The last big televised debate of the presidential campaign is over and there are 48 hours to go to polling day.
Will any of those who watched the big debate on Prime Time last night now change their minds about how they will vote on Friday?
Given her tepid performance in the first televised debate, Heather Humphreys was always going to have a stronger performance.
But as Pat Leahy and Ellen Coyne report from the Prime Time debate, there were no knock-out blows from either candidate.
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It was the best of the live televised events because of the amount of time that was allocated as well as the format. Presenters Miriam O’Callaghan and Sarah McInerney each took it in turns to question the candidates on key themes and ensured that the trigger questions of the campaign were asked, in some cases repeatedly.
Was there any further clarity? A little. Humphreys gave the fullest apology to the family of Shane O’Farrell, the cyclist (23) killed by a motorist with more than 40 previous convictions and who should have been in jail for breaches of bail conditions that were applied to him at the time.
Connolly confirmed explicitly for the first time that she did represent banks in repossession cases but only after prolonged questions. She also accepted that the impassioned and outspoken messages of her campaign on genocide and neutrality and militarisation would be curtailed.
Asked specifically if she would meet Donald Trump and tell him that the United States was an enabler of genocide, she replied that it was a speculative question and that it depended on what was on the agenda.
“If it’s just a meet and greet, then I will meet and greet. If the discussion is genocide, that’s a completely different thing,” she said.
It was a consistent line of her campaign, although it will disappoint some of those who support her. Connolly has walked a narrow line during the campaign between her radical left-wing views and giving a commitment to respect the limits of the office if she becomes president.
Elsewhere, both candidates were grilled on what would be seen as their vulnerabilities: on Connolly’s Syria trip, on her employing a woman convicted of offences associated with armed republicanism; on Humphreys’s support for fox hunting and alleged influence on an animal cruelty case, as well as her failure to learn Irish.
So will it change the outcome?
It is noteworthy that the last opinion poll, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, was published eight days before the vote, with the research conducted at least 10 days before voting.
In 2011, the last Irish Times poll was published only four days before the vote and – crucially – before the final TV debate. It showed Seán Gallagher with a 15-point lead over Michael D Higgins.
That infamous debate on RTÉ’s Frontline was decisive in determining the outcome of the election. Gallagher’s campaign collapsed that night with Higgins benefiting.
There was no such Damascene moment last night. Besides, the two contests were different. This involves only two candidates. There were seven in 2011.
And Humphreys’s shortfall is even greater. Eighteen points. However, a lot can change in ten days. Fine Gael has been castigated by its opponents for its negative tactics and what Opposition leaders described as a “smear” campaign against Connolly. As there has been no poll since Thursday, there has been no effective way of measuring its impact, if any. Not until polling day.
There has certainly been a Connolly wave and as Sarah Burns writes this morning, she has captured the youth vote almost in its entirety. That despite being five years older than her rival!
The Fine Gael candidate is not without hope but it’s a long shot. The Fianna Fáil supporter has almost entirely disappeared in the poll, other than the 5 per cent voting for the riderless horse of Jim Gavin. I suspect some of them fall into the category of the spoiled votes (6 per cent) or won’t vote (12 per cent) and might be persuaded to actually vote.
However, Fianna Fáil TDs to whom I spoke yesterday said their votes would not be all that heavily weighted towards Humphreys, with Connolly getting at least a third.
In all those scenarios the gap looks too big.
Election Daily
Besides the early daily election political digest – which means one poor soul (me!) has to rise before the lark – the political team has also been podcasting daily during the campaign. Indeed, we have two podcasts from yesterday, including one giving reaction to last night’s debate. Host Hugh Linehan discussed the main themes and impacts of the debate with Pat Leahy and Ellen Coyne.
Earlier yesterday, Hugh explored with Jack Horgan-Jones and me if a new left-wing political movement had grown out of the campaign, the so-called Vicar Street Alliance.
The Saggart riot
A shocking alleged sexual assault on a young girl was the flashpoint for the disgraceful scenes outside CityWest last night, where a mob of an estimated 1,000 people confronted gardaí and also set a Garda van alight. Conor Lally and Cian O’Connell reported from the scene for The Irish Times that six people had been arrested.
As Marie O’Halloran reports, the issue of the alleged assault dominated proceedings in the Dáil yesterday, with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald pointing out the alleged perpetrator was the subject of a deportation order from the State since last March.
Best reads
Pat Leahy writes on the five main takeaways from last night’s debate.
Jack Horgan-Jones explains the cab-rank rule among barristers, certainly the most discussed work-related practice to make national headlines.
No, Maria Steen wasn’t robbed and the election was not rigged, writes Kathy Sheridan.
Playbook
Both candidates will be canvassing today on the penultimate day of the campaign proper.
Dáil Éireann
9.00: Topical Issues
10.00: Private Members’ Business. Independent Technical Group motion on Office of the President
12.00: Leaders’ Questions
12.34: Other Members’ Questions
12.42: Questions on Policy or Legislation
13.12: Statements on Men’s Health
15.37: Statements on Fisheries
19.09: Dáil adjourns
Seanad Éireann
12.00: Order of Business
13.15: Defamation (Amendment) Bill 2024 – Committee Stage
16:30: Housing Finance Agency (Amendment) Bill 2025 – Committee and remaining Stages
18.30: Domestic Violence (Free Travel Scheme) Bill 2025 – Second Stage
20.30: Seanad adjourns
Committees
9.30: Committee on Disability Matters discusses participation in community life for people with disabilities
10.45: Health Committee discusses current issues relating to health services for cancer
9.45: Social Protection, Rural and Community Development is conducting a review of Our Rural Future: Rural Development Policy 2021-2025
10.00: Transport Committee is discussing the All-Island Strategic Rail Review
12.30: The Education Committee is discussing curriculum reform at senior cycle
12.30: Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy is engaging with the construction sector on climate-change targets
15.30: Committee on Finance is continuing its examination of the Israeli Bond Programme
17.00: The Committee on Defence and National Security is discussing defence developments at EU level
