It is that time of the year again when Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers dust off their calculators and get cracking with some big sums in advance of budget day.
This year there may be some zero buttons missing as the complete elimination of one-off payments and a sharp reduction in current spending growth are likely.
In today’s lead story Political Editor Pat Leahy reports that the one-off payments that have benefited the average worker by about €1,000 each are set to be pulled back as part of a restrained budget in the face of economic uncertainty.
Discussions between Minister for Finance Mr Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure Mr Chambers and the Taoiseach and Tánaiste continued last night at Government Buildings.
They also considered the State’s response to the threat of 30 per cent tariffs on EU exports to the United States.
Sources said the elimination of the one-off payments of recent years – in the shape of energy credits and double welfare and child benefit payments – has been agreed by Government leaders, though they also say this will entail significant political difficulty for the Coalition.
And as Leahy reports, it is likely to be challenged internally as the budget approaches.
There is also wide agreement that the increases in current spending of 8 to 9 per cent in recent years will be reduced significantly, perhaps towards 5 per cent, though this will have implications for budgetary questions such as the increase in welfare rates.
The policy of spending restraint is likely to be central to the summer economic statement - which sets out the broad fiscal parameters the Government has for the Budget – which is due to be published next week.
The statement is usually delivered at the start of July, but has been delayed by internal wrangles and uncertain global outlook, further evidenced by US president Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs over the weekend.
As Jack Power and Martin Wall report on the business pages, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic has warned that EU goods being slapped with 30 per cent tariffs as mooted by Trump would realistically cut off the bloc’s ability to keep trading with the United States as it has done for years.
While the EU will seek to use the time before Mr Trump’s August 1st deadline for the new tariffs to find a negotiated solution, the European Commission is preparing its own set of tariffs if talks fail.
Meanwhile, Tánaiste Simon Harris is set to brief Cabinet on the latest tariff developments today and how Ireland’s focus is to avoid a “full-blown trade war”.
He will tell Ministers that US tariffs of 30 per cent could have a significant impact on the economy, including potential job losses at a faster pace.
The Department of Finance calculators are out for all of those hard sums too as officials seek to model the potential impact of such high tariffs on the economy and jobs.
Presidential election race to step up a gear
It has been lethargic for months but the presidential race is set to step up a gear with the likelihood that there will be two declared candidates in the race by the end of the day.
The deadline for nominations for anyone seeking to run in the presidential election for Fine Gael closes this afternoon.
It is widely expected that former European Commissioner and MEP Mairéad McGuiness will put her name forward and will be the only nominee unless there is a last-minute surprise.
If that all plays out as expected she will join left-wing Galway West Independent TD Catherine Connolly in the fray.
Connolly announced her intention to run last week and she will today address the Labour Party as she prepares her bid for Áras an Uachtaráin.
Though as we reported last week she is in touching distance of the 20 Oireachtas signatures she needs to get on the ballot paper even without her former party’s support.
Best Reads
The largest overhaul of the immigration and asylum system in a generation could end up mired in legal challenges, administrative dysfunction and human rights violations, the State’s human rights watchdog warns. Kitty Holland reports.
Ministers have been facing pressure from property owners and politicians to ease the planned crackdown on short-term letting as part of efforts to free up homes for the long term rental market amid arguments from some that ‘rural self-catering businesses didn’t cause the housing crisis’.
Sarah Burns reports on Donegal’s Titanic - the sinking housing estate of Radharc An Seascan and how fifteen homes built on a peat bog have been left to rot since they began subsiding 15 years ago.
The hidden benefits of the Irish diet and how strawberries, black tea and potatoes can boost your health are detailed on the opinion pages by William H Li and Ruth Freeman. Hops in beer even makes the list, though do not get too excited - the benefits come from the hops, not the alcohol itself, and even then you’d need to consume a lot of hops to get the benefits.
Playbook
The Cabinet is meeting this morning. You can find our tee-up story here including how Ministers will be briefed on the US tariff threats, plans for large scale trade missions, and be updated on the compensation scheme for failings in mental health services for children and young people in south Kerry here.
Dáil proceedings kick off at 2pm with Leaders’ Questions
Government Business in the afternoon (from 3.49pm) is a motion seeking Dáil approval of the order for the Commission of Investigation on the handling of historical child sexual abuse in schools.
Sinn Féin have a motion on endometriosis care in Ireland which will be debated from 7.21pm.
Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is due to take Parliamentary Questions from 9.21pm.
The Seanad will debate legislation on the Bereaved Partner’s Pension and another Bill on Planning and Development from 4.30pm.
It is a very busy day in committeeland.
The Committee on Fisheries is examining planning challenges in offshore renewable energy and will hear from representatives of the wind energy sector and the Maritime Area Regulatory Authority. The meeting starts at 11am.
The Committee on Foreign Affairs is continuing its pre-legislative scrutiny of the general scheme of the Israeli Settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (Prohibition of Importation of Goods) Bill 2025. Former minister for justice Alan Shatter, a prominent member of Ireland’s Jewish community, is due to appear, as is Maurice Cohen, the chairman of the Jewish Representative Council of Ireland. The committee will later hear from the Irish Palestine Solidarity Campaign and, Sadaka – The Ireland Palestine Alliance. The public session begins at 3pm.
Officials from the Economic and Social Research Institute (Esri) will be quizzed by the Committee on Budgetary Oversight from 3pm.
The Committee on Housing will be looking at issues facing the residential rental sector, also from 3pm. Among those due to attend are representatives of Threshold, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers, The Irish Property Owners Association and the Residential Tenancies Board. Our preview story is here.
Later in the evening (6pm) Minister for Housing James Browne is before the committee in relation to regulations on street furniture fees and revised spending estimates for his Department.
Officials from the Department of Justice are due before the Committee on Justice to brief members on various legislation including the National Cyber Crime Security Bill 2024.
The Committee on Further and Higher Education will be examining the issue of student accommodation with officials from the Department at 6pm.
The full Dáil, Seanad and committees schedule can be found here
