Fianna Fáil does not yet know who its candidate in the presidential election will be. But the party leadership is quite clear who it won’t be.
A series of conversations with senior party figures, some of whom are familiar with party leader Micheál Martin’s views, say that Martin’s opposition to the prospect of a Bertie Ahern candidacy has not softened over the summer.
If anything, they say, his views have hardened. And in Fianna Fáil, Martin normally gets his way.
Ahern has been signalling an interest in the role for a long time. On one level, he has all the necessary qualifications: a household name, former taoiseach, long-time minister, experienced in international affairs, especially on the EU stage, deep relationships with both communities in Northern Ireland and with the historic achievement of the peace process and the Belfast Agreement to his name.
RM Block
But there is another side to Ahern’s past too. His evidence to the Mahon tribunal, which investigated his personal finances, was deeply embarrassing to the party and ultimately led to his resignation as taoiseach in 2008.
When the tribunal made its findings in 2012, adjudging some of his evidence to be not credible, the party moved to expel him, prompting him to resign his membership, though he strongly disputed the tribunal’s findings. He rejoined in 2023, shortly before the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement.
During his period in office, Ahern presided over remarkable economic development, transforming the country, but also over the excesses of the Celtic Tiger era that preceded the financial crash and the ultimate bailout of 2010 that took place two years after he left office. The era of austerity is also part of his legacy.
Party chiefs fear that an Ahern candidacy would inevitably lead to an intense focus not just on the negative aspects of his period in office, but on the mistakes made by Fianna Fáil-led governments. They believe he would spend much of the campaign answering questions about the past, not the future.
The same rationale motivates Martin’s lack of enthusiasm for the proffered candidacies of Mary Hanafin and Eamon Ó Cuiv, though both could reasonably point out that Martin too was a member of the Ahern-led governments that preceded the economic crash and the Brian Cowen-led one that managed it so disastrously. Martin, however, has managed to rebuild his and his party’s relationship with voters since then; he is unlikely to want to risk that with a re-excavation of the past.
Nor is there any leadership enthusiasm for Northern Ireland based potential candidates, the academic Deirdre Heenan and the former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood. Siofra O’Leary, a law professor at UCD and former judge of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), was mentioned in some media reports. Senior party insiders confirmed her name had been circulated but were sceptical that she was a realistic prospect.
There is some enthusiasm, however, for the former Dublin football manager Jim Gavin, whose name was reported by the Irish Independent yesterday. Senior Fianna Fáil sources, who had previously ruled out any of the names which have been floated all summer, confirmed that Gavin would be real contender. But it is not clear yet if Gavin is willing to put himself through a campaign.
There are likely to be other potential candidates. You’d be surprised, said one insider, at the number of people who want to be the Fianna Fáil candidate for president.
They will have to get their skates on. Martin is likely to brief his parliamentary party next week. Expect flurries of speculation in advance of that – and things to firm up soon afterwards.
