Presidential hopeful Gareth Sheridan’s chances of making it on to the ballot paper rest on four county councils – setting the scene for a dash through the midlands and east of the country in the coming days.
With nominations secured from Tipperary and Kerry, Sheridan needs to convince two more from Carlow, Meath, Offaly and Louth acting as potential kingmakers.
Independent Senator Sharon Keogan called for councillors to back Sheridan and Maria Steen where they are running, saying representatives should be “strategic” in pushing for a vote to take place.
Though there are still more than a dozen local authorities to make their final decision, councils are being discounted by his campaign for a variety of reasons; some have indicated they won’t endorse anyone; some, like Leitrim, are seen as possibly opting for another candidate like Ms Steen; others simply have too many Fine Gael councillors, who are under a party whip to block other candidates from progressing (although this was defied by one Fine Gaeler in Tipperary, whose vote proved pivotal).
RM Block
The same is true to a lesser extent for Fianna Fáil councillors – and even Independents who are supportive of Catherine Connolly. A low level of non-aligned Independents who might swing for Sheridan has also led to some councils being discounted.
Sometimes, it’s purely a case of geography – on “Super Monday”, when 12 councils are set to decide, it is not possible to be in Meath at 9.30am, Monaghan at 10am and Clare at 2pm, while Offaly is also meeting at 2pm. So, choices have to be made.
So, it will all turn on four counties – starting with Carlow, which meets at 4pm on Friday. Sheridan is, as of Thursday afternoon, the only person set to present to the council and seek its nomination.
Of the 18 councillors, six are Fine Gael, five Fianna Fáil, two from Sinn Féin, three independents and one each from People Before Profit and Labour. In a theme that will repeat itself across all four, Sheridan probably needs the Fianna Fáilers to at least abstain to give him a fighting chance.
His campaign was reaching out to all parties on Thursday – partially pushing their message about the candidate, but pivoting also to argue that a three-horse race was not healthy, urging councillors to exercise their right under the Constitution.
Sheridan has made a virtue of pressing the flesh with councillors over a period of months, probably realising that making them feel the love could prove vital.
If his strategy pays off in Carlow, he will head into next week with significant momentum. If it fails, however, a path still remains open to him. That path begins in Meath at 9.30am on Monday, where Fine Gael (11 seats) and Fianna Fáil (nine) control half the local authority. Six from Sinn Féin, two from Aontú, one Social Democrat and the balance being Independents.
Councillors privately say that there is a route to a nomination for a credible candidate here – but again, it will most likely rest with Fianna Fáil.
Next on the target list is Offaly with its 19 county councillors. Five seats are held by Fine Gael, and eight by Fianna Fáil, with three for Sinn Féin and three Independents. The council meets at 2pm – and it’s the same story here, with Fianna Fáil’s intentions key. In Laois, which was also targeted by Sheridan, his way was firmly blocked by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. If that happens in Carlow, Meath and Offaly, then his campaign is likely out of steam before the last council he has targeted meets.
However, if he has managed to get just one nomination, he will break for the border county of Louth, which meets at 6.30pm, with momentum – an amorphous but hugely important factor in political campaigning.
He will face off against Nick Delahanty and Keith McGrory, with 29 votes to play for – seven Sinn Féin, seven Independents, two Labour, a single Green, and six each from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. There are multiple variables to balance – not least how Sinn Féin’s decision on its presidential strategy, due to be announced on Saturday, will influence its councillors.
If he heads to Louth with three councils behind him, the county might find it hard to deny him his shot.
