With barely more than a week to go, it looks like the presidency is Catherine Connolly’s to lose. That said, in a presidential election where some loyalties are paper thin, no lead is unassailable.
Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll gives Independent Connolly, on 38 per cent, a commanding lead over Heather Humphreys, on 20 per cent.
Jim Gavin, who ended his campaign for the Áras earlier this month , registers 5 per cent in our poll, reflecting either a reluctance to accept or a lack of awareness that he is no longer running.
Not all respondents to the poll give a first preference to one of the three candidates – 18 per cent are undecided and 12 per cent do not intend to vote at all.
RM Block
A unique feature of this election has been a campaign encouraging voters to spoil their vote in protest, which is how 6 per cent of the electorate intend to “vote” next Friday.
Interviewing for this poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week, across all constituencies and counties in Ireland. In total, 1,200 interviews were conducted, with controls by age and gender to ensure a representative sample of the Irish adult population was achieved.
Thus far, the 2025 presidential campaign has been eventful, to say the least.
Only three candidates managed to successfully navigate the nomination process. Then, to add insult to injury, one of the three candidates dropped out.
For the record, 67 per cent of poll respondents agree that former Dublin football manger Gavin’s decision to withdraw was the right decision.
The frustration voiced by politicians and potential candidates about the nomination process and outcome is shared by the general public, according to the poll.
When asked if the Constitution should be changed to make it easier to run, 55 per cent agree, compared to 34 per cent who disagree.
Maria Steen nearly made it on to the ballot, falling just two nominations short. As far as public opinion is concerned, she should have been facilitated to be on the ballot, with 45 per cent in favour of her inclusion and 24 per cent against.
The failure of conservative campaigner Steen to be nominated is felt most acutely by Aontú voters, many of whom have in mind to spoil their vote. Voters who support the Independent Ireland party or would vote for an Independent candidate in a general election also over-index on vote spoiling intentions.
We are now into the final week of campaigning and as things stand Connolly attracts almost twice the level of support (38 per cent) as former Fine Gael minister Heather Humphreys (20 per cent).
Connolly is leading across all demographics, and noticeably so among younger voters, with 44 per cent support among the under 35s, compared to just 12 per cent for Humphreys.
An interesting observation from Thursday’s poll is the lack of enthusiasm among Fine Gael supporters for their candidate. The party’s voters will mostly give Humphreys their first preference (56 per cent), but leakage to Connolly (22 per cent) is significant.
Contrast this with Sinn Féin supporters, who overwhelming endorse Connolly over Humphreys (63 per cent to 5 per cent).
Fianna Fáil voters are leaning towards Humphreys (42 per cent), followed by Connolly (26 per cent) and Gavin (13 per cent).
Is there a path to victory for Humphreys, through variable turnout or transfers?
Voter turnout will play a role, but despite the former leas-cheann comhairle’s voters being younger, they claim to be more likely to vote – 83 per cent say they will definitely vote, compared to 78 per cent for Humphreys.
The impact of turnout tends to amplify the lower it gets. The 2025 election could see more voters than usual stay at home for lack of a compelling choice. One in two (49 per cent) of our poll respondents admit they do not “feel represented by any of the candidates”.
Gavin will be eliminated first so could his transfers boost Humphreys? Among those intending to give him a first preference, second preferences are evenly split, with 36 per cent going to Connolly and 35 per cent to Humphreys. The net effect will be to close the gap, although the impact is likely to be marginal in the final analysis.
Another dynamic to consider is how, in referendums, the outcome tends to become less certain as polling day nears. In some respects, this presidential election looks like a referendum so a narrowing of the gap would not be surprising.
Even with all these factors in play, an upset is extremely unlikely unless some new and pertinent information is revealed to voters in the days ahead.
