It is just over a week until voters cast their ballots in the presidential election and looking at today’s opinion poll one thing is clear: Heather Humphreys has a mountain to climb if she is to deny Catherine Connolly the keys to Áras an Uachtaráin.
As Political Editor Pat Leahy reports, Connolly holds a commanding lead in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
The Galway West left-wing Independent TD is on 38 per cent, almost double the support of Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, on 20 per cent.
Spare a thought for Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin who stopped his presidential campaign last week but remains on the ballot paper and is at just 5 per cent.
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Connolly storms into presidential race lead, Irish Times poll shows
Leahy reports that although the number of “don’t knows” remains relatively high, at 18 per cent, the poll suggests that if the election was held immediately, Connolly would win on the first count.
Other findings of the poll are that 12 per cent of respondents said they will not vote and 6 per cent will spoil their vote.
When those who said they don’t know, or who will not vote or who said they intend to spoil their vote are excluded, the numbers are as follows: Catherine Connolly, 60 per cent; Heather Humphreys, 32 per cent; Jim Gavin, 8 per cent.
Humphreys has not benefited as well as Fine Gael might have hoped from the halt to Mr Gavin’s campaign.
The poll also contains evidence of voter disillusionment with the slate of candidates offered to them. Almost half of voters (49 per cent) said they “don’t feel represented by any of the candidates”; 40 per cent disagreed.
Ipsos B&A president Damien Loscher writes that it looks like the presidency is Connolly’s to lose but, that said, in a presidential election where some loyalties are paper thin, no lead is unassailable.
In his analysis Leahy says the poll suggests it would take an earthquake now for Connolly to be denied victory in next week’s vote.
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling. Personal in-home interviewing took place on October 12th, 13th and 14th. There were 1,200 interviews conducted. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
The Election Daily podcast is back up and running. You can listen to Hugh Linehan and Pat Leahy discussing the poll here.
Best reads
Miriam Lord was out on the campaign trail and she writes that the presidential election is proving to be a piece of cake for Catherine Connolly. However, though her campaign is buoyant, one spirited elderly voter remains unconvinced.
Sarah Burns was also out and about meeting voters at the Kilcullen cattle mart and finds they are looking for “someone you can trust” in the presidential race.
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has said his party will think “long and hard over the next 24 hours” about whether to bring a further Dáil motion next week after Tánaiste Simon Harris won a confidence motion by 94 votes to 65. Marie O’Halloran reports here.
Perpetrators of domestic violence will be named on a new register run by the courts, under a law being introduced by the Government. Ellen Coyne has the story.
Today’s front page off-lead is an investigation by Conor Gallagher detailing how scam call centres are paying up to €1,200 per person for the contact details of potential Irish victims and how, globally, Irish people are among the most sought-after targets for investment scam operations.
In Patrick Freyne’s TV column he writes: I don’t want to see Victoria Beckham chatting over coffee. I want to see her in a rocket to space.
Playbook
The presidential election candidates, Independent TD Catherine Connolly and Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, will be back on the campaign trail today.
Minister for Higher Education James Lawless is due to take parliamentary questions in the Dáil from 8.47am.
Next up at 10.24am is Minister for Rural and Community Development and the Gaeltacht Dara Calleary.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon.
Government business in the afternoon is a debate on the National Training Fund (Amendment) Bill 2025. It starts at 1.53pm.
TDs have an opportunity to raise topical issues at 5.27pm.
A Sinn Féin Bill on education will be debated from 6.27pm.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin will address the Seanad at 11am.
The Committee on Education will look at current and future plans for Leaving Cert curriculum reform at 9.30am.
The Public Accounts Committee will quiz the Health Service Executive on its 2024 accounts from 10.30am.
The full Dáil, Seanad and Committee schedules can be found here.
