Why was Jim Gavin’s issue with a former tenant not discovered during Fianna Fáil’s vetting process with the candidate?
The emergence of an aggrieved tenant – with documents and a record of contacts – seems to have completely blindsided Fianna Fáil. The fact that Jim Gavin denied there was any issue – effectively misleading his own campaign – when questions were submitted by the Irish Independent last week seems to have prompted the decision to pull out of the presidential election. The Taoiseach stressed it was the “right decision”.
Speaking on RTÉ radio on Monday morning, campaign director and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers bluntly said the party had been kept in the dark by Gavin – leading to accusations that he was throwing the candidate under a bus.
But it also prompts the question of why the party’s vetting process failed to identify the issue. Gavin’s difficulties with the city centre apartment and a period of financial stress for his family was reportedly covered in depth by the process, but evidently not in sufficient depth.
What is the future for Micheál Martin’s relationship with his Fianna Fáil TDs?
Throughout the summer, a succession of individuals presented themselves for consideration as presidential candidates. Those mentioned included Bertie Ahern and Mary Hanafin, as well as more exotic suggestions such as Colum Eastwood, Deirdre Heenan and even Michael Flatley. All were dismissed by the Fianna Fáil leadership as unsuitable. It was only when Martin unveiled his preferred candidate in August that things in the party began to move with any purpose.
RM Block
This was a source of unhappiness among many of Martin’s TDs and was reflected in the strong vote for Billy Kelleher at the parliamentary party’s selection vote. TDs felt they were being taken for granted.
At the heart of the matter is the uneasy relationship Martin has often had with his parliamentary party. They felt taken for granted (they may be right); he felt he couldn’t trust them (he was often right). Something of a showdown is now in prospect, whose consequences are inherently unpredictable. Few think Martin’s leadership will be threatened by the presidential-election disaster, but many think it will be shortened.
Why choose a non-politician for a political campaign?
This is the question that goes to the heart of Martin’s judgment in picking Gavin. Presidential campaigns are notoriously tough, personal and unforgiving, shining a merciless spotlight on any shortcomings, misdemeanours or mistakes in a candidate’s past.
Gavin is, by nature, given to meticulous preparation – and yet he seemed, even before the weekend’s controversy, unsuited to and unprepared for the campaign trail. For one example, the campaign is mostly conducted through the media, but Gavin was not a comfortable media performer. He seemed unable to convey a compelling reason to elect him president, retreating to platitudes and soundbites. He didn’t have the tradecraft required for a political campaign. So why pick him?
Does Micheál Martin still intend to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election?
Martin is due to remain Taoiseach until November 2027. Polling suggests he is the most popular party leader and remains the leader of the largest party in the Dáil and in local government. He is confronted by this disaster in a position of political strength.
But time moves on. By the time Martin hands over the keys to the taoiseach’s office in two years’ time, he will be 67. By the time of the next general election, he will be 69. Will he really be asking voters to put him back into government in his 70s?
Convention requires that he insists he will lead the party into the next election. To say otherwise would be to start the clock on his exit. But in reality, Fianna Fáil will probably have a new leader for the next general election.
The weekend’s events are likely to embolden those in his party who want to start that conversation sooner rather than later. Martin’s authority, whatever way you look at it, is severely dented. He will probably continue to say he is leading the party into the next election. Few will believe him, though.
Who does Fianna Fáil support now?
Though Gavin will remain on the ballot paper, his campaign is over – so Fianna Fáil has a decision to make about who to support. Early indications are that there will be no quick decision on this – Martin would be wise to consult his parliamentary party, you’d imagine – but some senior party figures have already indicated that they would vote for Heather Humphreys. It would be surprising if they did anything else. Even for Fianna Fáil voters who claim a social democratic outlook (the party leader is among them), Catherine Connolly is rather too left wing for them. It will set up a clear fight between a candidate of Government, and a candidate of Opposition.
[ What happens to the ballot now that Jim Gavin has exited the race for the Áras?Opens in new window ]
