Micheál Martin’s leadership has been under pressure before, but the Fianna Fáil leader has rarely been so vulnerable as he is now.
Ever since he became party leader back in 2011, there has always been a group of TDs so alienated from Martin personally and politically that they would take any opportunity to dump him.
He has always been able to outmanoeuvre them, partly because he has proved better at politics than them, but also because the large group of middle-ground TDs couldn’t see a better alternative and were unwilling to engage in a damaging coup to satisfy other people’s bloodlust.
The passage of time has altered that picture a bit – but not completely. Martin is very unlikely to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election, and everybody knows it. That means the leadership change is a question of when, not if.
RM Block
The long years in power have meant that enemies have accumulated, and ministerial office should not be taken as a guarantee of support in a secret ballot. Such is the trajectory of all political careers.
And the monumental screw-up of the Jim Gavin presidential candidacy has left TDs and grassroots alike seething. Much of that anger is now directed in Martin’s direction.
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That is not, however, to say that Martin’s leadership is in its last days. The rebels almost certainly have the 12 signatures needed for a no-confidence motion, which could be tabled next week (the Dáil is on recess this week so there is no meeting of the parliamentary party).
But it is far from certain that they would have enough support to win a no-confidence vote.
To do that, there must be a plan for the day after. The man most talked about as the successor to Martin is the Minister for Justice, Jim O’Callaghan.
Tongues have been wagging because one of the TDs to come out and criticise Martin over the weekend was the Dublin South West deputy, John Lahart, generally seen as a supporter of O’Callaghan’s.
But informed party sources say that O’Callaghan is not on manoeuvres and believes that he needs more time in Cabinet before he can be considered Taoiseach material. Some – though not all – of those close to Martin also believe this.
This is also the view of many TDs in the middle ground of the party. Speaking to RTÉ at lunchtime on Monday, Wexford-Wicklow TD Malcolm Byrne was critical of the party leadership but shied away from joining any putative rebellion.
That is a view shared by many in the middle ground group of TDs. They are more critical of Martin than they have ever been, and they know that the Government is not making sufficient progress on a variety of issues, especially on housing, which is something they hear about in their constituencies all the time. They are angry about the presidential election. But they are not showing signs that they want an immediate change of leadership – not as a knee-jerk reaction to the election, anyway.
On Monday, The Irish Times contacted all Fianna Fáil TDs. Those who answered on the record were all supportive of Martin. It does not feel like momentum is building towards a heave – or a successful one, at any rate.
That does not mean that Martin is safe. These things can have a momentum of their own, and some of Martin supporters believe that there will be a motion against the leader next week when TDs return to the Dáil.
Would a motion break the dam and tumble Martin? Or would he win, settling the question of the leadership for the foreseeable future? These are the questions that are now being sweated over by Fianna Fáilers of all factions and none.
