In 2011, in the last poll of the presidential election, Labour candidate Michael D Higgins’s support was lagging behind Independent Sean Gallagher by 15 points.
Just four days later, Higgins wheeled the scrum and won the election. The remarkable turnaround was propelled by the infamous Frontline debate on RTÉ One when Gallagher’s campaign suffered significant damage.
The Irish Times opinion poll, the last of this campaign, had shown Independent candidate Catherine Connolly with a commanding lead of 38 per cent to 20 per cent over Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael. Is there any prospect of Humphreys of closing that gap, and what should both do in the final days to bolster their chances?
1 - Humphreys needs to change the message
Fergus Finlay was chief of staff for Labour leader Dick Spring in the coalition governments between 1992 and 1996 and was a leading figure in Mary Robinson’s presidential election campaign in 1990.
RM Block
He thinks there’s no point in maintaining the criticism of Connolly “because it hasn’t stuck”.
So what approach is best? “I think warm and friendly is the only way to go,” says Finlay.
Gerry Howlin is also a columnist and was special adviser to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern in successive Fianna Fáil-led governments between 1997 and 2008.
Election Daily: Is it all over bar the shouting for Heather Humphreys?
He believes Humphreys made a “deep mistake” in running a Fine Gael campaign.
“In theory, that might have worked if Fianna Fáil had a candidate coming behind her, but the Fine Gael candidate is stranded now, with no wider coalition around her,” he says.
So how does Humphreys change tack in an effort to shore up support? “She won’t succeed in demonising Connolly,” he says. “Instead, she must try to reach beyond Fine Gael to community groups, working-class estates and convert an edgier, more connected campaign.”
2 - No change for Connolly
For Catherine Connolly, it’s an easier ask. While Finlay is from the side of Labour that is not enamoured of her candidacy, he praises her campaign.
“It has been seamless so far. She’s been able to take every blow that’s been directed at ... there’s no need for change in the last week.”
Over the weekend, Fine Gael renewed its criticism of her representing banks as a barrister. There is also a video in wide circulation on social media showing an exchange between Connolly and a woman in 2016. The woman claimed that Connolly could not stand up as a politician for people being evicted from homes while also representing banks in those cases.
The reality, says Howlin, is that Connolly is “Teflon” in terms of criticism. Referring to the video, he says his view is that as a barrister, “she took whatever work was going. She was calm and clear in that interaction”.
His advice for her. “Connolly should keep dancing! There is another video that has gone viral of her set dancing, and like her keepie-uppies, it conveys optimism, agility and inclusion.”
He adds that her “get out the vote” message is vital. The turnout in 2018 was 43 per cent, and there is some concern it will be lower in 2025, with a view that it will affect Connolly more.
3 - Fine Gael needs to be more present
In terms of Heather Humphreys, Finlay says the biggest surprise for him was the absence of a visible show by the party during the campaign. “It may be that people have decided that that sort of traditional politics is passé and doesn’t fit in the social media age and so on.
“In the past, there would have been a monster rally on her behalf, with all of the party faithful and bigwigs and grandees wheeled out. They would have held at least one or two.
He adds that Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael Simon Harris has been “largely invisible as far as he can see. That needs to change,” he says.
He thinks a show of strength is required. “One last big all-out party push would make absolute sense to me.”
4. Is there a bear trap lurking?
And is the die cast, or is there a moment in the final days that might determine the outcome? The only possible one identified is the Prime Time debate on Tuesday night. “The campaign is over, unless there is a brown envelope moment in that debate,” says Finlay.
He is referring to the moment in the 2011 Frontline debate when Gallagher was asked if he was given a donation for Fianna Fáil by a certain individual. “It destroyed Gallagher at a moment when he was absolutely certain to win and elected Michael D at a moment when he was absolutely certain to lose,” he says.
