In the week when actual candidates for the presidency finally stuck their heads above the parapet, today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll finds that nobody has really caught fire with the public at this early stage.
In so far as there is a frontrunner, it is the Fine Gael candidate Mairead McGuinness. She was confirmed in that position last Tuesday, though apparently plans no active campaigning until September. Asked who they would “probably vote for”, 14 per cent of respondents plumped for McGuinness; she was the only candidate to get into double figures.
As expected, McGuinness’s strongest supporters are Fine Gael voters, among whom 37 per cent say they will probably vote for her. More surprisingly, perhaps, she is also the favourite choice of Fianna Fáil voters, as 25 per cent favour her. That is more than the 17 per cent who nominate Bertie Ahern and 9 per cent who say Micheál Martin would get their vote. The very low level of support for Martin suggests that Fianna Fáil voters want him to continue as Taoiseach.
Independent TD Catherine Connolly attracts the support of 9 per cent of respondents – a decent, though hardly show-stopping, performance. She scores strongly among voters of the left-wing parties – except for Sinn Féin voters, where only 5 per cent of respondents favour her.
RM Block
Instead, Sinn Féin voters would vote for Mary Lou McDonald (33 per cent), far ahead of Michelle O’Neill (6 per cent) and Gerry Adams (3 per cent).
[ Mairead McGuinness leads in presidential election poll but public imagination yet to be caught ]
Perhaps the most instructive finding in the presidency poll relates to the number of people who said “none of the names so far appeal to me” (18 per cent). Similarly, 20 per cent of the electorate said they were not sure how they would vote. To say the race is wide open at this stage is something of an understatement.
Finally, voters are roughly evenly divided on whether they would like the next president to be a current or former politician, or someone from a non-political background – 43 per cent prefer a politician, with 41 per cent saying they would like a non-politician.
The poll also asked about the potential next leaders of the three big parties. For each of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, respondents were asked if the current leaders were to step down, who they would like to see as the next leader.
As you might expect, the “don’t knows” were relatively high, but some clear preferences emerged.
In Fianna Fáil, the leading contender is Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan, who is favoured by 16 per cent of voters. He is followed by Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers on 13 per cent and Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien on 9 per cent. A fifth of voters (20 per cent) favoured someone else, while a hefty 42 per cent said they didn’t know.
Among Fianna Fáil voters, however, O’Callaghan has a clear lead with 32 per cent support, ahead of Chambers on 21 per cent and O’Brien on 15 per cent.
There is a clear favourite in Sinn Féin. Finance spokesman Pearse Doherty is the choice of 28 per cent of all voters to succeed Mary Lou McDonald, followed by Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill on 17 per cent and housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin on 9 per cent. Just 16 per cent say they would like someone else, while 35 per cent say they don’t know.
Doherty is also the strong favourite among Sinn Féin voters, where he wins 42 per cent support.
In Fine Gael, there also is a clear favourite: Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is the choice of 29 per cent, followed by Helen McEntee on 12 per cent and Jennifer Carroll MacNeill on 8 per cent. “Don’t knows” are at 35 per cent and 16 per cent say they would like someone else.
Among Fine Gael voters, the choice is even more overwhelming: 50 per cent say they would like Donohoe to be leader if Simon Harris stepped down.
There is further good news for Donohoe when voters were asked how they rated the performance of Cabinet Ministers.
[ The presidency is not a Rose of Tralee contest for over-35sOpens in new window ]
Voters rate him ahead of any of his colleagues – and far ahead of most of them. Asked if they thought each Minister was doing a good job, a poor job or if they had no opinion, Donohoe – who has recently been warning of the need for a cautious and prudent budget, pledging to end the one-off giveaways of recent years – was the standout performer.
The popularity of Donohoe at a time when he is warning of the need for budgetary prudence suggests a certain degree of nervousness about the country’s economic prospects, but also confidence in the Minister for Finance to manage the potentially difficult times ahead.
Almost half of all voters (48 per cent) said he was doing a good job, with 26 per cent saying he was doing a poor job and 26 per cent not sure. That gives Donohoe a net positive rating of 22 points – along with the lowest number of don’t knows.
Just five other Ministers have net positive ratings, while two had neither positive or negative net ratings – net zero, if you like.
The worst performer was the Minister for Housing James Browne. Just 15 per cent of respondents felt he was doing a good job, with 59 per cent saying he was doing a poor job. Just over a quarter (26 per cent) were unsure.
