Good morning.
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Micheál Martin faces a room of unhappy backbenchers amid rumblings of a leadership change, criticisms of election strategy and campaign trail decisions. In the run-in, some have questioned whether Martin will remain leader when he hands the Taoiseach’s chair to Fine Gael. Grievances are aired – particularly about over-centralisation of decision making – and the leadership makes grave commitments to change, to take on board the criticism and to learn while leading the party forward. The meeting takes absolutely ages as members of the parliamentary party have their contributions. Political correspondents report that hours in, only a handful of speakers have concluded, and there are many more to come.
The scene is not the Fianna Fáil party rooms that hosted a crunch party meeting in Leinster House on Wednesday night – but rather the Slieve Russell hotel in Cavan, which hosted the party’s think-in in September 2021. Despite leading his party into government, Martin had faced sustained criticism from backbenchers over the 2020 election result, compounded by the Covid pandemic, the Zapponegate and Golfgate controversies, the bumpy start to the coalition, and the party’s limp result in the Dublin Bay South byelection caused by Eoghan Murphy’s resignation (polling less than 5 per cent). It was billed as a threat to Martin’s leadership – a moment when he could be challenged by internal critics. He emerged strengthened – a challenge failed to materialise amid the marathon talks – and didn’t look back for three years, culminating in the party’s strong 2024 election showing and his return as Taoiseach. Martin is many things – but primarily he is a great political survivor. He has now been leader of Fianna Fáil for almost 5,400 days.
Despite the similarities, the lasting outcome from Wednesday’s meeting in Leinster House may be different from the Cavan encounter. Amid the wreckage of the Jim Gavin presidential campaign, Martin was contrite, telling colleagues of his devastation at the outcome. It was always hard to see an immediate threat to his leadership last night, so long as he put in a performance that he is well capable of. But it’s equally hard to see the whole affair as anything other than deeply wounding for the Taoiseach. His longevity as leader has been underpinned by his judgment at many key moments as he guided the party back from the brink. His big error with the Gavin affair was that that judgment let him down – and in so doing, caused genuine upset – but more importantly handed an advantage and a valid criticism to internal critics.
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Micheál Martin finds himself in a familiar story but with an uncertain ending
Martin came through the Cavan meeting four years ago and it marked the end of a prolonged period of speculation about his future. He came through Wednesday’s meeting, too, but it is probably just the start of another such period.
Best reads
Harry McGee and Pat Leahy’s on-the-whistle report from last night’s meeting is here: Micheál Martin apologises to Fianna Fáil over disastrous presidential election campaign
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Catherine Connolly’s “Syria” spending is our lead story today, by Cormac McQuinn
Newton Emerson asks why the parties of Northern Ireland’s political centre are at each other’s throats
Lara Marlowe on France’s rejection of Emmanuel Macron: There’s one constant in the chaos engulfing France: visceral rejection of Emmanuel Macron
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Playbook
Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan is taking oral questions in the Dáil from 10.23am, followed by Leaders’ Questions and Other Members’ Questions. Questions on Policy or Legislation is before lunch, with statements on World Mental Health day afterwards. Government Business covers financial resolutions stemming from the budget, before Topical Issues before 7pm.
The Seanad sits from 9.30am. Legislation reforming the defamation system continues committee stage at 12.30am, before the upper house concludes for the week at 2.30pm.
Here’s the full schedule.
The Committee on Children has a hearing on child poverty and deprivation at 9.30am. The Higher and Further Education Committee is meeting on apprenticeships at the same time. The Public Accounts Committee has its weekly meeting on Thursday morning too, examining issues around the National Treatment Purchase Fund and Beaumont Hospital.
Here’s the full schedule.
Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys are both on the campaign trail in Dublin today. And the first one-on-one debate between the pair is scheduled to start at 5pm on RTÉ’s Drivetime on Thursday.
Jim O’Callaghan and Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill are at a conference on combating pornography, sexual violence and sexual exploitation hosted by Ruhama.
Away from the political world, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced later.
