armagh out of the championship.
But Kerry’s destiny is still in their own hands.
And Clifford, of course, is their hope-maker.
He’s always hungry to score and he has that killer edge in terms of going for goal, which is invaluable. Most forwards will look to take points but for the likes of Clifford and Con O’Callaghan, their instinct is to go direct towards goal.
You can be sure Armagh will come armed with a plan to try curtail him – but planning for Clifford and executing that plan are two very different challenges.
When everybody is fit Kerry do still have attacking options to support him in the likes of Seán O’Shea, Paudie Clifford and Paul Geaney. But Geaney is 34 and you would have thought there must be some up-and-coming Kerry forward ready to grab a jersey.
Galway have brought through Matthew Thompson this season but Kerry haven’t introduced similar fresh energy.
Still, Armagh must be careful not to concede frees within O’Shea’s considerable range because he is a very dependable weapon for Kerry. Crucially, he has always tended to kick well in Croke Park and after what has been an injury-troubled season O’Shea will be hoping to use this quarter-final as a springboard to finish the campaign on a high.
Paudie Clifford’s fitness will also be important because he is a very intelligent player, almost in the mould of Declan O’Sullivan. He’s also very good at linking the play and creating chances for his team-mates – and you can see David loves playing alongside his brother because it’s all so instinctive.
The contribution of both goalkeepers will also be a key factor in the outcome.
The kick-out stats have changed dramatically with the new rules because teams are now looking to get 50 per cent of the opposition’s restarts. Nobody would even have dared suggest such a return last year, never mind actually succeed in doing it.
Shane Ryan’s long kickouts probably hang in the air a little bit, which would suit Armagh’s big men around the middle, so Kerry must be a little bit more imaginative in terms of trying to win primary possession.
They will need players to present themselves as options for shorter kickouts.
Ethan Rafferty has been incredible this season, not only have his kickouts been on the money, but when he ventures forward the Armagh goalkeeper does so with real purpose and intent. He could cause Kerry real problems on Sunday.
Like so many games over what promises to be a brilliant weekend, this quarter-final is incredibly difficult to call.
If Armagh give up as many scoring chances to Kerry as they did to Dublin, Kieran McGeeney’s side will be punished more severely by a team fighting for their lives than they were by an out of sorts Dublin.
There are several factors going in Armagh’s favour though – midfield superiority, greater mobility and there is also a general feel-good aura around them right now, which is in stark contrast to the cloud of doubt hanging over Kerry.
For Kerry to win everything hinges on David Clifford performing. But there are also a lot of players in that Kerry dressingroom, fellahs who won an All-Ireland back in 2022, who will be somewhat disappointed by how their careers have turned out to date.
For those reasons I expect Kerry to deliver a performance and make a stand against Armagh.
But unlike 2009 I’m not convinced it will be enough.
