This is a week when the canter becomes a gallop, a week when the jockeying for positions gets prickly – a week when most of those at the tail end of Gaelic football’s leading pack try to outrun the Tailteann Cup.
There is a myriad of permutations in terms of how it will all play out – but from within the muddle of possibilities it seems clear that for the Cork footballers in particular this is a weekend of some consequence.
John Cleary’s Rebels are currently sixth in Division Two – joint on four points with Louth – and should the Leesiders finish the league in that position, then their hopes of playing in the All-Ireland SFC would probably rest on how the provincial championships play out.
For all the subterfuge and manoeuvring that is likely to occur in Division One over the next couple of rounds, Division Two and Three will provide plenty of authentic drama.
The bottom four teams in Division Two meet this weekend – Cork v Louth, Down v Westmeath. And it is the same with the top four sides in Division Three – Offaly v Kildare, Laois v Clare.
Defeat will have significant repercussions. The fat is in the fire now.
Given the current standings, a micro league has developed involving the bottom four in Division Two – Louth (4pts), Cork (4pts), Down (2pts), Westmeath (0pts), and the top four in Division Three – Kildare (8pts), Offaly (8pts), Laois (6pts), Clare (6pts).
Cavan (6pts) in Division Two and Fermanagh (5pts) in Division Three could yet also get drawn into the jostling, depending on results.
And while Down will spend the next two weekends battling to avoid relegation, Conor Laverty’s side do have the safety net of a guaranteed spot in the All-Ireland on account of having won last year’s Tailteann Cup. But should the Mourne men push their way to a position of safety in Division Two, that would have a knock-on effect.
In its most straightforward structure, the top 16 teams at the end of the league – including the two sides promoted from Division Three replacing the relegated outfits from Division Two – would contest the All-Ireland SFC.
But the precedence given to the provincial championships in terms of seedings skews the system.
Ultimately, we won’t know for certain until the four provincial finalists are confirmed but it is reasonable to hypothesise, given this year’s provincial draws, that only the top five positions in Division Two could prove to be good enough to qualify for the Sam Maguire competition.
Cork’s task is complicated by the significant hurdle of a potential Munster semi-final meeting with Kerry on April 19th, should the Rebels first overcome Limerick at the quarter-final stages.
If Cork failed to make the Munster final, then their finishing position in the league would determine where they spend the summer.
The same goes for Louth, who must navigate a Leinster quarter-final against Wexford or Laois and then a semi-final against Kildare or Westmeath to progress to their provincial decider. Should Brian Flanagan’s Kildare, for instance, grab a Leinster final spot having not qualified for the All-Ireland via the league, then it would reduce the number of positions available in terms of standings.
It makes Sunday’s Páirc Uí Chaoimh fixture between Cork and Louth one of the most important games of the entire weekend.
And a timely juncture in the season to revisit the constitution of the All-Ireland and Tailteann Cup competitions.
The All-Ireland SFC will be comprised of 16 counties – the eight provincial finalists and the next eight highest-ranked teams at the conclusion of the National League. The previous year’s Tailteann Cup winners are guaranteed a spot and if they are not eligible through their league position then they will replace the lowest ranked of the eight teams that didn’t reach a provincial final.
The Tailteann Cup will contain the 16 lowest ranked teams at the end of the National League – after primacy for the provincial finalists has been considered. Those 16 teams will be placed in four groups of four teams. New York will then enter at the preliminary quarter-final stage.
Ultimately, the provincial championships will spin out the final few teams.
Connacht: This year, it seems unlikely a side from outside the top 16 in the league will qualify for the Connacht final. Mayo or Sligo will face Leitrim in one semi-final with Roscommon or London playing Galway or New York in the other. The most likely eventuality is a Mayo v Galway/Roscommon decider. Of course, should Sligo cause an upset on their side of the draw, that would shake the tree.
Munster: This is where the gut-punch is likely to come for some team. With Clare playing Tipperary or Waterford in one of the Munster semi-finals, it seems a Division Three or Four side will be in the Sam Maguire – though Peter Keane’s Banner are still in the race for league promotion.
Ulster: Take your pick, but from the two semi-final pairings (Armagh/Antrim v Cavan/Tyrone; Down/Fermanagh v Donegal/Derry/Monaghan), it’s probable there will be two teams from the top 16 league positions contesting the provincial decider in Ulster.
Leinster: The landscape here has the potential to produce a kicker. The two semi-finals will be Offaly/Carlow/Meath v Dublin/Wicklow/Longford, and Kildare/Westmeath v Louth/Wexford/Laois. Offaly host Kildare this Sunday in a top of the table Division Three clash but even if they secure promotion, advancing to the Leinster final still looks to be the best chance of either team playing in the All-Ireland SFC this year. In fact, a potential Leinster semi-final between Kildare and Louth on the last weekend of April could yet become a de facto playoff for a place in the Sam Maguire competition.
Before that though, the jockeying for all-important league positions is about to reach the pointy end.
The difference between a fourth, fifth or sixth place finish in Division Two could ultimately prove to be the difference between All-Ireland or Tailteann Cup football in the summer.
Saddle up, it’s moving weekend in league football’s middle tiers.
Remaining Fixtures
Division 2
Rd 6: Cork v Louth; Down v Westmeath; Meath v Monaghan; Roscommon v Cavan
Rd 7: Cavan v Cork; Louth v Meath; Monaghan v Down; Westmeath v Roscommon
Division 3
Rd 6: Laois v Clare; Offaly v Kildare; Leitrim v Fermanagh; Antrim v Sligo
Rd 7: Clare v Offaly; Fermanagh v Laois; Kildare v Antrim; Sligo v Leitrim
