So Jim Gavin is out – does this mean his name is removed from election completely?
No. Gavin has been validly nominated as a candidate and so will appear on the ballot paper, at least some of which have already been printed and sent to postal voters. If you want to vote for Jim Gavin, for whatever reason, you will be able to when you cast your vote.
And will those votes be counted?
Yes. A vote for Gavin is a valid vote and will be counted. So will his transfers – assuming that Gavin comes third, and neither Heather Humphreys nor Catherine Connolly reaches 50 per cent plus one vote on the first count, and the gap between the two women is smaller than the total number of votes for Gavin – his number two votes will be distributed between the two women, making them decisive. Bizarrely, Gavin’s votes could yet decide the election.
Are they not spoiled votes?
No. A vote that shows a clear preference for Gavin and has no identifying marks will be counted as a vote for him, and if it shows a second preference, it will be transferred as applicable.
Could he actually ... win?
Theoretically, yes. Legally he is still in the election, and if he wins the election, he wins the election. Politically however, this is in the realm of the fantastical.
RM Block
Perhaps disaffected Maria Steen supporters, who were intent on spoiling their votes by writing her name on the ballot paper – intending to make a point about her exclusion from the race – could transfer their preference to Gavin in a bid to bring the whole election into disrepute. But even if they did, it’s enormously unlikely he would win.
And in the vastly unlikely event, what would happen?
Sources with knowledge of the area say that if a candidate who had sought to leave the race, and did not want to become president, were then elected, a little-known but wide-ranging power of the Minister for Housing (who is responsible for elections) under the Electoral Acts could be utilised.
The power allows the Minister to intervene if there is “an emergency or special difficulty” and make an order about the conduct of any election. In this case, it is suggested, the Minister could order nominations to be reopened and the election to be run again.
If you were a very optimistic Steen supporter, that could possibly be a route to the presidency. It’s technically possible, but pretty far-fetched.
